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Miami Dolphins play at Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday, November 15, at Lucas Oil Stadium. As of 2:59 AM ET, Colts are 4.5-point favorites and the total is 37.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · NFL betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: Jalen Travis (IND) now out, was not listed (1:24 PM ET); Jaylon Carlies (IND) now out, was not listed (1:24 PM ET); Jerry Tillery (IND) now out, was not listed (1:24 PM ET); and 5 more changes.
Public is on the Over (64% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans the Under (99%).
| Book | BetsDolphinsColts | MoneyDolphinsColts |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Dolphins +4.5 / Colts -4.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Dolphins +4.5 / Colts -4.5) | ||
| BetMGM (Dolphins +4 / Colts -4) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsDolphinsColts | MoneyDolphinsColts |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Dolphins (+185) / Colts (-225)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Dolphins (+195) / Colts (-225)) | ||
| BetMGM (Dolphins (+175) / Colts (-210)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 37.5Under 37.5 | MoneyOver 37.5Under 37.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Miami Dolphins | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 | -4.5 |
| Total 37.5 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +195 | -225 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Miami Dolphins | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +194Bet at Novig → exchange price | -199Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +4.5 -102Bet at Novig → exchange price | -4.5 +100Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 37.5 | O +104Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -106Bet at Caesars → |
As of 2:59 AM ET, the spread is Colts -4.5 and the total is 37.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Dolphins ML | Colts ML | Dolphins spread | Colts spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +175 | -220 | +4.5 -112 | -4.5 -110 | O 37.5 -113 | U 37.5 -109 |
| bet365 | +180 | -220 | +4.5 -113 | -4.5 -107 | O 37.5 -110 | U 37.5 -110 |
| betPARX | +175 | -220 | +4.5 -112 | -4.5 -110 | O 37.5 -113 | U 37.5 -109 |
| BetRivers | +175 | -220 | +4.5 -112 | -4.5 -110 | O 37.5 -113 | U 37.5 -109 |
| Caesars | +174 | -209 | +4.5 -117 | -4.5 -104 | O 37.5 -114 | U 37.5 -106 |
| Courtside | +189 | -220 | +4.5 -112 | -4.5 -108 | O 37.5 -108 | U 37.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +185 | -225 | +4.5 -112 | -4.5 -108 | O 37.5 -110 | U 37.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +175 | -215 | +4.5 -110 | -4.5 -110 | O 37.5 -105 | U 37.5 -115 |
| Fliff | +175 | -235 | +4.5 -115 | -4.5 -110 | O 37.5 -110 | U 37.5 -110 |
| Novig | +194 | -199 | +4.5 -102 | -4.5 +100 | O 37.5 +104 | U 37.5 -106 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Miami Dolphins4th in the AFC EastIndianapolis Colts3rd in the AFC South
Daniel Jones (IND)182/302, 1,722 YDS, 6 TD, 10 INT (9 GP)
Ollie Gordon II (MIA)107 CAR, 463 YDS, 4 TD (8 GP)The Indianapolis Colts are 2-7, and the market still prices them as a clear -194 favorite. The reason is a single injury line: Malik Willis, listed atop the Miami Dolphins depth chart at quarterback, is on injured reserve. Dolphins vs Colts kicks off Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS from Lucas Oil Stadium. The total sits at just 37.5 points. That is a low number for two offenses that have struggled to move the ball.
The Dolphins are 1-7, fourth of four in the AFC East, six games back with nine left. The Colts are 2-7, third of four in the AFC South, 4.5 back with eight left. This is a conference game, and the last meeting was 434 days ago, a Colts win. Both teams had six days of rest. The Dolphins traveled 1,015 miles with no time-zone change, and this is game two of a Colts home stand.
Per game, the Dolphins average 282.25 total yards, 5.06 yards per play and 1.25 turnovers over eight games. The Colts average 288.89 yards, 4.47 yards per play and 1.89 turnovers over nine. Against the spread (ATS, meaning whether a team beat the betting margin), the Dolphins are 3-4-1 in eight graded games and the Colts 4-5 in nine, just 1-3 ATS at home.
Daniel Jones has thrown for 1,722 yards, 6 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over nine games. That is 191.3 yards and 1.1 interceptions per game, with 193.6 passing yards per game over his last five. Ollie Gordon II has 463 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns over eight games, or 57.9 yards per game. His last five games jumped to 83 rushing yards per game. With Willis out, Gordon is the steadiest piece of the Dolphins offense in our data.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. The vig is the book's built-in cut. Strip it out and the market reads the Colts at 66.1% and the Dolphins at 33.9%. The spread is a handicap: the Dolphins +4 at -108 (BetMGM) win if they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer, push (stake returned) on a 4-point loss, and lose on a 5-point loss.
Break-even is 51.9%. The Colts -4 at -110 (BetMGM) need a win by 5 or more, break-even 52.4%. That spread has bounced, moving from -3.5 to -5.5 at three books within five minutes at one point. The public split shows 72% of moneyline tickets on the Colts, while 56% of the money sits on the Dolphins. Shopping books for these prices is the whole game.
Expected value is your average result per bet over many repeats. Everything else is negative: Dolphins +190 is minus $1.62, Dolphins +4 minus $3.70, Colts -4 minus $4.55, the Over minus $1.23 and the Under minus $1.68, all per $100 risked. Our rating has the Colts at 60%, below the market's figure. That is context, and a reason to keep stakes small. A pricier Colts number elsewhere would erase this edge.
The Dolphins are without Willis (injured reserve), center Aaron Brewer, receiver Jared Wayne and cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. (all Out), with receiver Chris Bell Doubtful. The Colts list Will Mallory, Jalen Travis and Jaylon Carlies as Out, plus Akeem Davis-Gaither, Mo Alie-Cox and Alec Pierce on injured reserve.
It is a thin edge, so size it small. We pass on the Colts -4: that ticket needs 52.4% and the market's cover read is only 50%.
We see a grinding game where the Dolphins struggle to pass without their listed starter and the Colts do just enough. Projection: Colts 20, Dolphins 13. That adds to 33 points, under the 37.5 total, but the Under at -102 still grades negative, so we do not bet it. That is our Colts vs Dolphins read at this number; the Desk posts a documented free daily play, and it sits right below.
Colts is the market favorite at -199 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Dolphins at +194. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts game airs on CBS. It kicks off Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM Eastern time at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game is broadcast on CBS. It is a Week 10 regular-season game between two AFC teams.
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts NFL prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 37.5, with the over priced at +104 at Novig and the under at -106 at Caesars. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Forecast for Lucas Oil Stadium near game time: 49°F, wind 3 mph from the NNW, 0% chance of precipitation. The stadium has a retractable roof, so these conditions apply only if it is open. Source: National Weather Service, captured 2026-11-15 07:39 UTC.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NFL odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Colts (65% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money leans Dolphins (54%).
Several books (3) moved the spread on home to -5 together.
Depth chart starters: Miami Dolphins Malik Willis, Indianapolis Colts Daniel Jones.
Miami Dolphins: Aaron Brewer (out), Caleb Douglas (active), Chris Bell (doubtful), Christian Haynes (active); Indianapolis Colts: A.J. Haulcy (active), Akeem Davis-Gaither (injured reserve), Alec Pierce (injured reserve), Anthony Gould (active).
Carl Cheffers is the listed key official for this game.
On Kalshi, 90% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Colts (5783 trades, $485k traded). On Polymarket, 82% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Colts (206 trades, $13k traded). On Novig, 76% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Colts (437 trades, $50k traded). Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 14, 1:29 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.