vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before kickoff .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -1 | -1.25 | n/a |
| Total | 2.5 | 3.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| New York City FC win | Draw | CF Montréal win |
|---|---|---|
| -210Pregame price at Hard Rock Bet → | +380Pregame price at FanDuel → | +600Pregame price at FanDuel → |
| Total goals 3.5: O +130 (BetRivers) · U -167 (BetRivers) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
New York City FCDDDLLCF MontréalDLDLL| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 71 |
| New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 58 |
| Inter Miami CF | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 52 |
| Charlotte FC | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
Twenty-ninth of 32 in the table. Minus 30 goal difference. Two days of rest and 531 miles of travel from Charlotte. That is what CF Montreal brings to Citi Field, and the market still only prices New York City FC at -210. That gap between how bad one team looks and how little the home side is favored is the whole story here, and it is the reason this card is more interesting than the standings suggest.
New York City FC sit 23rd of 32 with 38 points from 32 matches and a goal difference of plus 3. Their last five across all competitions read DDDLL, and in league play WDDLL. Over their last ten they have scored 1.1 and conceded 1.3 per match. CF Montreal sit 29th of 32 with 25 points from 32 and that minus 30 differential. Their last five read DLDLL overall, LLDLL in league, with 0.6 scored and 2.0 conceded per match over ten. The two met 189 days ago and NYCFC lost that one.
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. You are betting on one of three results after 90 minutes plus stoppage: home win, away win, or draw. The draw is its own ticket. That matters more than new bettors expect. If you back NYCFC at -210 (risk $210 to win $100) and the game finishes 1-1, you lose. You do not get your money back the way you would on a tie in the NFL. Both win bets lose on a draw. The draw itself pays +380 here (a $100 bet returns $380 in profit).
Best prices across the books we track: NYCFC -210 at Hard Rock Bet, the draw +380 at FanDuel, Montreal +600 at FanDuel. Total goals is set at 3.5, with Over +130 and Under -167 both best at BetRivers. Context on the sides: our Elo rating over stored results makes NYCFC 72 percent to win and Montreal 28 percent, which is a touch stronger on the home side than the market's 67. That is context, not a bet. Against the spread this season, Montreal are 9-23 in 32 graded games (5-11 on the road) and NYCFC are 15-16-1 in 32. Over-under records: Montreal 17-15, NYCFC 15-17, both over 32 games.
The best available number is -210. Expected value is just the average dollar result if you made that same bet thousands of times. All three sides are at or past fair, so the three-way is a pass. The total is where the math leans. Over the last ten, NYCFC games have averaged 2.4 combined goals and Montreal games 2.6. Per game this season NYCFC average 4.63 shots on target and allow 4.23, Montreal average 4.63 and allow 5.14. Under 3.5 at -167 needs to hit 62.5 percent to break even, and four-plus goal games are the minority here.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 2:00 PM ET at Citi Field in New York, on Apple TV. The forecast is 60 degrees, wind 5 mph from the northwest, 0 percent chance of precipitation. Clean conditions, no weather excuse for a sloppy, wind-driven game. Both clubs are on two days of rest: NYCFC in game 2 of a home stand with zero travel, Montreal in game 2 of a road trip with no time-zone change.
Under 3.5 goals at -167, best at BetRivers.
Montreal have been outscored badly, but they have also been low-event on both ends, and NYCFC have not been scoring in bunches either (1.1 per match over ten). We project New York City FC 2, CF Montreal 0, with the total staying comfortably south of four. Shop the Under, because a half-goal and 20 cents of juice is the whole margin. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one right below.
New York City FC is the market favorite at -210 (best price at Hard Rock Bet) on the moneyline, with CF Montréal at +600. The draw is priced at +380. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The match streams on Apple TV. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 2:00 PM ET from Citi Field in New York. That is the only broadcast listing in our data, so do not go looking for a cable channel for this one.
Best prices we track: New York City FC -210 at Hard Rock Bet, the draw +380 at FanDuel, CF Montreal +600 at FanDuel. Total goals is 3.5, with Over +130 and Under -167 both priced best at BetRivers.
The forecast at kickoff is 60 degrees with wind at 5 mph from the northwest and a 0 percent chance of precipitation. Citi Field is an outdoor venue, so conditions should be comfortable and should not distort play.
New York City FC sit 23rd of 32 with 38 points from 32 matches and a plus 3 goal difference. CF Montreal sit 29th of 32 with 25 points from 32 matches and a minus 30 goal difference.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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