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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Lions vs Dolphins?
DraftKings bettors lean Lions on the spread (88% of tickets).
| Book | BetsLionsDolphins | MoneyLionsDolphins |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Lions -6.5 / Dolphins +6.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Lions -6 / Dolphins +6) | ||
| BetMGM (Lions -6.5 / Dolphins +6.5) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsLionsDolphins | MoneyLionsDolphins |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Lions (-298) / Dolphins (+240)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Lions (-310) / Dolphins (+260)) | ||
| BetMGM (Lions (-300) / Dolphins (+250)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 49.5 / Under 49.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 50 / Under 50) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 50.5 / Under 50.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Detroit Lions | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6 | +6 |
| Total 50 | O | U |
| Moneyline | -310 | +260 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$748k traded · 15k trades
Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins
Trades
Money
Spread$551k traded · 5.3k trades
Detroit Lions -6.5Miami Dolphins +6.5
Trades
Money
Total 49.5$28k traded · 256 trades
Over 49.5Under 49.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$348k traded · 375 trades · $465k open
Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins
Trades
Money
Spread$86k traded · 222 trades · $167k open
Detroit Lions -6.5Miami Dolphins +6.5
Trades
Money
Total 50.5$57k traded · 116 trades · $108k open
Over 50.5Under 50.5
Trades
Money
Novig
Moneyline$125k traded · 457 trades
Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins
Trades
Money
Spread$476k traded · 1.4k trades
Detroit Lions -6.5Miami Dolphins +6.5
Trades
Money
Total 50.5$36k traded · 273 trades
Over 50.5Under 50.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Miami Dolphins win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Miami Dolphins to win, from 168 hours before the start to 84 min before the start: Polymarket (international) 19% to 27%; Kalshi 21% to 27%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Miami Dolphins, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 10% to 30%
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Detroit Lions | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -277Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +270Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -6.5 +100Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +6.5 -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 50 | O -107Pregame price at Caesars → | U -108Pregame price at BetMGM → |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Detroit Lions
71%
Miami Dolphins
14%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Detroit Lions3rd in the NFC North
Miami Dolphins4th in the AFC EastPlayers to watch
Malik Willis (MIA)108/183, 1,268 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT (7 GP)
Jared Goff (DET)168/248, 1,964 YDS, 15 TD, 1 INT (7 GP)How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +270 means a $100 bet profits $270 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Lions vs Dolphins Prediction: The Records Say One Thing, the Number Another
The Detroit Lions are 5-2. The Miami Dolphins are 1-6. Yet the point spread has shrunk from Miami +8 at the open to +6.5 now, after 10 moves, even though 88% of tickets sit on Detroit. That gap between the records and the number is the real story of Lions vs Dolphins in Week 9 at Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, with an 83-degree forecast, 5 mph wind and a 2% chance of rain.
The Matchup: Who Is Favored to Win Lions vs Dolphins?
Detroit is favored, and clearly. Detroit sits 3rd of 4 in the NFC North, one game back of the division lead. Miami is 4th of 4 in the AFC East, five games back. Both teams come in on 6 days of rest. Detroit traveled 1,143 miles with no time-zone change. The last meeting was 449 days ago, and Miami won it.
The yardage gap is wide. Per game over 10 stored games, Detroit gains 367.7 total yards to Miami's 259.4, and Miami's defense allows 5.84 yards per play. Against the spread (ATS, meaning results once the point handicap is applied), Detroit is 5-4-1 over 10 graded games and Miami is 4-5-1 over 10.
Players to Watch: Jared Goff vs Malik Willis
Jared Goff has averaged 280.6 passing yards, 2.1 touchdowns and 0.1 interceptions per game over seven games, and 286.2 yards per game over his last five. Malik Willis has averaged 181.1 passing yards, 0.9 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game over seven games, plus 36 rushing yards per game over his last five. His legs are Miami's best path to extending drives. For Detroit, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta each played 89% of snaps last game, and Amon-Ra St. Brown played 86%.
The Numbers: Lions vs Dolphins Odds and Spread
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. The spread is a handicap on the margin. The total is 50 combined points: Over -107 is best at Caesars, Under -108 is best at BetMGM. Every best price here came from a different book than the one next to it, which is exactly why we shop.
Where the Value Is
The vig is the book's built-in cut. Strip it out and you get the market's implied probability. Expected value is your average result per bet over many repeats. Both sides of the total grade negative: Over minus $3.27, Under minus $3.70, each per $100.
Injuries
Detroit lists Cade Mays, D.J. Reed and DJ Wonnum as Out, Jack Campbell and Isiah Pacheco on Injured Reserve, and Amon-Ra St. Brown as Questionable, which means uncertain. Miami lists Darrell Baker Jr. as Out, De'Von Achane on Injured Reserve, and Jaylen Wright, Malik Herring and Kaytron Allen as Questionable. A second Miami report also has Reese Taylor and Rob Beal Jr. Out. Check final inactives before Sunday's 1:00 PM ET kickoff.
The Pick
It needs a 7-point win, and it needs to clear a 50% break-even. Play it only at that number or better.
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The Prediction
Our Dolphins vs Lions prediction leans on yardage, not records. Detroit moves the ball at 5.53 yards per play against a Miami defense allowing 5.84, while Willis averages 0.9 touchdowns per game over seven games. We project Detroit 27, Miami 19. That is 46 points, under the total of 50, and an 8-point margin that covers the 6.5. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Injury Report
MIADarrell Baker Jr. (Out), Malik Herring (Questionable), Kaytron Allen (Questionable), Jaylen Wright (Questionable), De'Von Achane (Injured Reserve)
DETCade Mays (Out), DJ Wonnum (Out), D.J. Reed (Out), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Questionable), Jack Campbell (Injured Reserve)
More NFL matchups
Lions vs Dolphins FAQ
Who was favored in Lions vs Dolphins?
Lions is the market favorite at -277 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Dolphins at +270. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Lions vs Dolphins?
The Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins game airs on Fox. Kickoff is Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Who is favored to win Lions vs Dolphins?
The Detroit Lions are favored. Detroit is -277 on the moneyline and -6.5 on the spread, with Miami at +270 and +6.5. With the vig removed, the market implies about 73% for Detroit and 27% for Miami.
What time is the Lions vs Dolphins game?
The Lions vs Dolphins game kicks off Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium. The forecast calls for 83 degrees, 5 mph wind and a 2% chance of rain.
What was the pregame read on Dolphins vs Lions?
Detroit is the clear favorite in Miami, and we lean Lions -6.5 at even money on Novig as a thin, number-driven matchup play. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Lions vs Dolphins?
The total is 50, with the over priced at -107 at Caesars and the under at -108 at BetMGM. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Weather
Forecast for Hard Rock Stadium near game time: 83°F, wind 6 mph from the NE, 1% chance of precipitation. Source: National Weather Service, captured 2026-11-08 17:56 UTC.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits