vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before kickoff .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -0.5 | -0.75 | n/a |
| Total | 3.5 | 3.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| Charlotte FC win | Draw | Orlando City SC win |
|---|---|---|
| -107Pregame price at Fanatics → | +355Pregame price at Polymarket → exchange price | +240Pregame price at BetRivers → |
| Total goals 3.5: O -137 (BetRivers) · U +122 (Kalshi) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Charlotte FCDLDLWOrlando City SCDDWDW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 71 |
| New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 58 |
| Inter Miami CF | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 52 |
| Charlotte FC | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
Charlotte FC is -107 at home. That is basically a coin flip, except a soccer coin has three sides. Orlando City SC lands here on two days of rest, 586 miles out of Chicago, one time zone east, on game two of a road trip. Charlotte traveled zero miles, also on two days of rest, on game two of a home stand. Now the wrinkle: Orlando has not lost in five (two wins, three draws), and Charlotte has won once in five. Yet the market makes Charlotte the favorite. That gap is the whole bet.
The table explains the price. Charlotte sits 9th of 32 with 50 points from 32 matches and a plus-11 goal difference. Orlando sits 16th of 32 with 43 points from 32 matches and a minus-12 goal difference. Unbeaten does not mean dominant. Orlando has drawn its way to that run while scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.0 per match over its last 10.
Charlotte has been quieter at both ends, 1.9 scored and 1.6 conceded per match over its last 10. One more note: these clubs last met 192 days ago, and Charlotte lost that one. Our rating, an Elo model over stored results that we use as context and never as a bet, has Charlotte 61 percent and Orlando 39 percent over 73 rated games each.
If you come from football or basketball, this is the part that costs people money. A soccer moneyline has three outcomes, not two: home win, away win, or draw after 90 minutes (plus stoppage time). Bet Charlotte and the game ends 1-1, you lose. Bet Orlando and it ends 1-1, you also lose. The draw is its own ticket at +355, and here it is priced at 22 percent, which is roughly a one-in-five event. So a "close game" is not a near-miss. It is a loss for both win bets. That is why the favorite price (-107) looks shorter than you would expect for a team the market likes.
Best prices across the regulated books we track: Charlotte -107 at Fanatics, meaning you risk $107 to win $100. The draw is +355 at Polymarket, meaning $100 returns $355 in profit. Orlando is +240 at BetRivers, so $100 wins $240. Total goals 3.5 is Over -137 at BetRivers, Under +122 at Kalshi, and "total" just means combined goals by both teams. Both defenses leak looks. Orlando allows 17.07 shots per game, Charlotte allows 19.07 shots per game, both per-game averages over 32 stored games.
Compare each to the best available number. Orlando at +240 is worse than our +268, so you are being underpaid to back the road side. The draw at +355 is worse than our +377. The edge is thin, roughly 40 to 50 cents of expected value per $100 risked, which is the honest size of it.
That is also the lesson: at -107 the number works, at -115 it does not. Line shopping is not a nice habit here, it is the entire margin. Supporting the side: Charlotte is 19-13 against the spread in 32 graded games, 11-8 as the favorite, while Orlando is 7-9 on the road in 32 graded games.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 1:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Apple TV. The forecast at kickoff is 67 degrees, wind 8 mph from the ENE, 0 percent chance of precipitation. Clean conditions, no weather excuse for either side.
Charlotte FC moneyline, -107 at Fanatics. Take it only at -107 or better.
Rested legs are equal, travel is not. Charlotte stays home on a home stand while Orlando plays its second road game in three days after a trip east. Orlando's unbeaten five is built on draws and a minus-12 goal difference, and Charlotte has the better underlying ledger at 50 points and plus-11. We project Charlotte 2, Orlando 1, with real respect for the draw at +355 if this one tightens after the hour. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one, right below.
Charlotte FC is the market favorite at -107 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with Orlando City SC at +240. The draw is priced at +355. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The match streams on Apple TV. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 1:00 PM ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The forecast at kickoff is 67 degrees with an 8 mph wind from the ENE and a 0 percent chance of precipitation.
The total goals line is 3.5, with Over -137 best at BetRivers and Under +122 best at Kalshi. This season Orlando City is 20-12 to the over in 32 graded games and Charlotte FC is 21-11 to the over in 32 graded games.
Orlando City is unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws) and sits 16th of 32 with 43 points from 32 matches and a minus-12 goal difference. Charlotte FC has one win, two draws and two losses in five, sitting 9th with 50 points and a plus-11 goal difference.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.