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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Packers vs Patriots?
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: Patriots (71% of DraftKings tickets, 81% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsPackersPatriots | MoneyPackersPatriots |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Packers +3 / Patriots -3) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Packers +3 / Patriots -3) | ||
| BetMGM (Packers +3.5 / Patriots -3.5) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsPackersPatriots | MoneyPackersPatriots |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Packers (+154) / Patriots (-185)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Packers (+152) / Patriots (-175)) | ||
| BetMGM (Packers (+155) / Patriots (-190)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 44.5 / Under 44.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 45 / Under 45) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 45 / Under 45) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits ยท Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Green Bay Packers | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 | -3 |
| Total 45 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +152 | -175 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$1.6M traded ยท 38k trades ยท $1.4M open
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots
Trades
Money
Spread$1.2M traded ยท 4.4k trades ยท $463k open
Green Bay Packers +3.5New England Patriots -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 45.5$22k traded ยท 158 trades ยท $14k open
Over 45.5Under 45.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$178k traded ยท 403 trades ยท $403k open
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots
Trades
Money
Spread$301k traded ยท 464 trades ยท $556k open
Green Bay Packers +3.5New England Patriots -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 44.5$84k traded ยท 102 trades ยท $166k open
Over 44.5Under 44.5
Trades
Money
Novig
Moneyline$321k traded ยท 1.3k trades
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots
Trades
Money
Spread$509k traded ยท 1.3k trades
Green Bay Packers +3.5New England Patriots -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 44.5$49k traded ยท 404 trades
Over 44.5Under 44.5
Trades
Money
ProphetX
Moneyline$39k traded ยท 312 trades
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
New England Patriots win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
New England Patriots to win, from 167 hours before the start to 1 min before the start: Polymarket (international) 51% to 62%; Kalshi 50% to 61%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave New England Patriots, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 50% to 70%
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Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots: odds, trends and the matchup
๐ Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Green Bay Packers | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +165Wynn | -163Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +3 +113Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price | -3 -113Pregame price at Courtside → |
| Total 44.5 | O -106Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U +104Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
๐ Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Green Bay Packers
63%
New England Patriots
63%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Green Bay Packers4th in the NFC North
New England Patriots2nd in the AFC EastPlayers to watch
Drake Maye (NE)157/234, 1,983 YDS, 15 TD, 8 INT (8 GP)
Jordan Love (GB)192/312, 2,246 YDS, 16 TD, 6 INT (8 GP)How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
๐ Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
๐ New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +165 means a $100 bet profits $165 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 ยท Odds converter ยท No-vig calculator
Who Is Favored to Win Packers vs Patriots?
New England is. Both teams are 5-3 as of publication. Green Bay sits 4th of 4 in the NFC North and New England 2nd of 4 in the AFC East, each 1.5 games back of its division lead with 9 games left. Our stored per-game averages over 11 games show the Patriots gaining 352.45 yards and allowing 310.33, while the Packers gain 308.55 and allow 365.5. The run game is the gap.
Green Bay rushes for 68.09 yards per game and allows 136.5, and New England allows just 75.33. Against the spread (a team's record once the point handicap is applied), Green Bay is 6-4-1 over 11 graded games and 4-1 as an underdog. New England is 4-0-1 at home. Green Bay comes in on 9 days of rest after traveling 859 miles and crossing one time zone east. New England has 6 days of rest after a 1,225-mile trip back from Miami Gardens.
Players to Watch: Jordan Love and Drake Maye
Both quarterbacks have played all 8 games. Jordan Love averages 280.8 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game over those eight games. Drake Maye averages 247.9 yards, 1.9 touchdowns and 1 interception per game over his eight. Over their last five games they are nearly identical through the air (Love 280.4 yards per game, Maye 279.6), but Maye adds 26.8 rushing yards per game in that span. That is context, not a forecast. The forecast calls for 56 degrees, a 13 mph west wind and no rain.
What Are the Packers vs Patriots Odds and Spread?
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. The Packers are +165 at Wynn, so a $100 bet profits $165. Break-even (how often a bet must win just to stop losing money) is 62% for New England and 37.7% for Green Bay. The spread is a handicap. Patriots -3 at -113 (Courtside) wins only on a win by 4 or more. A 3-point win is a push, meaning your stake comes back.
Packers +3 at +113 (ProphetX) wins if Green Bay wins or loses by 2 or fewer. That spread opened at Patriots -2.5. Remove the vig (the book's built-in cut) and the market reads 61.7% New England, 38.3% Green Bay. The public split shows 72% of moneyline tickets on the Patriots, yet 59% of the money is on the Packers. Shop every book. These best prices are the ones we use.
Injuries
New England's secondary is short. Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Karon Prunty (hamstring) are Out, while Charles Woods and Craig Woodson are Questionable. A.J. Brown is Out per ESPN, TreVeyon Henderson is Out and Hunter Henry is Questionable. Brown and Henry each played 76% of snaps last game. For Green Bay, Travis Glover, Sean Rhyan, Zaire Franklin and Savion Williams are Out, Keisean Nixon is Questionable and Chris Brooks is on Injured Reserve. Aaron Banks was listed Doubtful (knee) on one report and Active on ESPN's latest. Check inactives before kickoff.
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Injury Report
NETreVeyon Henderson (Out), Charles Woods (Questionable), Hunter Henry (Questionable), Mack Hollins (Questionable), Greg Van Roten (Injured Reserve)
GBTravis Glover (Out), Sean Rhyan (Out), Zaire Franklin (Out), Keisean Nixon (Questionable), Chris Brooks (Injured Reserve)
More NFL matchups
Packers vs Patriots FAQ
Who was favored in Packers vs Patriots?
Patriots is the market favorite at -163 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Packers at +165. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Patriots vs Packers?
The Packers and Patriots both sit at 5-3, and the total has slid from 47.5 to 44.5 ahead of Sunday's kickoff at Gillette Stadium. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Packers vs Patriots?
The total is 44.5, with the over priced at -106 at Novig and the under at +104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Weather
Forecast for Gillette Stadium near game time: 56ยฐF, wind 13 mph from the W, 0% chance of precipitation. Source: National Weather Service, captured 2026-11-08 21:11 UTC.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits