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As of Oct 28, 3:29 PM ET, moneyline tickets split 20% CF Montreal, 80% Charlotte FC, and the money splits 16% CF Montreal, 84% Charlotte FC (licensed market-data feed, the same numbers as our betting splits board).
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX publishes no fills, so its card shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Charlotte FC win | Draw | CF Montréal win |
|---|---|---|
| -160Bet at ReBet → | +376Bet at Polymarket → exchange price | +410betPARX |
| Total goals 3.5: O +117 (Kalshi) · U -130 (betPARX) | ||
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Charlotte FCDDLWLCF MontréalDDLLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 70 |
| New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 55 |
| Inter Miami CF | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 55 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 51 |
| Charlotte FC | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 47 |
| Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 46 |
Charlotte FC crossed three time zones heading east and traveled about 2,285 miles since their last match, then got exactly three days of rest. The market shrugged. Charlotte is still -190, a 65% favorite. Meanwhile CF Montréal arrive on the same three days of rest, with 806 miles of travel, no time-zone change, and 0.7 goals scored per match over their last 10. One team is tired. The other cannot find the net. Wednesday at Bank of America Stadium, that collision shapes the total more than the side.
Charlotte sit 11th of 32 with 47 points from 31 matches and a plus-7 goal difference. Their last five read D-D-L-W-L, and league form is L-D-L-W-L, so this is not a team surging. Over their last 10 they have scored 1.7 and conceded 1.6 per match.
Per-game season averages: 11.48 total shots, 4.74 on target, 46.61% possession, and a hefty 17.19 shots allowed per game, which is why their keeper averages 4.61 saves. Montréal are 29th of 32 with 25 points and a minus-26 goal difference, conceding 2.3 per match over their last 10. Their per-game averages are 12.81 shots, 4.74 on target, 48.11% possession. The two met 49 days ago and Charlotte won.
Soccer has three results after 90 minutes, not two. You can back Charlotte at -190 (risk $190 to win $100), Montréal at +470 (risk $100 to win $470), or the draw at +380. Here is the part American bettors miss: if the match finishes 1-1, both win tickets lose. The draw is not a push and there is no overtime in the regular season. That third outcome is priced at 19% by the market here, so roughly one in five nights your side can play fine and you still collect nothing.
Best prices across the books we track: Charlotte -190 at Hard Rock Bet, the draw +380 at FanDuel, Montréal +470 at FanDuel. Total goals 3.5: Over +117 at Kalshi, Under -127 at betPARX. Against the spread (soccer's goal handicap), Charlotte are 18-13 in 31 graded games and 8-7 at home; Montréal are 9-22 in 31 graded games and 5-10 on the road. Totals: Charlotte 20-11 to the Over in 31 games, Montréal 16-15 in 31. The public split is 50% of tickets on each side with 84% of the money on Charlotte. Our Elo rating, context only and never a bet, has Charlotte 75%.
Compare those to the best available: -190, +380, +470. All three three-way outcomes are priced slightly through our number. There is no edge on the side, even though our rating likes Charlotte. So we go to the total. Montréal generate 4.74 shots on target per game and have scored 0.7 per match recently. Charlotte's recent matches average about 3.3 goals, Montréal's about 3.0. Four or more goals is a real ask.
Kickoff is Wednesday, October 28 at 7:30 PM ET on Apple TV. Forecast at Bank of America Stadium is 65 degrees, wind 6 mph from the northeast, 0% chance of rain. Clean conditions, no weather excuse either way.
Under 3.5 goals, -127 at betPARX. We would not play it past -135.
Charlotte control the night without being sharp, and Montréal's attack stays quiet on the road. We project Charlotte 2, Montréal 1, three goals and the Under cashing. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, right below.
Charlotte FC is the market favorite at -160 (best price at ReBet) on the moneyline, with CF Montréal at +410. The draw is priced at +376. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The match streams on Apple TV. Kickoff is Wednesday, October 28 at 7:30 PM ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The forecast at kickoff is 65 degrees, wind 6 mph from the northeast, with a 0% chance of precipitation.
Best prices across the books we track: Charlotte FC -190 at Hard Rock Bet, the draw +380 at FanDuel, CF Montreal +470 at FanDuel. The total is 3.5 goals, with the Over +117 at Kalshi and the Under -127 at betPARX.
In a three-way moneyline, a draw after 90 minutes is its own outcome. Both the Charlotte FC ticket and the CF Montreal ticket lose. Only the draw bet, priced at +380 here, wins. The market gives the draw a 19% read in this match.
Charlotte FC sit 11th of 32 with 47 points from 31 matches and a plus-7 goal difference. CF Montreal sit 29th of 32 with 25 points from 31 matches and a minus-26 goal difference. The clubs last met 49 days ago, a Charlotte win.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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