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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Broncos vs 49ers?
DraftKings bettors lean 49ers on the spread (71% of tickets).
| Book | BetsBroncos49ers | MoneyBroncos49ers |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Broncos +3 / 49ers -3) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Broncos +2.5 / 49ers -2.5) | ||
| BetMGM (Broncos +3 / 49ers -3) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsBroncos49ers | MoneyBroncos49ers |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Broncos (+140) / 49ers (-166)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Broncos (+135) / 49ers (-155)) | ||
| BetMGM (Broncos (+140) / 49ers (-165)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 48.5 / Under 48.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 49 / Under 49) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 48.5 / Under 48.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Denver Broncos | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | -2.5 |
| Total 49 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +135 | -155 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$2.4M traded · 39k trades
Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ers
Trades
Money
Spread$379k traded · 2.0k trades
Denver Broncos +3.5San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 61.5$55k traded · 36 trades
Over 61.5Under 61.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$1.2M traded · 711 trades
Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ers
Trades
Money
Spread$558k traded · 477 trades
Denver Broncos +2.5San Francisco 49ers -2.5
Trades
Money
Total 48.5$337k traded · 114 trades
Over 48.5Under 48.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
San Francisco 49ers win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
San Francisco 49ers to win, from 167 hours before the start to 1 min before the start: Polymarket (international) 63% to 61%; Kalshi 63% to 61%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave San Francisco 49ers, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 50% to 70%
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Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Denver Broncos | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +133Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -135Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +2.5 +108Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -2.5 -111Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 48.5 | O +104Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U -106Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Denver Broncos
67%
San Francisco 49ers
100%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Denver Broncos3rd in the AFC West
San Francisco 49ers1st in the NFC WestHow to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +133 means a $100 bet profits $133 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
A Two-Point Window in Santa Clara
San Francisco is 3-0 and still only has to give away two and a half points at home. That is the tension: a perfect record, a modest price, and a Denver team the market thinks is much closer than the standings suggest. Broncos vs 49ers kicks off Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET at Levi's Stadium in Week 4, and the half point in the middle of it decides everything.
The Matchup
Denver is 2-1 and sits 3rd of 4 in the AFC West. San Francisco is 3-0 and sits 1st of 4 in the NFC West. What we do have is a market that rates this as a narrow home edge. The 49ers are favored (expected to win), the Broncos are the underdog (expected to lose), and the gap between them is smaller than 3-0 versus 2-1 feels.
Players to Watch
Brock Purdy has been the cleanest quarterback in this game: 60 completions on 83 attempts for 789 yards, 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. That is roughly 72 percent accuracy with almost no giveaways. Bo Nix has 56 completions on 93 attempts for 605 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Fewer completions on more throws, fewer yards, and three balls handed to the other team. Turnovers are the single fastest way an underdog loses a one-score game, so Nix protecting the football is the hinge for Denver. Purdy's 9-to-1 ratio is why San Francisco is laying the points at all.
The Numbers
Start with the moneyline, which is a straight bet on who wins. With the bookmaker's built-in margin (the vig) stripped out, the market reads this about 57.3 percent San Francisco to 42.7 percent Denver.
The spread is a bet on margin, not on who wins. It loses on a 3-point loss, and there is no tie at a half point. Risk $100 to profit $108.00, break-even 48.1 percent. San Francisco -2.5 at -111 only cashes on a win by 3 or more. A 2-point win loses. Risk $100 to profit $90.09, break-even 52.6 percent. The total is the combined points of both teams: Over 48.5 is +104, Under 48.5 is -106. Novig is the best price on every one of these lines, which is exactly why you shop books before you bet.
Injuries
Six names, three per side. San Francisco lists Dre Greenlaw and Jaden Dugger as questionable, which means genuinely uncertain, and Christian Kirk is on injured reserve. Denver has Dondrea Tillman and Jonathon Cooper ruled out, both pass rushers, plus Jonah Coleman on injured reserve. Losing two edge defenders against a quarterback with a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is the part of this report that argues for points.
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Injury Report
SFDre Greenlaw (Questionable), Jaden Dugger (Questionable), Christian Kirk (Injured Reserve)
DENDondrea Tillman (Out), Jonah Coleman (Injured Reserve), Jonathon Cooper (Out)
More NFL matchups
Broncos vs 49ers FAQ
Who was favored in Broncos vs 49ers?
49ers is the market favorite at -135 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Broncos at +133. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on 49ers vs Broncos?
An unbeaten San Francisco team lays a short price at home while Denver arrives with a turnover problem and a live number. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Broncos vs 49ers?
The total is 48.5, with the over priced at +104 at Novig and the under at -106 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits