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Tampa Bay Buccaneers play at Detroit Lions in the NFL on Sunday, November 22, at Ford Field. As of 1:44 AM ET, Lions are 3.5-point favorites and the total is 47.5. Prices come from 9 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Lions ML. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 9 sportsbooks · NFL betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) now questionable, was active (5:44 PM ET); Cade Mays (DET) now out, was questionable (5:44 PM ET); D.J. Reed (DET) now out, was questionable (5:44 PM ET); and 6 more changes.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a market on this game that we can match, so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +155betPARX | -172Bet at FanDuel → |
| Spread | +3.5 -113betPARX | -3.5 +100Bet at FanDuel → |
| Total 47.5 | O -110Bet at DraftKings → | U -110Bet at DraftKings → |
As of 1:44 AM ET, the spread is Lions -3.5 and the total is 47.5, with 9 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Buccaneers ML | Lions ML | Buccaneers spread | Lions spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +155 | -190 | +3.5 -113 | -3.5 -108 | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
| bet365 | +150 | -180 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
| betPARX | +155 | -190 | +3.5 -113 | -3.5 -108 | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +155 | -190 | +3.5 -113 | -3.5 -108 | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +149 | -176 | +3.5 -114 | -3.5 -106 | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | +150 | -180 | +3.5 -115 | -3.5 -105 | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +144 | -172 | +3.5 -120 | -3.5 +100 | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
| Novig | +150 | -178 | +3.5 -122 | -3.5 -108 | – | – |
| ReBet | +145 | -180 | – | – | O 47.5 -110 | U 47.5 -110 |
Prices from 9 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3rd in the NFC SouthDetroit Lions2nd in the NFC North
Jared Goff (DET)185/273, 2,134 YDS, 15 TD, 2 INT (8 GP)
Baker Mayfield (TB)86/142, 922 YDS, 3 TD, 4 INT (6 GP)Every single price on this game carries negative expected value, from the favorite to the underdog to both sides of the total. Then add a Tampa Bay quarterback who is listed Active in one injury report and Out in another. This Buccaneers vs Lions matchup is a test of discipline more than a test of nerve. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Sunday, November 22, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. It is Week 11.
As of November 10, the Lions are 6-2 and sit 2nd of 4 in the NFC North. The Buccaneers are 3-6, 3rd of 4 in the NFC South. Those records are from publication day, and more football gets played before kickoff. Our data shows no earlier meeting between these teams this season, so there is no season series to lean on. Lions vs Buccaneers comes down to the matchup in front of us and the price.
Jared Goff has played all eight Detroit games: 185 of 273 for 2,134 yards, 15 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Per game, that is 266.8 yards, 1.9 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions. Baker Mayfield has played six of Tampa Bay's nine games: 86 of 142 for 922 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Per game, that is 153.7 yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions. In Tampa Bay's last game, tight end Cade Otton played 100% of offensive snaps, Chris Godwin 92% and Emeka Egbuka 86%. Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed Active for Detroit.
Detroit is favored. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Lions -190 at FanDuel means you risk $100 to profit $52.63. Buccaneers +164 at DraftKings means a $100 bet profits $164.00. The point spread is a margin bet. Tampa Bay +3.5 at -105 (DraftKings) wins if Tampa Bay wins outright or loses by 3 or fewer. It loses on a 4-point loss. Detroit -3.5 at -110 (Caesars) wins only if Detroit wins by 4 or more.
There is no push (tie bet) at a half point. The total is a bet on combined points: Over 47.5 at -109 (ReBet), Under 47.5 at -110 (DraftKings). Those are the best prices we found, and shopping across books is value left on the table if you skip it. Books build in a fee called the vig. Strip it out and the market reads Detroit 64% and Tampa Bay 36%.
Break-even is how often a bet must win to stop losing money. Expected value is your average result per $100 risked over many bets, not what you win on any one ticket. Tampa Bay +164 needs 37.9% but the market reads 36.2%, an average of minus $4.41. Detroit -190 needs 65.5% against 63.8%, minus $2.64. Tampa Bay +3.5 needs 51.2% against a 49.7% cover read, minus $3.06. Detroit -3.5 needs 52.4% against 50.3%, minus $3.88. The Over sits at minus $4.13 and the Under at minus $4.55. Nothing here is positive. The smallest drag per $100 risked is the Detroit moneyline.
The reports conflict. One ESPN report lists Mayfield Active, while another lists him Out with a thumb injury. Antoine Winfield Jr. is listed Questionable in one report and Out with a rib injury in another. Yaya Diaby is Out, and Jalen McMillan, Josh Hayes and Christian Rozeboom are on injured reserve. For Detroit, Kerby Joseph, DJ Wonnum, D.J. Reed, Jacob Saylors and Cade Mays are listed Out, though another ESPN report shows Wonnum, Reed and Mays Questionable. Isiah Pacheco and Jack Campbell are on injured reserve. Final designations come later in the week, before Sunday's kickoff.
Our lean is the Detroit Lions moneyline at -190 on FanDuel. Be clear on what this is. A 6-2 home team against a 3-6 visitor with quarterback uncertainty is the read. Passing is a perfectly sharp choice here.
Our Lions vs Buccaneers prediction: Detroit Lions 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. That adds up to 47 points, just under the 47.5 total, though we would not bet the total at these prices. We see Goff steady at home and Tampa Bay's passing game held in check, but the price tells us not to overpay for that view. That is the read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Lions is the market favorite at -172 (best price at FanDuel) on the moneyline, with Buccaneers at +155. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions game airs on Fox. Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET at Ford Field in Week 11 of the regular season.
The game kicks off Sunday, November 22, 2026, at 1:00 PM Eastern time. It is played at Ford Field and broadcast on Fox.
The Detroit Lions are favored. The best moneyline prices we track are Lions -190 at FanDuel and Buccaneers +164 at DraftKings. The spread is Lions -3.5, and with the vig removed the market reads Detroit at 64% and Tampa Bay at 36%.
Every price on this board costs you something, but the Detroit Lions moneyline at -190 on FanDuel costs the least, so that is our small lean at Ford Field. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 47.5, with the over priced at -110 at DraftKings and the under at -110 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NFL odds · FanDuel betting splits
Depth chart starters: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baker Mayfield, Detroit Lions Jared Goff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: David Sills (out), SirVocea Dennis (questionable), Benjamin Morrison (doubtful), Ayden Garnes (questionable).
As of Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.