vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before kickoff .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -0.25 | -0.25 | n/a |
| Total | 2.5 | 2.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| Colorado Rapids win | Draw | Chicago Fire FC win |
|---|---|---|
| +130betPARX | +270Pregame price at theScore Bet → | +190Pregame price at Fanatics → |
| Total goals 2.5: O -144 (Kalshi) · U +128 (betPARX) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Colorado RapidsDWDDDChicago Fire FCDWLLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 71 |
| New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 58 |
| Inter Miami CF | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 52 |
| Charlotte FC | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
Our rating has this game dead even, 50% to 50%. The betting market disagrees. It prices the Colorado Rapids at 42% and the Chicago Fire FC at just 33%. That gap is the story for a bettor. Add a Rapids side that has drawn four of its last five, and the third outcome matters more than usual that night.
The Fire look like the better club on paper. They sit 7th of 32 in the MLS table with 52 points from 32 matches and a +9 goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed). Their last five read DWLLW, newest first. The Rapids are 16th with 43 points and a +1 goal difference. Their last five read DWDDD. Over the last 10, the Fire score 1.4 and concede 1.6 per match.
The Rapids score 1.3 and concede 1.5. Per-game averages this season favor Chicago in shooting: 14.31 shots and 5.09 on target, against 12.38 and 4.31 for Colorado. The Rapids hold the ball more, at 55.56% possession per game. One note: the Rapids had a red card last match (Kosi Thompson). Our data does not list his status for this game.
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. A moneyline is a straight bet on the result, with no point spread. Three-way means there are three results to bet: Rapids win, Fire win, or a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. That last one is the trap. Bet the Rapids at +130 and the game ends 1-1, you lose. Same for the Fire at +190. A draw beats both win bets. Reading the prices: +130 means a $100 bet profits $130. The draw pays +270, so $100 profits $270. The market gives the draw a 25% chance here, so every win bet carries that risk.
Best prices across the books we track: Rapids +130 at betPARX, draw +270 at theScore Bet, Fire +190 at Fanatics. Line shopping (checking several sportsbooks for the best payout on the same bet) is the cheapest edge in betting. Strip out the vig, the sportsbook's built-in fee, and the market reads Rapids 42%, draw 25%, Fire 33%. The spread opened Rapids -0.25 and has not moved.
That quarter-goal line splits your stake: a Rapids win cashes, a draw loses half, a Rapids loss loses it all. The total sits at 2.5 goals, also unmoved. Over is -144 at Kalshi (bet $144 to profit $100). Under is +128 at betPARX. Against the spread (ATS, a team's record versus the line), the Rapids are 10-6 at home and the Fire 8-8 on the road, 16 games each. On totals, the Rapids are 14-18 and the Fire 16-16, over 32 games each.
Expected value is what a bet earns on average if you made it many times. Every best price on the board pays less than fair. By our numbers, $100 on the Rapids at +130 loses about $3.77 on average. The Fire at +190 loses about $6.76. The draw at +270 loses about $3.39, the smallest leak on the board. So there is no true value bet at these prices. The draw comes closest, and it fits the profile: a Rapids team in a draw loop, a Fire side with swingy form, and two defenses each conceding about 1.5 per match.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 9:30 PM ET on Apple TV. Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado sits about 1,574 meters up. The Fire come up to altitude from a low-elevation home after 915 miles of travel, crossing one time zone west. The Rapids traveled 930 miles from San Jose, California, crossing one time zone east. Both sides have two days of rest. The forecast is calm: 56 F, wind 2 mph from the north, 0% chance of rain.
Our lean is the Draw at +270 at theScore Bet. Be clear on what that is: a lean, not a value play. Anything below +270, we pass. This is Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play.
We expect a tight, cagey game. The Fire bring more shot volume, but they are on short rest and coming up to altitude. The Rapids have split points in four of their last five. We project 1-1. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Colorado Rapids is the slight market favorite at +130 (best price at betPARX) on the moneyline, with Chicago Fire FC at +190. The draw is priced at +270. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire FC streams on Apple TV. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 9:30 PM ET at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado, a venue that sits about 1,574 meters above sea level.
Best three-way prices we track: Colorado Rapids +130 at betPARX, draw +270 at theScore Bet, and Chicago Fire FC +190 at Fanatics. The total is 2.5 goals, with the Over at -144 on Kalshi and the Under at +128 on betPARX.
The consensus spread opened at Colorado Rapids -0.25 and has not moved. On that quarter-goal line, a Rapids win pays, a draw loses half the stake, and a Rapids loss loses the full stake. The 2.5-goal total is also unchanged.
The kickoff forecast at the outdoor Dick's Sporting Goods Park calls for 56 F, wind of 2 mph from the north, and a 0% chance of precipitation.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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