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Miami Dolphins play at Buffalo Bills in the NFL on Sunday, November 22, at Highmark Stadium. As of 1:41 AM ET, Bills are 16.5-point favorites and the total is 46.5. Prices come from 9 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Over 46.5. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 9 sportsbooks · NFL betting splits
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a market on this game that we can match, so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +16.5 -109Bet at Caesars → | -16.5 -109Bet at Caesars → |
| Total 46.5 | O -105Bet at FanDuel → | U -110Bet at DraftKings → |
As of 1:41 AM ET, the spread is Bills -16.5 and the total is 46.5, with 9 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Dolphins ML | Bills ML | Dolphins spread | Bills spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +950 | -2000 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| bet365 | +1000 | -2000 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 46.5 -107 | U 46.5 -113 |
| betPARX | +950 | -2000 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +950 | -2000 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +900 | -1700 | +16.5 -109 | -16.5 -109 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | +950 | -1650 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +980 | -1800 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 46.5 -105 | U 46.5 -115 |
| Novig | +852 | -1150 | +16.5 -115 | -16.5 -115 | O 46.5 -113 | U 46.5 -117 |
| ReBet | +840 | -1695 | – | – | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
Prices from 9 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Miami Dolphins4th in the AFC EastBuffalo Bills1st in the AFC East
Josh Allen (BUF)156/236, 2,027 YDS, 12 TD, 6 INT (8 GP)
Ollie Gordon II (MIA)107 CAR, 463 YDS, 4 TD (8 GP)Sixteen and a half points. That is how far the market puts the 7-1 Buffalo Bills above the 1-7 Miami Dolphins. The total has also slid two full points since it opened. This Week 11 game kicks off Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS, and Miami arrives with quarterback Malik Willis on injured reserve. The lopsided records tell one story. The prices tell a more interesting one.
The Bills are. Those records are as of November 14, so one more week of football gets played before kickoff. Buffalo sits 1st of 4 in the AFC East. Miami sits 4th of 4. This is a division game, but our data does not include an earlier meeting this season, so we will not guess at one. No moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) is posted at the books we track. The point spread is the market's verdict: Buffalo by 16.5.
Josh Allen leads Buffalo. Over 8 games he has completed 156 of 236 passes for 2,027 yards, 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. That works out to 253.4 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Ollie Gordon II leads Miami. Over 8 games he has 463 rushing yards on 107 carries with 4 touchdowns, or 57.9 yards per game. With Willis out and no confirmed replacement in our data, Gordon is the most dependable piece of Miami's offense.
A point spread is a handicap. Buffalo -16.5 wins only if the Bills win by 17 or more, and a 16-point win loses. Miami +16.5 wins if the Dolphins win outright or lose by 16 or fewer. The half point means no push (a tie that refunds your bet). The best price on both sides is -109 at Caesars.
That means a $100 bet profits $91.74 if it wins. To break even you need to win 52.2% of the time. The total is a bet on combined points. Over 46.5 is best at -105 at FanDuel, and Under 46.5 is best at -110 at DraftKings. The total opened at 48.5 and moved to 46.5 at three books within five minutes. That is a line move, nothing more.
The no-vig number is the market's implied probability with the book's cut (the vig) removed. Here every side sits at 50%. Expected value is your average result per bet if you made it many times. The Under averages minus $4.55. So the number says no side here is positive expectation. The Over simply costs the least, and that is why line shopping matters.
Miami lists five names. Center Aaron Brewer is out and will not play. Receiver Jared Wayne is out and will not play. Cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. is out and will not play. Receiver Chris Bell is doubtful, and Willis is on injured reserve. Buffalo also lists five. Tyrell Shavers is out, and Spencer Brown, listed doubtful, is not expected to play. Cornerback Christian Benford and Sam Franklin Jr. are questionable, meaning uncertain. Joshua Palmer is on injured reserve.
We lean Over 46.5 at -105 at FanDuel. It needs to win 51.2% of the time to break even. This is a matchup opinion, not a priced edge. Allen is averaging 253.4 passing yards per game over 8 games, Miami is without Baker in its secondary, and Over bettors now get a number two points lower than the open. Keep the stake small, and shop for a better price before you bet.
We see Allen moving the ball and Miami finding some points late on Gordon's legs. Our projection is Bills 31, Dolphins 17. That adds up to 48 points, which is over 46.5. For bills vs dolphins predictions, that is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
The spread is a coin flip at a bad price, so our only lean in Dolphins vs Bills is a small one: Over 46.5 at -105 after the total dropped two points.
The Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills game airs on CBS. Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET from Highmark Stadium. Check your local CBS listing to confirm the game is shown in your market.
The Buffalo Bills are 16.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins on the point spread, with the best price on both sides at -109 at Caesars. No moneyline is posted at the sportsbooks we track for this game.
The Dolphins vs Bills game kicks off Sunday, November 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM Eastern time at Highmark Stadium. It is Week 11 of the 2026 regular season, and the broadcast is on CBS.
The spread is a coin flip at a bad price, so our only lean in Dolphins vs Bills is a small one: Over 46.5 at -105 after the total dropped two points. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 46.5, with the over priced at -105 at FanDuel and the under at -110 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NFL odds · FanDuel betting splits
Several books (3) moved the total on under to 46.5 together.
Depth chart starters: Miami Dolphins Malik Willis, Buffalo Bills Josh Allen.
Miami Dolphins: Aaron Brewer (out), Caleb Douglas (active), Chris Bell (doubtful), Christian Haynes (active); Buffalo Bills: Alec Anderson (active), Amani Hooker (active), Christian Benford (questionable), Connor McGovern (active).
As of Nov 14, 1:55 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.