Bengals vs Falcons Prediction & Odds (Nov 8)

Falcons vs Bengals Prediction: Long Flights, Thin Edges

Eighty-three percent of moneyline tickets are on the Cincinnati Bengals. The price still says they win only about 62% of the time. Both teams crossed six time zones east for a neutral-site game at Santiago Bernabéu. The Atlanta Falcons flew 4,437 miles from Tampa. The Bengals flew 4,130 miles from home after an overtime game. Both sides had six days of rest. Kickoff is Sunday, November 8 at 9:30 AM ET on NFL Net. Who is better is not our question. We want to know whether any price on this board pays more than it should.

Who Is Favored to Win Bengals vs Falcons?

The Bengals are the favorite. As of publication they are 5-2, second of four in the AFC North and half a game back of the division lead. The Falcons are 3-5, third of four in the NFC South, also half a game back. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin, not just won the game), Cincinnati is 5-4-1 over 10 graded games but only 2-4-1 in its 7 games as the favorite.

Atlanta is 4-7 against the spread over 11 graded games. In per-game averages, the Bengals put up 360 total yards and 5.8 yards per play over 10 stored games. The Falcons put up 319.73 yards and 5.27 per play over 11, with 1.91 turnovers a game to Cincinnati's 1.4.

Players to Watch

Joe Burrow has played all 7 Bengals games and averages 302.1 passing yards, 2.9 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions per game. He has averaged 330.8 passing yards per game over his last five. Michael Penix Jr. has played 6 of Atlanta's 8 games and averages 213.7 yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game, with 205.2 per game over his last five. Atlanta's counterpunch is the run game, at 121.91 rushing yards per game over 11 stored games. Bijan Robinson played 78% of snaps last game, and Drake London played 100%.

What Is the Bengals vs Falcons Spread?

Start with the Bengals vs Falcons odds on the moneyline, which is simply a bet on who wins. For Bengals odds, the best is -165 at Wynn. A $100 bet there profits $60.61. The spread is a head start. The best prices sit at two different books, which is why we shop. On line moves, the total dropped from 53 to 52 at three books within five minutes. Betparx also moved it from 52.5 to 51.5 at 8:12 AM ET, and nine more books followed. The spread on Atlanta moved from 3.5 to 3 at three books.

Where the Value Is

The vig is the book's built-in fee. Remove it and the market reads Bengals 62.4%, Falcons 37.6%. Break-even is the win rate a price needs to avoid losing money. Bengals -165 needs 62.3%. Our rating gives Cincinnati 64%, which is context only.

Is Ja'Marr Chase Playing?

Ja'Marr Chase is listed questionable (concussion), and Tee Higgins is questionable (groin). Neither is decided until inactives before kickoff. Center Connor Lew and safety Kyle Dugger are out, and Cashius Howell and Andrei Iosivas are on injured reserve. For Atlanta, backup QB Andy Dalton, cornerbacks Billy Bowman Jr. and C.J. Henderson, and Drake Jackson are out. Tackle Jake Matthews is questionable (groin), and Za'Darius Smith is questionable, listed with concussion and neck.

The Pick

We take the Bengals moneyline at -165 at Wynn. A worse price would erase it. That is the whole lesson: the number matters more than the name.

The Prediction

Burrow's per-game passing over 7 games outpaces anything Atlanta has shown. If Chase and Higgins are active, the Falcons' thinned secondary is stretched. Our call for this Bengals vs Falcons prediction: Bengals 27, Falcons 23. That adds to 50, under the 52.5 total, though we are not betting the total. That is the read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.