@
Buffalo Bills play at New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday, November 15, at MetLife Stadium. As of 2:56 AM ET, Bills are 7.5-point favorites and the total is 50.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · NFL betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (NYJ) now questionable, was not listed (11:34 PM ET); Joseph Ossai (NYJ) now questionable, was not listed (11:34 PM ET); Max Mitchell (NYJ) now injured reserve, was not listed (11:34 PM ET); and 8 more changes.
Public is on Bills spread (79% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans Jets (81%).
| Book | BetsBills -7.5Jets +7.5 | MoneyBills -7.5Jets +7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsBillsJets | MoneyBillsJets |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Bills (-380) / Jets (+300)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Bills (-425) / Jets (+345)) | ||
| BetMGM (Bills (-450) / Jets (+340)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 50.5 / Under 50.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 51 / Under 51) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 51 / Under 51) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 | +7.5 |
| Total 51 | O | U |
| Moneyline | -425 | +345 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out. A separate venue from Polymarket (international), never added into its numbers.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -350Bet at ReBet → | +376Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -7.5 -104Bet at Novig → exchange price | +7.5 +102Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 50.5 | O -106Bet at Novig → exchange price | U +104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 2:56 AM ET, the spread is Bills -7.5 and the total is 50.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Bills ML | Jets ML | Bills spread | Jets spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -455 | +350 | -7.5 -114 | +7.5 -107 | O 50.5 -114 | U 50.5 -107 |
| betPARX | -455 | +350 | -7.5 -114 | +7.5 -107 | O 50.5 -114 | U 50.5 -107 |
| BetRivers | -455 | +350 | -7.5 -114 | +7.5 -107 | O 50.5 -114 | U 50.5 -107 |
| DraftKings | -380 | +300 | -7.5 -112 | +7.5 -108 | O 50.5 -120 | U 50.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | -460 | +360 | -7.5 -110 | +7.5 -110 | O 50.5 -115 | U 50.5 -105 |
| Novig | -388 | +376 | -7.5 -104 | +7.5 +102 | O 50.5 -106 | U 50.5 +104 |
| ProphetX | -385 | +370 | -7.5 -106 | +7.5 +102 | O 50.5 -107 | U 50.5 +103 |
| bet365 | -440 | +340 | -7.5 -110 | +7.5 -110 | – | – |
| BetMGM | -450 | +340 | -7.5 -112 | +7.5 -108 | – | – |
| Caesars | -440 | +340 | -7.5 -112 | +7.5 -108 | – | – |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Buffalo Bills1st in the AFC EastNew York Jets3rd in the AFC East
Geno Smith (NYJ)183/271, 2,078 YDS, 12 TD, 3 INT (9 GP)
Josh Allen (BUF)156/236, 2,027 YDS, 12 TD, 6 INT (8 GP)Ninety-seven percent of moneyline tickets in the public split are on the Buffalo Bills. The spread still drifted toward the New York Jets anyway, from Jets +8 at the open to +7.5 after 11 moves. That is a market fact, not a signal. It does tell us this Week 10 division game at MetLife Stadium is priced tighter than the crowd feels. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on CBS.
Buffalo is 7-1 and leads the AFC East with nine games left. New York is 2-7, third in the division and 5.5 games back. The last meeting was 315 days ago, and the Jets lost. The per-game averages show the gap. Buffalo gains 386.4 total yards and 6.15 yards per play over 8 stored games. The Jets gain 309.9 yards and 5.31 yards per play over 9.
The Jets do protect the ball better, at 0.78 turnovers per game against Buffalo's 1.5. Against the spread (ATS, meaning results after the point handicap is applied), Buffalo is 6-2 over 8 graded games and the Jets are 3-4-2 over 9. Buffalo has 5 days of rest after a Monday game and is on game two of a road trip, 1,010 miles from Minneapolis. The Jets have 6 days of rest after a 1,089-mile trip from Kansas City.
Josh Allen averages 253.4 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game over 8 games. He adds 34.2 rushing yards per game over his last 5. Geno Smith averages 230.9 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions per game over 9 games. Smith avoiding mistakes is the Jets' clearest path to staying close.
Start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins outright. Jets +375 at ProphetX means a $100 bet profits $367.50 after the book's fee. Next is the spread, a handicap on the margin. A $100 bet profits $92.59. The total is 50.5 combined points. Those are the best prices we found across books. Shopping like this is value left on the table if you skip it.
Every price carries the vig, the book's built-in fee. Strip it out and the market says Buffalo wins about 80.3% of the time. At -376 you only need 79% to break even. Expected value is your average result if you made this bet many times. Thin, but positive. Bills -7.5 needs 51.9% against a 51.2% cover read, minus $1.47. Jets +7.5 sits at minus $0.37. Our rating has Buffalo at 85%, context only.
For New York, Trevin Wallace is not playing. Nahshon Wright, Harrison Phillips, Joseph Ossai and Jarvis Brownlee Jr. are questionable, and ESPN also lists Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell as questionable. For Buffalo, Tyrell Shavers and Spencer Brown are not playing, and Joshua Palmer is on injured reserve. Christian Benford and Sam Franklin Jr. are questionable.
You risk $100 to profit $26.60, and you need Buffalo to win 79% of the time to break even. Take it only at -376 or better.
Our Jets vs Bills prediction: Buffalo's per-game edge in yards and efficiency wins out, while Smith keeps it respectable. Bills 27, Jets 20. That adds to 47 points, under the 50.5 total. A 7-point margin would lose a Bills -7.5 ticket, which is exactly why we stay on the moneyline number instead. That is the read on this price; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Bills is the market favorite at -350 (best price at ReBet) on the moneyline, with Jets at +376. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Buffalo Bills at New York Jets game airs on CBS. It kicks off Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET from MetLife Stadium, as part of Week 10 of the 2026 regular season.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM Eastern time at MetLife Stadium. The forecast calls for 50 degrees, a 14 mph wind from the northwest and no chance of precipitation.
The Buffalo Bills are the favorite at -376 on the moneyline, and the New York Jets are the underdog at +375. Buffalo is a 7.5-point favorite on the spread. With the vig removed, the market gives Buffalo about 80% and New York about 20%.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets NFL prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 50.5, with the over priced at -106 at Novig and the under at +104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Forecast for MetLife Stadium near game time: 52°F, wind 12 mph from the NW, 1% chance of precipitation. Source: National Weather Service, captured 2026-11-15 07:39 UTC.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NFL odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Bills (76% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), Circa money leans Jets (66%).
The spread opened Jets +8 and is now +7.5; the total has held at 51; the spread moved from 8 to 7.5 toward Jets even though 79% of tickets are on Bills.
Depth chart starters: Buffalo Bills Josh Allen, New York Jets Geno Smith.
Buffalo Bills: Alec Anderson (active), Amani Hooker (active), Christian Benford (questionable), Connor McGovern (active); New York Jets: Adonai Mitchell (questionable), Blake Freeland (active), Braelon Allen (active), Breece Hall (active).
Ron Torbert is the listed key official for this game.
On Kalshi, 94% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Bills (10265 trades, $373k traded). On Polymarket, 55% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Bills (236 trades, $17k traded). On Novig, 85% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Bills (505 trades, $43k traded). Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 14, 7:24 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.