Raiders vs Broncos Prediction & Odds (Nov 22)

Raiders vs Broncos: An 80 Percent Favorite at Altitude

The Denver Broncos are laying -385 on the moneyline. With the bookmaker's cut stripped out, the market gives them about an 80% chance to win. That is a big number for a division game. It raises the only question a bettor should care about: is any price here actually worth paying? The Las Vegas Raiders visit Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, November 22, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET on CBS, in Week 11. We walked every line so you can see which ones clear the bar.

Who Is Favored to Win Raiders vs Broncos?

As of November 12, the Broncos are 7-2 and sit 1st of 4 in the AFC West. The Raiders are 4-5, 3rd of 4 in the same division. A week of football sits between now and kickoff, so those records can still move. The books make Denver a clear home favorite and Las Vegas a heavy underdog. Broncos vs Raiders is a division matchup, but the market is not pricing it as close.

Players to Watch

Bo Nix runs the Denver offense. Over nine games, all nine of the team's games, he is 174 of 287 for 1,730 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Per game, that works out to about 192.2 yards, 1.2 touchdowns and 0.4 interceptions. It is a steady profile more than an explosive one. For Las Vegas, the listed passing leader is Fernando Mendoza at 6 of 8 for 48 yards over three games, a small sample that tells us very little. The depth chart lists Kirk Cousins at quarterback, with Aidan O'Connell out. Running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers are listed active.

Raiders vs Broncos Odds and Spread, Line by Line

If you searched broncos odds or raiders odds, here is the full board. Start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins outright. A minus sign marks the favorite. Broncos -385 at Bally Bet means you risk $100 to profit $25.97. A plus sign marks the underdog. Those are the best prices we found across the books we track. The same bet pays differently at different shops, so shopping matters.

Next, the point spread, a bet on the margin of victory. Raiders +8.5 at -109 (Caesars) wins if Las Vegas wins outright or loses by 8 or fewer. It loses on a 9-point loss. Broncos -8.5 at -109 (Caesars) wins only if Denver wins by 9 or more, so an 8-point win loses. The half point means there is no push (a tie that refunds your stake).

Finally, the total, a bet on combined points, sits at 40.5. Under 40.5 at -105 (FanDuel) profits $95.24 and breaks even at 51.2%.

Where the Value Is

The vig, also called juice, is the bookmaker's built-in cut. Remove it and the market reads this game at about 79.9% Broncos, 20.1% Raiders. Break-even is the win rate a price needs so you do not lose money over time. Expected value is your average result per bet if you could make it thousands of times. That is an average, not a payout. So treat this as a thin edge that depends on the number. Any worse price shrinks it toward zero.

Who Is Out for Raiders vs Broncos?

Denver will be without four players: safety Brandon Jones, Talanoa Hufanga, Kris Abrams-Draine and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Riley Moss is questionable, which means uncertain. Las Vegas will be without quarterback Aidan O'Connell and has Patrick Johnson on injured reserve. Three Raiders are questionable: Trey Zuhn III, Folorunso Fatukasi and Thomas Booker IV. Final designations arrive in the days before the Sunday kickoff.

The Pick

Broncos moneyline at -385, best at Bally Bet. Small, but positive. Shop it hard, because a worse number eats the edge. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.

The Prediction

Our broncos vs raiders prediction: Denver handles business at home behind Nix's steady passing, and the Raiders, with O'Connell out, do not have enough to flip it. We project Broncos 23, Raiders 16. That adds up to 39 points, under the 40.5 total, though we are not betting the total since both sides grade negative. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.