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Indianapolis Colts play at Houston Texans in the NFL on Thursday, November 19, at NRG Stadium. As of 2:56 AM ET, Texans are 10-point favorites and the total is 43.5. Prices come from 11 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Over 43.5. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 11 sportsbooks · NFL betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean Colts on the moneyline (55% of tickets).
| Book | BetsColts (+350)Texans (-455) | MoneyColts (+350)Texans (-455) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread, total, team totals and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +410Bet at FanDuel → | -426Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +10 -107betPARX | -10 -106Bet at Caesars → |
| Total 43.5 | O +100Bet at FanDuel → | U -110Bet at ReBet → |
As of 2:56 AM ET, the spread is Texans -10 and the total is 43.5, with 11 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Colts ML | Texans ML | Colts spread | Texans spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars | +375 | -500 | +10 -114 | -10 -106 | O 43.5 -106 | U 43.5 -114 |
| Bally Bet | +375 | -500 | +10 -107 | -10 -114 | – | – |
| bet365 | +390 | -525 | – | – | O 43.5 +100 | U 43.5 -120 |
| betPARX | +375 | -500 | +10 -107 | -10 -114 | – | – |
| BetRivers | +375 | -500 | +10 -107 | -10 -114 | – | – |
| Courtside | +360 | -440 | +10 -108 | -10 -108 | – | – |
| DraftKings | +350 | -455 | +10 -110 | -10 -110 | – | – |
| FanDuel | +410 | -550 | – | – | O 43.5 +100 | U 43.5 -120 |
| ProphetX | +390 | -455 | – | – | O 43.5 -103 | U 43.5 -110 |
| ReBet | +400 | -526 | – | – | O 43.5 -110 | U 43.5 -110 |
Prices from 11 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Indianapolis Colts3rd in the AFC SouthHouston Texans2nd in the AFC South
C.J. Stroud (HOU)181/282, 2,251 YDS, 16 TD, 2 INT (8 GP)
Daniel Jones (IND)182/302, 1,722 YDS, 6 TD, 10 INT (9 GP)Ten points. That is the gap the market puts between the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts, and the moneyline prices Houston as roughly an 82% favorite. For a bettor the real question is not who wins. It is whether any price on this board pays more than it should. Colts vs Texans kicks off Thursday, November 19, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET at NRG Stadium on Prime Video. It is the Week 11 Thursday game.
The Texans are favored. As of November 11, Houston is 3-5 and second of four in the AFC South. Indianapolis is 2-7 and third. Neither record is pretty, but the market sees two very different teams. A moneyline is a bet on who wins outright, with no points involved. Houston is the favorite at -455 and Indianapolis is the underdog at +410. The vig is the fee a sportsbook bakes into every price. Strip it out and the market reads this game about 81.9% Texans and 18.1% Colts.
The quarterback gap drives this price. C.J. Stroud has played all 8 of Houston's games. Over those 8 games he averages 281.4 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions per game, completing 22.6 of 35.3 throws. Daniel Jones has played all 9 of Indianapolis' games. Over those 9 games he averages 191.3 yards, 0.7 touchdowns and 1.1 interceptions per game. Jones is throwing more interceptions than touchdowns per game. An interception hands the other offense the ball, often with a short field. That matters for scoring.
The spread is a handicap. The Colts get 10 points, and the Texans give 10. Colts +10 at -107 (best at betPARX) wins if Indianapolis wins outright or loses by 9 or fewer. A 10-point loss is a push, which means your stake comes back. An 11-point loss loses. A $100 bet profits $93.46, and the break-even is 51.7%. Break-even is how often a bet must win just to avoid losing money over time. Texans -10 at -109 (best at Caesars) wins only if Houston wins by 11 or more.
A $100 bet profits $91.74, and it needs to win 52.2% of the time. On the moneyline, Colts +410 at FanDuel profits $410 on $100 with a 19.6% break-even. Texans -455 at DraftKings profits just $21.98 on $100 with an 82% break-even. The total is 43.5 combined points. Over +100 at FanDuel is even money: $100 profits $100, break-even 50%. Under -110 at ReBet profits $90.91, break-even 52.4%. Shop every one of these. The best price is the whole game.
Expected value is what a bet returns on average per $100 risked if you could place it thousands of times. Here is the honest read. At the market's no-vig numbers, every price on this board is negative. Colts moneyline: minus $7.78. Colts +10: a 49.2% market cover read against a 51.7% break-even, minus $4.84. Texans -10: 50.8% against 52.2%, minus $2.58. Under: minus $2.77. The Over at +100 is minus $1.86, with the market at 49.1% against a 50% break-even. That is the number we like for the matchup, but it is an opinion, not a math edge.
As of November 11, Houston lists tight end Cade Stover as Out. David Montgomery and Reed Blankenship are Questionable, which means uncertain. Jaylin Noel and Jake Hummel are on injured reserve. For Indianapolis, tackle Jalen Travis is Doubtful. Luke Rhodes, Justin Walley, A.J. Haulcy and Akeem Davis-Gaither are Questionable. Arden Key and Alec Pierce are on injured reserve. Stroud and Jones are both listed Active. Check the final report before Thursday's kickoff.
Over 43.5 at +100 at FanDuel. It is a matchup lean. Our reasoning: Stroud averages 281.4 yards per game over 8 games, and Jones gives the ball away 1.1 times per game over 9 games. Turnovers create short fields and quick points. Keep the stake small. If even money is gone, the cost rises.
We see Houston moving the ball through the air and Indianapolis adding points late. Texans 28, Colts 17. That adds up to 45 points, over the 43.5 total. That is our read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.
Texans is the market favorite at -426 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Colts at +410. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans game streams on Prime Video. Kickoff is Thursday, November 19, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET at NRG Stadium in Houston. It is a Week 11 regular season game in the AFC South.
The Houston Texans are the favorite at -455 on the moneyline (best at DraftKings). The Indianapolis Colts are the underdog at +410 (best at FanDuel). On the spread, Houston is a 10-point favorite. With the vig removed, the market reads it about 81.9% Texans and 18.1% Colts.
The Colts vs Texans game kicks off Thursday, November 19, 2026, at 8:15 PM Eastern time at NRG Stadium. The game streams on Prime Video. It is part of Week 11 of the 2026 NFL regular season.
C.J. Stroud's arm against a Colts offense that keeps throwing interceptions has us leaning Over 43.5 at even money at FanDuel, a matchup lean on a tight number. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 43.5, with the over priced at +100 at FanDuel and the under at -110 at ReBet. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Forecast for Reliant Stadium near game time: 68°F, wind 5 mph from the E, 3% chance of precipitation. The stadium has a retractable roof, so these conditions apply only if it is open. Source: National Weather Service, captured 2026-11-15 07:39 UTC.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NFL odds · FanDuel betting splits
Depth chart starters: Indianapolis Colts Daniel Jones, Houston Texans C.J. Stroud.
Indianapolis Colts: A.J. Haulcy (questionable), Akeem Davis-Gaither (questionable), Alec Pierce (injured reserve), Anthony Gould (active); Houston Texans: Azeez Al-Shaair (active), Blake Fisher (active), Braden Smith (active), Brevin Jordan (active).
As of Nov 11, 4:24 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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