vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before kickoff .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -1.25 | -1 | n/a |
| Total | 3.5 | 3.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| Columbus Crew win | Draw | D.C. United win |
|---|---|---|
| -220betPARX | +400Pregame price at Fanatics → | +550Pregame price at FanDuel → |
| Total goals 3.5: O +117 (Kalshi) · U -134 (betPARX) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Columbus CrewDWLWWD.C. UnitedDLLLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 71 |
| New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 58 |
| Inter Miami CF | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 52 |
| Charlotte FC | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
The market prices Columbus Crew at 68 percent to win this match. Our rating, an Elo model over stored results, says 69 percent. When the board and our number agree that tightly, the moneyline is usually dead money and the real question moves somewhere else. On this card, it moves to the goal total, where the books are asking you to believe in a four-goal afternoon between a team conceding one per match and a team that cannot score.
Columbus sit 18th of 32 with 41 points from 32 matches and a goal difference of plus three. Their last five in league play read WWWWL, and over the last 10 they have scored 2.1 and conceded 1.0 per match. Across all stored results, the last five go DWLWW. D.C. United sit 27th of 32 with 33 points from 32 matches and a minus 18 goal difference. Their last five across our results: DLLLW. Over 10 league matches they average 1.1 scored and 2.1 conceded.
The shape is lopsided. Columbus average 54.88 percent possession per game; D.C. average 39.23 percent and allow 58.45 percent. Both teams come in on two days of rest. D.C. have played four matches in the last 14 days and are on game two of a road trip, 318 miles from Toronto with no time-zone change. Columbus traveled 899 miles from Toyota Stadium and crossed one time zone east. The last meeting was 52 days ago, and Columbus lost it.
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. There are three outcomes after 90 minutes plus stoppage, not two. You can back Columbus at -220 (risk $220 to win $100), D.C. United at +550 ($100 wins $550), or the draw at +400. Here is the part that trips up American bettors coming from football or basketball: if the match ends 1-1, both win tickets lose. The draw is not a push or a refund. It is a third winner. The market gives it an 18 percent chance here, which is roughly one in five.
Best prices across the regulated books we track: Columbus -220 at betPARX, the draw +400 at Fanatics, D.C. United +550 at FanDuel. Stripped of the house margin, the market reads Columbus 68 percent, draw 18 percent, D.C. 14 percent. On the total, 3.5 goals: Over +117 at Kalshi, Under -134 at betPARX. Season context on the total: Columbus are 19-13 to the over across 32 graded games, D.C. 17-15 across 32. Against the spread (soccer's goal handicap), Columbus are 14-18 in 32 games and 8-8 at home; D.C. are 17-15 overall and 10-6 on the road.
Start with what is not there. You are paying slightly above our number for the favorite. The draw at +400 is short of our +466, and D.C. at +550 is short of our +628. Three sides, zero edge. Now the total. Per game this season, D.C. matches produce 12.72 shots for and 13.5 allowed, with 4.28 and 5.21 on target.
Columbus produce 12.63 and allow 11.6, with 4.56 and 4.73 on target. Add the on-target rates and you get roughly nine and a half per match, which historically translates closer to three goals than four. Columbus have conceded 1.0 per match over 10. Under 3.5 at -134 means risking $134 to win $100, a break-even rate of 57.3 percent. That is the edge, and it is real but modest.
ScottsMiracle-Gro Field in Columbus, Ohio. Forecast at kickoff is 63 degrees, wind seven miles per hour out of the east, three percent chance of precipitation. Nothing in that suppresses or inflates scoring. Coverage is on Apple TV, Saturday, October 31 at 2:00 PM ET.
Under 3.5 goals, -134 at betPARX. Take the best number. That is the whole game with totals.
Columbus control the ball, D.C. absorb it on two days of rest and four matches in 14 days, and the chances arrive in bunches without the volume to break 3.5. Columbus Crew 2, D.C. United 1. That is the Desk's read on this number, and the free documented play of the day sits right below if you want to see how we grade one.
Columbus Crew is the market favorite at -220 (best price at betPARX) on the moneyline, with D.C. United at +550. The draw is priced at +400. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The match streams on Apple TV. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 2:00 PM ET from ScottsMiracle-Gro Field in Columbus, Ohio. That is the only listed broadcast for this fixture in our data.
Best prices across the regulated books we track: Columbus Crew -220 at betPARX, the draw +400 at Fanatics, D.C. United +550 at FanDuel. The total is 3.5 goals, with Over +117 at Kalshi and Under -134 at betPARX.
Columbus Crew are 18th of 32 with 41 points from 32 matches and a plus three goal difference. D.C. United are 27th of 32 with 33 points from 32 matches and a minus 18 goal difference.
The forecast at kickoff calls for 63 degrees with wind at seven miles per hour from the east and a three percent chance of precipitation. ScottsMiracle-Gro Field is an outdoor venue, so conditions look mild and stable.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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