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Cincinnati Bengals play at Washington Commanders in the NFL on Monday, November 23, at Northwest Stadium. As of 1:38 AM ET, Bengals are 4-point favorites and the total is 51.5. Prices come from 8 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Bengals ML. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 8 sportsbooks · NFL betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: Lucas Patrick (WSH) now out, was not listed (10:09 PM ET); Ricky Barber (WSH) now out, was not listed (10:09 PM ET); Tanoa Togiai (WSH) now out, was not listed (10:09 PM ET).
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a market on this game that we can match, so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread, total, team totals and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -205Bet at DraftKings → | +176Bet at FanDuel → |
| Spread | -4 -108Bet at BetRivers → | +4 -113Bet at BetRivers → |
| Total 51.5 | O -108Bet at BetRivers → | U -110Bet at DraftKings → |
As of 1:38 AM ET, the spread is Bengals -4 and the total is 51.5, with 8 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Bengals ML | Commanders ML | Bengals spread | Commanders spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | -210 | +175 | -4.5 +101 | +4.5 -121 | O 51.5 -110 | U 51.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | -210 | +176 | -4.5 +100 | +4.5 -120 | O 51.5 -110 | U 51.5 -110 |
| Novig | -212 | +170 | -4.5 -104 | +4.5 -133 | O 51.5 -113 | U 51.5 -117 |
| Bally Bet | -210 | +170 | – | – | O 51.5 -108 | U 51.5 -113 |
| betPARX | -210 | +170 | – | – | O 51.5 -108 | U 51.5 -113 |
| BetRivers | -210 | +170 | – | – | O 51.5 -108 | U 51.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | -205 | +170 | – | – | O 51.5 -110 | U 51.5 -110 |
| ReBet | -220 | +162 | – | – | O 51.5 -110 | U 51.5 -110 |
Prices from 8 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Cincinnati Bengals2nd in the AFC NorthWashington Commanders3rd in the NFC East
Jayden Daniels (WSH)138/213, 1,499 YDS, 10 TD, 2 INT (7 GP)
Joe Burrow (CIN)219/296, 2,386 YDS, 23 TD, 6 INT (8 GP)Joe Burrow is averaging 298.3 passing yards a game over eight games. The market wants you to risk $205 to win $100 for the right to back him. That price says the Cincinnati Bengals win this game about two times in three. Is that fair, or just expensive? The Washington Commanders host at Northwest Stadium on Monday, November 23 at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN. This Bengals vs Commanders matchup is a clean lesson in why a likely winner and a good bet are not the same thing.
The Bengals are favored. As of November 14, they are 6-2, second of four in the AFC North. The Commanders are 3-5-1 (the 1 is a tie), third of four in the NFC East. These teams play in different conferences, so there is no season series to lean on. This is Week 11, and the gap between those records drives the price.
Burrow has played all 8 of the Bengals' games. Per game, he averages 27.4 completions on 37 attempts, 298.3 yards, 2.9 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions. That offense scores in bunches. Jayden Daniels has played 7 of the Commanders' 9 games. Per game, he averages 214.1 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions. On a per-game basis, Burrow throws roughly twice as many touchdown passes, while Daniels throws fewer picks. Daniels is listed Active, so the Commanders' starter is expected to play.
Start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins outright. The best Bengals price is -205 at DraftKings. A $100 bet profits $48.78 if it wins. The break-even is 67.2%, meaning the Bengals must win that often for the bet to stop losing money over the long run. The best Commanders price is +176 at FanDuel. A $100 bet profits $176.00, and the break-even is 36.2%, the lowest break-even on this board.
The point spread handicaps the margin. Bengals -4 at -108 (BetRivers) wins only if they win by 5 or more. A 4-point win is a push, which means your stake comes back. A 3-point win loses. Its break-even is 51.9%. Commanders +4 at -110 (Circa) wins if they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer, with a break-even of 52.4%. The total is 51.5 combined points: Over -108 at BetRivers, Under -110 at DraftKings. Those prices include the vig, the sportsbook's built-in fee. Every number here is the best one we found across books, and shopping for it is extra value saved.
Remove the vig and the market reads this game as about 65.7% Bengals to 34.3% Commanders. Expected value is what a bet returns on average per $100 risked if those odds hold. Commanders +176 is minus $5.38. Commanders +4 is minus $3.44, Bengals -4 is minus $4.82, the Over is minus $3.70 and the Under is minus $4.55. Nothing is positive. Our read is that there is no edge here. The Bengals moneyline carries the smallest expected cost per $100 risked, so that is where a lean belongs if you play at all.
The Commanders list five players Out: quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (not the starter), cornerback Isaac Yiadom, Tanoa Togiai, Ricky Barber and Lucas Patrick. Their report also shows tight end Colson Yankoff Out and receiver Dyami Brown on injured reserve (sidelined for an extended stretch). The Bengals list Kyle Dugger Out, plus receiver Andrei Iosivas, tackle Brian Parker II, Jalen Davis and one more player on injured reserve. Running back Chase Brown is Active.
Bengals moneyline at -205 at DraftKings. Keep the stake small. Do not lay worse than -205, because every step past it raises that 67.2% bar.
Burrow's per-game production over 8 games is the best thing on this field, and the Bengals should control the night. Our Bengals vs Commanders prediction is Bengals 27, Commanders 21. That adds up to 48 points, under the 51.5 total. We are not betting the total or the spread off that score. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Bengals is the market favorite at -205 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Commanders at +176. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders game airs on ESPN. Kickoff is Monday, November 23, 2026 at 8:15 PM Eastern, and the game is played at Northwest Stadium in Week 11 of the 2026 regular season.
The Cincinnati Bengals are the favorite. Their best moneyline is -205 at DraftKings, and the Washington Commanders are the underdog at +176 at FanDuel. With the vig removed, the market reads it as about 65.7% Bengals to 34.3% Commanders. The best spread is Bengals -4.
The Bengals vs Commanders game kicks off Monday, November 23, 2026 at 8:15 PM Eastern time. It is broadcast on ESPN from Northwest Stadium, home of the Washington Commanders.
Joe Burrow's Bengals look like the better team, but at -205 nothing on this board is a value bet, so our lean is the Bengals moneyline with a small stake. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 51.5, with the over priced at -108 at BetRivers and the under at -110 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NFL odds · FanDuel betting splits
Depth chart starters: Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow, Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels.
Cincinnati Bengals: Andrei Iosivas (injured reserve), Barrett Carter (active), Brian Parker II (injured reserve), Bryan Cook (active); Washington Commanders: Antonio Williams (active), Athan Kaliakmanis (out), Austin Ekeler (active), Ben Sinnott (active).
As of Nov 14, 7:49 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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