vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before kickoff .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -0.5 | -1 | n/a |
| Total | 3.5 | 3.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| St. Louis CITY SC win | Draw | San Diego FC win |
|---|---|---|
| -115Pregame price at theScore Bet → | +376Kalshi exchange price | +275Pregame price at BetRivers → |
| Total goals 3.5: O -107 (BetRivers) · U -120 (BetMGM) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
St. Louis CITY SCDLWLDSan Diego FCDDDDL| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| FC Dallas | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| St. Louis CITY SC | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| Houston Dynamo FC | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 49 |
| LAFC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 47 |
San Diego FC sits 25th of 32 and has not won in five matches. Yet the best price on them, +275, is a hair longer than our own number says it should be. That gap is small, but for a bettor it is the whole story of this game. St. Louis CITY SC hosts on Saturday at Energizer Park. The question is not who is better. The question is whether the price is right.
St. Louis is 8th in the MLS table with 51 points from 32 matches and a +11 goal difference. San Diego is 25th with 35 points and a -6 goal difference. Over the last five, newest first, St. Louis is DLWLD and San Diego is DDDDL. Over their last 10, St. Louis scores 2.5 and concedes 1.7 per match. San Diego scores 1.6 and concedes 2.9.
Here is the odd part. San Diego averages 60% possession per game this season and allows just 10 shots per game, yet the goals keep going in. They also average 0.25 red cards per game, which means a lot of minutes played a man down. St. Louis averages 13.16 shots and 4.94 on target per game. The last meeting, 244 days ago, went against St. Louis.
A moneyline is a bet on who wins. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline, because a match has three outcomes after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: home win, away win or draw. Extra time does not count. If you bet St. Louis at -115 and the match ends 1-1, you lose. If you bet San Diego at +275 and it ends 1-1, you also lose.
The draw is its own bet, here at +376. Negative odds show what you risk to win $100, so -115 means risking $115 to win $100. Positive odds show what $100 wins, so +275 pays $275 profit. That third outcome takes probability away from both teams, which is why the favorite here is barely below even money.
The best prices across the books we track: St. Louis -115 at theScore Bet, the draw +376 at Kalshi, San Diego +275 at BetRivers. Remove the sportsbook's cut (the vig, the fee built into every line) and the market reads St. Louis 53%, draw 22%, San Diego 26%. The total, a bet on combined goals, is 3.5: Over -107 at BetRivers, Under -120 at BetMGM.
For context, San Diego is 20-12 to the over in 32 games by our closing-line math, and St. Louis is 17-15 in 32. Against the spread (a bet with a goal handicap applied), San Diego is 13-19 in 32 graded games and St. Louis is 17-15 in 32. Our rating, an Elo model built on results, gives St. Louis 63% and San Diego 37%. It ignores the draw, so treat it as background, not a bet.
Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you could place it thousands of times. The best number, +275 at BetRivers, implies about 26.7%. Now compare St. Louis. Only one outcome clears the bar, and only at the right book. That is why we shop every line.
The match streams on Apple TV, with kickoff Saturday, October 31 at 3:00 PM ET at Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri. The forecast calls for 72 F, wind 6 mph from the east and an 11% chance of precipitation. Weather should not be a factor. The schedule matters more. Both clubs have 2 days of rest. St. Louis is in game 2 of a home stand with no travel. San Diego is in game 2 of a road trip, flew 1,776 miles from Vancouver and crossed two time zones east. That is the tougher setup, and it is part of why the price is long.
San Diego FC to win in 90 minutes, +275 at BetRivers. This is a small, price-driven edge, not a claim that San Diego is the better team. A draw or a St. Louis win loses it.
St. Louis is the likelier winner, and the market knows it. But San Diego games run open: 2.9 conceded per match over the last 10 and 20 overs in 32. A side that keeps 60% of the ball can win a shootout on a day it finishes its chances. Our projected scoreline is San Diego 3, St. Louis 2, the upset path that makes +275 pay. If St. Louis wins instead, the bet was still right at that price. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
St. Louis CITY SC is the market favorite at -115 (best price at theScore Bet) on the moneyline, with San Diego FC at +275. The draw is priced at +376. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
St. Louis CITY SC vs San Diego FC streams on Apple TV. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 3:00 PM ET at Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri, where the forecast calls for 72 F with an 11% chance of precipitation.
The match kicks off Saturday, October 31 at 3:00 PM ET at Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri. It streams on Apple TV. Both clubs come in on 2 days of rest, with San Diego FC in game 2 of a road trip.
Best prices we track: St. Louis CITY SC -115 at theScore Bet, the draw +376 at Kalshi, and San Diego FC +275 at BetRivers. The total is 3.5 goals, with Over -107 at BetRivers and Under -120 at BetMGM.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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