vs
New England Patriots and Detroit Lions meet at a neutral site in the NFL on Sunday, November 15, at FC Bayern Munich Stadium. As of 2:34 AM ET, Lions are 2.5-point favorites and the total is 49.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 15 sportsbooks · NFL betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: Jack Campbell (DET) now injured reserve, was not listed (5:44 PM ET); Jimmy Rolder (DET) now injured reserve, was not listed (5:44 PM ET); Kerby Joseph (DET) now out, was not listed (5:44 PM ET); and 7 more changes.
Public is on Lions moneyline (55% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans Patriots (87%).
| Book | BetsPatriots +2.5Lions -2.5 | MoneyPatriots +2.5Lions -2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsPatriotsLions | MoneyPatriotsLions |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Patriots (+124) / Lions (-148)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Patriots (+120) / Lions (-140)) | ||
| BetMGM (Patriots (+125) / Lions (-145)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 49.5Under 49.5 | MoneyOver 49.5Under 49.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | New England Patriots | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | -2.5 |
| Total 49.5 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +120 | -140 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out. A separate venue from Polymarket (international), never added into its numbers.
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread, total, team totals and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | New England Patriots | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +133Bet at Novig → exchange price | -138Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +2.5 +108Bet at Novig → exchange price | -2.5 -111Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 49.5 | O -106Bet at Novig → exchange price | U +104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 2:34 AM ET, the spread is Lions -2.5 and the total is 49.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Patriots ML | Lions ML | Patriots spread | Lions spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +120 | -148 | +2.5 -110 | -2.5 -113 | O 49.5 -112 | U 49.5 -112 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -145 | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 | O 49.5 -110 | U 49.5 -108 |
| betPARX | +120 | -148 | +2.5 -110 | -2.5 -113 | O 49.5 -115 | U 49.5 -107 |
| BetRivers | +120 | -148 | +2.5 -110 | -2.5 -113 | O 49.5 -112 | U 49.5 -112 |
| Caesars | +126 | -150 | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 | O 49.5 -110 | U 49.5 -110 |
| Courtside | +127 | -145 | +2.5 -102 | -2.5 -118 | O 49.5 -110 | U 49.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 | +2.5 -102 | -2.5 -118 | O 49.5 -112 | U 49.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -120 | O 49.5 -110 | U 49.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 | O 49.5 -115 | U 49.5 -105 |
| Novig | +133 | -138 | +2.5 +108 | -2.5 -111 | O 49.5 -106 | U 49.5 +104 |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
New England Patriots2nd in the AFC EastDetroit Lions2nd in the NFC North
Jared Goff (DET)185/273, 2,134 YDS, 15 TD, 2 INT (8 GP)
Drake Maye (NE)178/272, 2,282 YDS, 18 TD, 11 INT (9 GP)This point spread has crossed zero. The Detroit Lions opened as 1.5-point underdogs against the New England Patriots and now sit as 2.5-point favorites after 55 moves. That is a long trip for a number. The question for Sunday in Germany is whether the price still pays. Patriots vs Lions kicks off Sunday, November 15 at 9:30 AM ET at FC Bayern Munich Stadium, on Fox. It is a neutral site, so neither team is at home.
The Patriots are 5-4, second of four in the AFC East, 2.5 games back of the lead with eight to play. The Lions are 6-2, second of four in the NFC North, half a game back with nine left. They play in different conferences, so there is no season series to lean on. Both teams had six days of rest, and both crossed six time zones east.
New England traveled 3,861 miles from home. Detroit came 4,984 miles from its last game in Miami Gardens. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin), New England is 3-4-2 over nine graded games and Detroit is 3-4-1 over eight. The forecast is 50 degrees with a 6 mph wind, which should not bend the game.
Jared Goff has played all eight Lions games. He averages 266.8 passing yards, 1.9 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions per game. Drake Maye has played all nine Patriots games. He averages 253.6 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions per game. The touchdown output is close. The gap is giveaways. Team averages back it up: New England turns it over 2.11 times per game over nine games, Detroit 0.63 per game over eight. Maye is hot, though, at 285.6 passing yards per game over his last five games. Past games are context, not a promise.
Here are the Patriots vs Lions odds, line by line. The moneyline is a bet on who wins, nothing else. Detroit is the favorite at -135, so you risk $100 to profit $74.07. New England is the underdog at +133, so $100 profits $133.00. Break-even (how often a bet must win to stop losing money over time) is 57.4% for Detroit and 42.9% for New England. The Patriots vs Lions spread is a bet on the margin.
Patriots +2.5 at +108 wins if New England wins or loses by two or fewer. Lions -2.5 at -111 needs a Detroit win by three or more. A half point means no push (a tie that refunds your bet). The total is a bet on combined points: 49.5, with the Over at -104 and the Under at -102. Every best price sits at Novig. That is why we shop. The same bet at a worse number costs real money over time.
Sportsbooks build in a fee called the vig. Strip it out and the market implies Detroit at 58.1% and New England at 41.9%. Expected value is what a bet averages per $100 risked if you made it many times at those odds. Our rating has Detroit 52% to win, tighter than the market, so treat this as a thin edge, not a big one. The public split shows 60% of moneyline tickets on Detroit. That is context, not a reason.
Detroit will be without center Cade Mays and cornerback D.J. Reed. Kerby Joseph is also out and will not play. Running back Isiah Pacheco is on injured reserve. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sione Vaki are questionable. New England will be without center Ben Brown and cornerback Carlton Davis III. A.J. Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kevin Byard, Charles Woods, Brenden Schooler and Cameron Latu are questionable. Questionable means uncertain, so check the inactives Sunday morning before kickoff.
It is the only price on this board with positive expectation against the market's own no-vig read. The edge is small. At a worse price it disappears, so the number is the whole bet.
Detroit has protected the ball over eight games. New England has given it away over nine. Maye's recent form keeps this close, but the cleaner offense should decide it. We project Lions 27, Patriots 23. That adds to 50, a half point over the 49.5 total, which is exactly why we are not touching the total. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Lions is the market favorite at -138 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Patriots at +133. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions game airs on Fox. It is played at FC Bayern Munich Stadium, a neutral site, so neither team is at home. Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 9:30 AM Eastern time.
The Patriots vs Lions game kicks off Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 9:30 AM Eastern time at FC Bayern Munich Stadium. It is Week 10 of the 2026 regular season and airs on Fox in the United States.
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions NFL prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 49.5, with the over priced at -106 at Novig and the under at +104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Forecast for FC Bayern Munich Stadium near game time: 52°F, wind 3 mph from the E. Weather data: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), captured 2026-11-15 07:24 UTC.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NFL odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Lions (71% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), Circa money is also on Lions (83%).
The spread opened Lions +1.5 and is now -2.5; the total has held at 49.5; several books (3) moved the total on under to 49.5 together.
Depth chart starters: New England Patriots Drake Maye, Detroit Lions Jared Goff.
New England Patriots: A.J. Brown (questionable), Andy Borregales (active), Behren Morton (active), Ben Brown (out); Detroit Lions: Ahmed Hassanein (active), Amen Ogbongbemiga (active), Amon-Ra St. Brown (questionable), Andre Cisco (active).
Clay Martin is the listed key official for this game.
On Kalshi, 53% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Patriots (12123 trades, $250k traded). On Polymarket, 58% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Patriots (1793 trades, $40k traded). On Novig, 65% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Lions (636 trades, $53k traded). Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 14, 6:19 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.