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As of Oct 28, 3:21 PM ET, moneyline tickets split 21% D.C. United, 79% Toronto FC, and the money splits 6% D.C. United, 94% Toronto FC (licensed market-data feed, the same numbers as our betting splits board).
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX publishes no fills, so its card shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Toronto FC win | Draw | D.C. United win |
|---|---|---|
| -107Bet at Fanatics → | +300Bet at Fanatics → | +285Bet at Polymarket → exchange price |
| Total goals 3.5: O +133 (Kalshi) · U -138 (Kalshi) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Toronto FCDWDWLD.C. UnitedDLLWL| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 70 |
| New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 55 |
| Inter Miami CF | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 55 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 51 |
| Charlotte FC | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 47 |
| Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 46 |
Toronto FC is priced at +100 to win this match. That is a coin flip, at home, against a D.C. United side that has taken four points from its last five games. Toronto has taken eight from the same stretch. The market still will not make the home team a favorite, and that tension is the whole story of this card. Somebody is wrong here, either the bettors who see a form gap or the oddsmakers who refuse to price one.
Toronto FC comes in on a run of draw, win, draw, win, loss. That is two wins, two draws, one defeat, eight points from fifteen. Not dominant, but steady, and they have not lost since the back end of that window. D.C. United's last five read draw, loss, loss, win, loss. One win, one draw, three defeats, four points from fifteen.
We do not have the full MLS table in front of us for this one, so we are not going to pretend to know exact standings. What we do have is recent results, and recent results say Toronto has been the more reliable team by a factor of two in points earned. The venue is BMO Field in Toronto, where the home side sets the tone.
Soccer is not like the NFL or the NBA. There is no overtime in a regular season MLS match, so a tie after 90 minutes stands as a tie. That means the moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) has three outcomes, not two. You can bet Toronto FC to win at +100, D.C. United to win at +250, or the draw at +300.
Here is the part that trips up American bettors: if the game ends 1-1, both the Toronto ticket and the D.C. ticket lose. The draw is not a push. It is a third result that beats you. That is why soccer prices look generous compared to other sports. You are not getting a 50/50 shot, you are getting roughly a 48/27/24 split of the pie.
Toronto FC +100 is best at BetMGM, and +100 means a $100 bet returns $100 in profit. The draw at +300 is best at FanDuel, so $100 returns $300. D.C. United at +250 is best at theScore Bet, so $100 returns $250. Total goals is set at 3.5, with Over +138 best at Kalshi and Under -152 best at betPARX, meaning you lay $152 to win $100 that this game has three goals or fewer.
Those are the best numbers across the books we track. If your app has Toronto at -115 instead of +100, you are paying an extra 15 cents for the exact same outcome. Line shopping is not a nice-to-have in a three-way market, it is the edge.
United 27 percent. Now compare. The draw at +300 needs 25 percent and gets 24 percent, also about four cents on the dollar against you. D.C. at +250 needs 28.6 percent and gets 27 percent, the worst of the three at roughly five and a half cents against. So nothing here is a free lunch. The question becomes which side the fair number is most likely to be underselling. We think it is Toronto. An eight-point team hosting a four-point team should not be a pure coin flip, and at +100 you are getting paid as if it is.
BMO Field in Toronto, late October. The home side knows the surface and the sightlines. We have no weather report in hand, so we are not going to guess at one.
Toronto FC moneyline at +100, best price at BetMGM. This is a thin edge, not a blowout read, and it only works at even money or better. If the number moves to -110 or worse before you get down, pass and move on. Desk analysis only, not an official documented play.
Toronto grabs the game early at home and D.C. United, with three losses in five, does not have the profile of a team that steals points on the road. We see 2-1 Toronto, which also lands on the Under 3.5 side of the total if you want a second angle at -152. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one right below.
Toronto FC is the market favorite at -107 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with D.C. United at +285. The draw is priced at +300. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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