Heisman odds 2026: Trophy favorites
As of October 15, 2026 at 6:35 PM ET: Jeremiah Smith of Ohio St. is the Heisman Trophy favorite at -122 on Kalshi, an implied 55% chance, ahead of Darian Mensah of Miami (FL) at +809 (11%) and CJ Carr of Notre Dame at +1150 (7.5%). These are live Kalshi quotes converted to American odds.
Updated October 15, 2026 at 6:35 PM ET. Source: Kalshi market data (a CFTC-regulated prediction market). Our sportsbook odds feed does not carry award markets, so these are exchange prices, not a sportsbook line. Market data, not a pick. 21+.
Heisman Trophy odds board
Every Heisman contender with a two-sided Kalshi quote, favorites first.
| # | Player | School | Yes bid / ask | American odds | After Kalshi fee | Implied chance |
|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Smith | Ohio St. | 54¢ / 55¢ | -122 | -131 | 55% |
| 2 | Darian Mensah | Miami (FL) | 10¢ / 11¢ | +809 | +756 | 11% |
| 3 | CJ Carr | Notre Dame | 7¢ / 8¢ | +1150 | +1074 | 7.5% |
| 4 | Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | 5¢ / 6¢ | +1567 | +1464 | 5.5% |
| 5 | Gunner Stockton | Georgia | 4¢ / 5¢ | +1900 | +1775 | 4.5% |
| 6 | Keelon Russell | Alabama | 3¢ / 4¢ | +2400 | +2243 | 3.5% |
| 7 | Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma St. | 2¢ / 3¢ | +3233 | +3021 | 2.5% |
| 8 | Josh Hoover | Indiana | 2¢ / 3¢ | +3233 | +3021 | 2.5% |
| 9 | Jesse Legree | Oregon St. | 1¢ / 2¢ | +4900 | +4579 | 1.5% |
| 10 | Julian Sayin | Ohio St. | 1¢ / 2¢ | +4900 | +4579 | 1.5% |
| 11 | Malachi Toney | Miami | 1¢ / 2¢ | +4900 | +4579 | 1.5% |
Kalshi prices as of October 15, 2026 at 6:35 PM ET. American odds are the Yes ask (the price you would pay now) converted before fees; the next column nets out Kalshi's published taker fee. Implied chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask, and the board is ranked by the highest bid. Rows marked "wide quote" have more than 10 cents between bid and ask, so they show the range only.
Also quoted further down the board (long shots with no bid, asking 2¢ or less): Aaron Philo, Ahmad Hardy, Anthony Colandrea, Arch Manning, Austin Mack, Austin Simmons, Bear Bachmeier, Bo Jackson, Brendan Sorsby, Bryce Underwood, Byrum Brown, Charlie Becker, CJ Bailey, Colin Simmons, Dante Moore, Demond Williams Jr., Devon Dampier, Dylan Raiola, Faizon Brandon, Jadan Baugh, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Jayden Maiava, John Mateer, Kevin Jennings, Kewan Lacy, LaNorris Sellers, Lincoln Kienholz, Marcel Reed, Mason Heintschel, Nico Iamaleava, Rocco Becht, Sam Leavitt, Wayne Knight, Will Hammond, William “Pop” Watson III, Kamario Taylor.
How to read these odds. Each row is a Kalshi contract that pays $1 if that person wins the award. Its price in cents is the market's implied chance: 25 cents is about a 25% chance. In American odds, a plus number is the profit on a $100 bet (+300 wins $300) and a minus number is what you risk to win $100 (-150 risks $150). Right now Jeremiah Smith costs 55¢ to buy, which is -122 before fees. The prices across every name add up to more than 100% because of the gap between bids and asks, and Kalshi charges a taker fee (0.07 x price x (1 - price) per contract), which is why the after-fee column is a little worse. Convert any price yourself with the
prediction market odds converter.
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Who is the Heisman favorite right now?
Jeremiah Smith (-122, about 55%) leads the board, with Darian Mensah (+809, about 11%) and CJ Carr (+1150, about 7.5%) next. The table above updates through the season from Kalshi's live quotes, so the order can change after any Saturday.
Heisman predictions: what the market expects
The Wise Guy Team does not post a Heisman pick. The best public read of who will win is the price itself: a contract trading at 30 cents says the market gives that player about a 30% chance. Heisman markets react to three things: production in big games, the team's record (most winners come from playoff contenders), and the national story voters see on Saturday nights. A player can move from a long shot to the top of the board in two weeks, and back.
How do Heisman odds work?
A Heisman bet is a futures bet: you pick the winner before the award is decided, and it pays only if that player wins. On a sportsbook it shows as American odds; on Kalshi it is a contract priced in cents that pays $1 if the player wins. The two are the same idea in different units, and the table converts Kalshi's prices to American odds so you can compare them with any sportsbook futures price you see. If you hold a Kalshi contract you can also sell it before December at the current price.
How is the Heisman Trophy decided?
The Heisman Trust's electorate (about 870 media voters, every living former winner, and one combined fan vote) ranks three players on each ballot, scored 3, 2 and 1 points. Finalists are announced in early December, after conference championship weekend, and the trophy is presented at a ceremony in New York in mid-December. Quarterbacks have won most Heismans this century, though other positions break through: Travis Hunter won in 2024 as a two-way receiver and cornerback.
Why do Heisman odds move so much?
Because the field is wide and the season is short. Early in the year dozens of players are priced at a few cents, and one big performance on national television can double a price. Injuries and losses drop prices just as fast. That is why the timestamp at the top matters: a Heisman price from two weeks ago is old news.
Heisman odds vs college football playoff odds
Heisman odds price a player; college football playoff odds price a team to win the national championship. They are linked, since the Heisman usually goes to a star on a contender, but they are separate markets. For this week's games, see our college football picks and predictions, the full college football odds board and college football betting splits.
Related pages
Frequently asked questions
What are the Heisman odds right now?
Jeremiah Smith leads at -122 on Kalshi (about a 55% implied chance), followed by Darian Mensah at +809, as of October 15, 2026 at 6:35 PM ET. The table on this page lists every quoted contender and updates through the season.
Where do these Heisman odds come from?
From Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US prediction market. Our sportsbook odds feed carries championship futures but not award markets, so we show Kalshi's live quotes and convert them to American odds and implied chance. Sportsbook Heisman prices will differ, and they include the book's margin.
How do you read Heisman odds?
A plus number is the profit on a $100 bet: +500 wins $500 and implies about a 17% chance. A Kalshi price in cents is the implied chance directly: 17 cents is about 17%. Prices across all players add up to more than 100% because of the bid and ask gap and fees.
When is the Heisman Trophy awarded?
In mid-December, at a ceremony in New York after conference championship weekend. The finalists are announced in early December, and a Heisman futures position settles once the winner is named.
Who votes for the Heisman Trophy?
About 870 media voters, every living former Heisman winner, and one combined fan vote. Each ballot ranks three players, scored 3, 2 and 1 points, and the most points wins.
Is this a Wise Guy Team Heisman pick?
No. This page shows market prices only. The Wise Guy Team posts no Heisman play; our documented daily plays are posted separately and every one is tracked, win or loss.
21+ (or the legal age where you live). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. These are market prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, shown for information and education; they are not betting advice and not a Wise Guy Team play. Kalshi sets its own eligibility, and its sports contracts are not available in every state. Wise Guy Team is not a sportsbook or exchange and does not accept wagers. See our responsible gambling page.