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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Buccaneers vs Bears?
Public is on the Over (56% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans the Under (60%).
| Book | BetsBuccaneersBears | MoneyBuccaneersBears |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Buccaneers +6.5 / Bears -6.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Buccaneers +6 / Bears -6) | ||
| BetMGM (Buccaneers +6.5 / Bears -6.5) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsBuccaneersBears | MoneyBuccaneersBears |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Buccaneers (+235) / Bears (-290)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Buccaneers (+235) / Bears (-280)) | ||
| BetMGM (Buccaneers (+240) / Bears (-300)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 47.5Under 47.5 | MoneyOver 47.5Under 47.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits ยท Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6 | -6 |
| Total 47.5 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +235 | -280 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Novig
Moneyline$689k traded ยท 2.5k trades
Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago Bears
Trades
Money
Spread$1.3M traded ยท 4.0k trades
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5Chicago Bears -6.5
Trades
Money
Total 47.5$180k traded ยท 1.4k trades
Over 47.5Under 47.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Polymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread, total, team totals and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
Chicago Bears win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Chicago Bears to win, from 167 hours before the start to 84 min before the start: Kalshi 71% to 72%; Polymarket (international) 73% to 72%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Chicago Bears, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
KalshiPolymarket (international)Scale 60% to 80%
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Ross has an official, documented play on this game, bet with his own money and posted for members with the ticket photo. The side stays with members, so the Desk's free read comes off this page and you never get a mixed signal. The breakdown and numbers below are still free.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears: odds, trends and the matchup
๐ Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +233Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -239Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +6 -106Pregame price at Caesars → | -6 -108Pregame price at BetMGM → |
| Total 47.5 | O -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U +100Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
๐ Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
38%
Chicago Bears
75%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2nd in the NFC South
Chicago Bears2nd in the NFC NorthPlayers to watch
Caleb Williams (CHI)112/158, 1,267 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT (5 GP)
Baker Mayfield (TB)68/110, 679 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT (5 GP)How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
๐ Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
๐ New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +233 means a $100 bet profits $233 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 ยท Odds converter ยท No-vig calculator
The Matchup
Chicago is 6-2, second of four in the NFC North and half a game off the division lead. Tampa Bay is 3-5, listed second of four in the NFC South. It is a conference game, and our data has no season series to report. Per game over 11 stored games, Chicago averages 386.18 total yards and 5.51 yards per play. Tampa Bay averages 270.36 yards and 4.46 per play.
Against the spread (a team's record once the betting handicap is applied), Chicago is 8-3 over 11 graded games and Tampa Bay is 4-6-1 over 11. The schedule tilts slightly toward Tampa Bay: 6 days of rest against Chicago's 5. Chicago is coming off a Monday game in Seattle, a 1,734-mile trip that crossed two time zones east. Forecast: 51 degrees, 10 mph wind from the WNW, 0% chance of rain.
Players to Watch
Caleb Williams has thrown for 1,267 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception over five games, which works out to 253.4 yards per game. Baker Mayfield has 679 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, also over five games, or 135.8 yards per game. Both have played five games, so the per-game gap is a fair comparison: about 118 more passing yards a game for Williams. Tampa Bay's snap leaders last game were Cade Otton (100%), Chris Godwin (92%) and Emeka Egbuka (86%).
Who Is Favored to Win Buccaneers vs Bears?
Chicago. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Strip out the vig (the sportsbook's built-in cut) and the Buccaneers vs Bears odds imply about 71.2% for Chicago and 28.8% for Tampa Bay. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, lands at 72% to 28%, close to the market. The spread is a handicap on the final margin.
The Buccaneers vs Bears spread is Chicago -6 at -108 (best at BetMGM) and Tampa Bay +6 at -106 (best at Caesars). Chicago -6 needs a win by 7 or more. A win by exactly 6 is a push, meaning your stake comes back. Tampa Bay +6 wins with an upset or a loss by 5 or fewer. The consensus spread opened at -6, the total opened at 47.5, and neither has moved.
Is Baker Mayfield Playing?
Treat it as uncertain until inactives post before Sunday's 8:20 PM ET kickoff. ESPN's November 7 report lists Mayfield Active, while another report lists him Out with a thumb injury. Antoine Winfield Jr. shows the same split: Active on ESPN, Out with a rib injury elsewhere. Yaya Diaby and David Sills are Out, Benjamin Morrison is Doubtful, and Egbuka is Questionable. For Chicago, ESPN lists Williams Active, while another report has him Questionable with a hamstring injury. That report lists Kyle Monangai, T.J. Edwards, Keyshaun Elliott and Dayo Odeyingbo as Out, and Kyler Gordon as Questionable.
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Injury Report
CHITyrique Stevenson Sr. (Questionable), Malik Muhammad II (Questionable), Kyle Monangai (Questionable), Zavier Scott (Injured Reserve), Kentavius Street (Injured Reserve)
TBYaya Diaby (Out), Emeka Egbuka (Questionable), Jalen McMillan (Injured Reserve), Josh Hayes (Injured Reserve), Christian Rozeboom (Injured Reserve)
More NFL matchups
Buccaneers vs Bears FAQ
Who was favored in Buccaneers vs Bears?
Bears is the market favorite at -239 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Buccaneers at +233. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Bears vs Buccaneers?
A 6-2 Chicago offense hosts a 3-5 Tampa Bay team with a conflicting quarterback report under the Soldier Field lights on Sunday night. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Buccaneers vs Bears?
The total is 47.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at +100 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Weather
Forecast for Soldier Field near game time: 53ยฐF, wind 10 mph from the WNW, 0% chance of precipitation. Source: National Weather Service, captured 2026-11-09 01:10 UTC.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits