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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Bills vs Vikings?
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: Bills (73% of DraftKings tickets, 53% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsBillsVikings | MoneyBillsVikings |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Bills -3 / Vikings +3) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Bills -3 / Vikings +3) | ||
| BetMGM (Bills -3.5 / Vikings +3.5) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsBillsVikings | MoneyBillsVikings |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Bills (-185) / Vikings (+154)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Bills (-185) / Vikings (+160)) | ||
| BetMGM (Bills (-200) / Vikings (+165)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 45.5 / Under 45.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 45.5 / Under 45.5) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 46 / Under 46) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Buffalo Bills | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3 | +3 |
| Total 45.5 | O | U |
| Moneyline | -185 | +160 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Spread$2.0M traded · 18k trades · $2.8M open
Buffalo Bills -3.5Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Trades
Money
Total 45.5$2.2M traded · 4.8k trades
Over 45.5Under 45.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$468k traded · 1.3k trades · $760k open
Buffalo BillsMinnesota Vikings
Trades
Money
Spread$542k traded · 1.1k trades · $742k open
Buffalo Bills -3.5Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Trades
Money
Novig
Moneyline$30k traded · 485 trades
Buffalo BillsMinnesota Vikings
Trades
Money
Spread$78k traded · 346 trades
Buffalo Bills -3.5Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Trades
Money
Total 44.5$12k traded · 79 trades
Over 44.5Under 44.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Polymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread, total, team totals and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
Minnesota Vikings win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Minnesota Vikings to win, from 167 hours before the start to 5 hours before the start: Kalshi 37% to 37%; Polymarket (international) 38% to 37%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Minnesota Vikings, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
KalshiPolymarket (international)Scale 30% to 40%
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Ross has an official play on this game
Ross has an official, documented play on this game, bet with his own money and posted for members with the ticket photo. The side stays with members, so the Desk's free read comes off this page and you never get a mixed signal. The breakdown and numbers below are still free.
Official board, 3 straight winning NBA plays 3-0 every ticket posted before the game, graded in public Bonus plays, last 6 college basketball plays 5-1 every ticket posted before the game, graded in public |
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Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Buffalo Bills | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -165Wynn | +170Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -3.5 +106Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +3.5 -108Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 45.5 | O +100Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Buffalo Bills
86%
Minnesota Vikings
86%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Buffalo Bills1st in the AFC East
Minnesota Vikings1st in the NFC NorthPlayers to watch
Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN)110 CAR, 458 YDS, 2 TD (7 GP)
Josh Allen (BUF)135/205, 1,793 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT (7 GP)How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +170 means a $100 bet profits $170 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
The Matchup: Two Division Leaders at 6-1
Both teams are 6-1. The Bills lead the AFC East, the Vikings lead the NFC North, and each has 10 games left. Their styles split hard. Over 10 stored games this season, the Bills average 378.2 total yards and 6.19 yards per play per game, and they allow 4.94 yards per play.
Over the same kind of 10-game sample, the Vikings average 276.2 yards and 4.71 yards per play per game, and they allow 272.2 yards per game. The Vikings win low-scoring games. Their games went 2-8 against the over-under (the posted line for total points) in 10 games, while Bills games went 8-2. The Vikings are 5-5, including 1-3 at home.
Players to Watch
Josh Allen has played all seven of the Bills' games. Per game, he averages 256.1 passing yards, 1.6 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions. Over his last five he averages 242.2 passing yards and 35.6 rushing yards per game. For the Vikings, Aaron Jones Sr. has also played all seven games, averaging 15.7 carries, 65.4 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Over his last five he averages 62.6 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards per game. Carson Wentz is listed active on the Vikings report.
Who Is Favored to Win Bills vs Vikings?
The Bills are. The moneyline (a bet on who wins outright) has the Bills at -165, best at Wynn. A $100 bet there profits $60.61 if the Bills win. That ticket wins only if the Bills win by 4 or more, and a 3-point win loses. It opened at 44. The public split shows 79% of moneyline tickets on the Bills. That is crowd behavior, not advice.
Injuries: Kyler Murray Is Out for the Vikings
No. Murray is out, along with receiver Jauan Jennings and running back Demond Claiborne. Jennings played 69% of the snaps last game. Jay Ward and Theo Jackson are questionable for the Vikings. For the Bills, Joshua Palmer and Tyrell Shavers are out, Jordan Hancock is on injured reserve, and offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson are questionable. Check final designations before Monday's kickoff.
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Injury Report
MINDemond Claiborne (Out), Jauan Jennings (Out), Kyler Murray (Out), Jay Ward (Questionable), Theo Jackson (Questionable)
BUFTyrell Shavers (Out), Joshua Palmer (Out), Alec Anderson (Questionable), Dion Dawkins (Questionable), Jordan Hancock (Injured Reserve)
More NFL matchups
Bills vs Vikings FAQ
Who was favored in Bills vs Vikings?
Bills is the market favorite at -165 (best price at Wynn) on the moneyline, with Vikings at +170. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Vikings vs Bills?
Two 6-1 division leaders meet indoors on Monday night, and the Vikings play without quarterback Kyler Murray. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Bills vs Vikings?
The total is 45.5, with the over priced at +100 at Novig and the under at -102 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits