What Is Closing Line Value (CLV)?

Closing line value, or CLV, measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line, the final odds right before the event starts. Consistently beating the closing line is one of the strongest signs that a bettor is finding real value.

How do you measure closing line value on a price?

Definition. Closing line value is the gap between the implied probability you paid and the closing line's implied probability.

Worked example. -105 implies 105 / 205 = 51.22 percent. -120 implies 120 / 220 = 54.55 percent. The difference, 54.55 minus 51.22, is 3.33 points: your ticket paid as if the side won 51.22 percent of the time while the market closed at 54.55 percent. Both include the vig, so compare like with like.

Why the closing line matters

The closing line is the market's sharpest, most-informed price, because it reflects all the money and information bet up to kickoff. If you regularly get a better number than the close, you are consistently ahead of the market. That is a more reliable measure of skill than your win-loss record, which is noisy over small samples.

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A worked example

You bet a team at +3.5 on Tuesday. By kickoff the line has moved to +2.5. You got closing line value: your +3.5 is better than the +2.5 close, so you beat the market. Over hundreds of bets, positive CLV tends to show up as profit, even when short-term results swing against you. Our tools measure it with the vig removed from the close, so paying the vig at a fair close counts against you.

How to get CLV

Bet early when you spot value before the market catches up, shop across books to grab the best available number, and act on news before lines adjust. Tracking your CLV, not just your record, tells you whether your process is sound long before the bankroll confirms it.

In the Wise Guy tools

Closing line value (CLV)

Did you get a better price than the final price before the game? Beating the close often is one of the best signs a bettor has a real edge.

Example: You bet a side at +120 and it closes at +105 with the vig removed: you beat the close.

How our tools use it: The closing line is the last price before the scheduled start: the market's best estimate, after all the betting. CLV here is devigged: the vig is removed from the close first (the median no-vig price of 2 or more books quoting both sides, fresh quotes only), then compared with the implied chance of the price the board flagged, in probability points.

Paying the vig at a fair close is negative CLV. The close is the latest one captured in the last 40 minutes before the start. Closes captured before Oct 20 used a vig-inclusive price and are shown as not comparable. In the past-season replay, a close stamped at or before the moment the price was first seen is not used. CLV is a research signal, not proof of an edge.

Frequently asked questions

Why is closing line value important?

It shows whether you beat the market's sharpest price. Consistent positive CLV is the best early indicator of long-term profitability.

Can you profit with negative CLV?

Occasionally over small samples, but it is not sustainable. If you regularly bet worse than the closing line, the math works against you over time.

Your next step

1Learn itClosing Line Value (CLV) (this page)
2Apply itHow to find value bets →
3Run itNo-Vig Calculator →
4Master itDay 20: Sharp action, handle and line movement →

Related terms

Expected Value (+EV): Expected value, or EV, is the average amount a bet would win or lose if you placed it many times over.
Reverse Line Movement: Reverse line movement, or RLM, is when a betting line moves toward the side getting the smaller share of bets.
Vig (Juice): Vig, short for vigorish and also called juice, is the commission a sportsbook builds into its odds.
Line Shopping: Line shopping means comparing the price of the same bet across several sportsbooks and exchanges, then placing it wherever it pays the most.

No-Vig Calculator →Full glossary →

21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER. Regulated US books only.

How to use closing line value

Write down the price you got when you bet.

Note the closing price, the last number before the game starts.

Convert both to implied probability and subtract.

Track the average over many bets. Positive closing line value over a big sample is the best public sign that your prices beat the market.

Worked example: measuring closing line value

You bet a side at -110 (52.38% implied). By game time the market closes at -125 (55.56% implied).

The market moved 3.2 points of implied probability toward your side after you bet, so you beat the close by 3.2 points. Bet at -125 and watch it close at -110 and the number is negative, which is the line telling you the market disagreed.

The numbers above are an illustration of the math, not a prediction or a result.

Common questions

What is closing line value?

The difference between the price you bet and the closing price. Beating the close means the market later agreed with you.

Does positive CLV mean every bet wins?

No. It means your prices were better than the market's final view. Results on any one game still run on variance.

Where do I get closing lines?

Save the price at the time of your bet and compare it with the final price at your book. Our tracker does this comparison for plays we post.