NFL Week 5 Predictions & Picks

Arizona at +228 is the only price on this board that pays more than the market's own read, and that is where our small-stake lean sits.

Minnesota is the 4-0 favorite, but the only price on this board that pays more than the market's own read is the Under 41.5 at +104.

Kirk Cousins has 11 touchdown passes to Drake Maye's four, yet Las Vegas is the dog, and we are taking the Raiders +3.5 at +104 (Novig).

Chicago is the favorite at a price that barely bends, and Bears -1.5 at +104 is the one number on this board paying more than the market's own read.

Baltimore at +160 is the only price on this board that pays more than the market's own read, and that is where the Desk leans.

The only price in this game that pays more than the market's own read is Denver -3.5 at +108, and we are taking it.

The 3-1 Giants are the live dog in Landover, and at +174 the price pays more than the market's own read.

The market makes Pittsburgh a 56.3% favorite but prices Indianapolis like a 42.9% dog, and that gap is the bet: Colts +133 at Novig.

Cleveland is 3-1 and still getting plus money, and that gap is the whole bet: Browns moneyline +125 at Novig.

Miami is 0-4 and still the only side priced above the market's own read, but our stronger number here is the Under 42.5 at +102 (Novig).

Two 0-4 teams, a 37.5-point total, and only two prices on this board that pay more than the market's own read: we are on the Under at +106.

The market prices Philadelphia at 24.3% but pays you like 23.5%, and that gap is the whole bet: Eagles moneyline +326 at Novig.

The 3-1 Bills are the underdog in Los Angeles, and at +156 Buffalo's moneyline is the only price on the board that pays more than the market's own read.

The only price on this board that pays more than the market's own read is Seattle's moneyline at -125, and that is where our lean lives.

Cleveland at +160 is the only price on the board that pays more than the market's own read, and that is where our lean sits.

The market's own math says Houston at +150 pays slightly more than it should, and that is the only positive-expectation price on the board.

Dak Prescott is outproducing Jordan Love by every passing measure, and we still lean Green Bay at Lambeau when the number posts.

Tampa Bay's leading passer is listed Out, Aaron Rodgers has 999 yards and seven scores, and the Desk leans Pittsburgh in Week 6.

We side with the Arizona Cardinals and the +10.5 points at DraftKings, a matchup lean on a number that asks the Rams to win by 11.

Philadelphia is the shaded favorite and the only price on this board that pays what the market itself says it should: Eagles -117 at Novig.

Every price on this board bleeds money except one, and it belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders at +205.

Kansas City should win, but the Chargers at +350 is the only price on this board that pays more than the market's own math.

Tennessee is winless, yet the Titans' +264 moneyline at Novig is the only price on this board that pays at least what the market itself implies.

The market is taxing almost every ticket here, which is why our lean is Under 44.5 at +100 (Novig), the one price that isn't charging a toll.

Maye's seven interceptions and a 43.5 total point us to the Under at -105 on DraftKings, the smallest expected loss on the board.

Chicago is favored on the road with its leading passer listed Out, and that gap pushes us to Atlanta +1.5 (-105) at Caesars as a matchup lean.

San Francisco is priced like a heavy favorite, but the only number paying close to fair is the Under 49.5 at -110 (Caesars).