@
| Market | Tulane Green Wave | Kansas State Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +20.5 -108Pregame price at Caesars → | -20.5 -108Pregame price at DraftKings → |
| Total 49.5 | O -110Pregame price at Hard Rock Bet → | U -103Pregame price at Caesars → |
Avery Johnson (KSU)37/55, 391 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT
Kadin Semonza (TULN)25/43, 352 YDS, 1 TDKansas State is favored by 20.5 points and the market still treats this as a 50-50 proposition. That is not a contradiction, it is the entire lesson of spread betting. A spread is a head start handed to the weaker team so both sides attract roughly equal money. Here is the sharper tension: Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson already has six touchdown passes in two games. The Green Wave passing leader has one. And yet the number, not the narrative, is what you have to beat.
Tulane vs Kansas State kicks off Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 3 of the 2026 regular season. As of publication the Tulane Green Wave are 1-1 and the Kansas State Wildcats are 2-0. Kansas State sits 5th of 16 in the Big 12 Conference.
We were not given any prior season series between these programs, so we will not pretend one exists. Flip it around and Kansas State vs Tulane is the same picture from the other side: a two-win home favorite that the market believes should win by three touchdowns, hosting a visitor that has already split its first two games.
Avery Johnson is the engine. He has completed 37 of 55 passes for 391 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, which is roughly 67 percent accuracy and about 7.1 yards per attempt. Six touchdowns on 55 throws is a very high scoring rate, and scoring rates like that tend to move toward the middle over time. Kadin Semonza leads Tulane at 25 of 43 for 352 yards with 1 touchdown. That is about 58 percent accuracy but a healthier 8.2 yards per attempt. Translation: Tulane has been hitting bigger plays but has not converted them into touchdowns. Kansas State has done the opposite.
We have no moneyline prices for this game. A moneyline is the simple bet on who wins the game outright, and with no number posted there is nothing to analyze there. So the board is the spread and the total. Tulane +20.5 is priced at -108, best at Caesars. That ticket wins if Tulane wins the game outright or loses by 20 or fewer. It loses on a 21-point loss. There is no push (a tie that refunds your stake) at a half point.
Kansas State -20.5 is -108, best at DraftKings, and wins only if the Wildcats win by 21 or more. A 20-point win loses. At -108, a $100 bet profits $92.59 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not. The total is the combined points scored by both teams. Over 49.5 is -110, best at Hard Rock Bet ($100 profits $90.91). Under 49.5 is -103, best at Caesars ($100 profits $97.09). Shopping those books is the edge available to everyone for free.
Strip the vig (the bookmaker's built-in margin) out of the prices and you get the market-implied probabilities. On this spread, both sides sit at a 50 percent cover probability. But -108 requires you to win 51.9 percent of the time just to break even. That gap is the house's cut: minus $3.70 per $100 risked on either side of the spread. The Over's no-vig number is 50.2 percent against a 52.4 percent break-even, minus $4.16 per $100 risked.
The Under's no-vig number is 49.8 percent against a 50.7 percent break-even, minus $1.85 per $100 risked, with a fair price around +101. Every ticket here is negative expectation, meaning the price pays less than the market's own read. The Under at -103 carries the lowest break-even percent on this board, so it is the cheapest ticket in the block. That is where we want to be if we play.
Under 49.5 at -103 at Caesars. Understand what this is: the Under's own no-vig number (49.8 percent) does not clear its own break-even (50.7 percent), so this is a matchup lean, not a priced edge. The case is Tulane's one passing touchdown in two games and Johnson's touchdown rate being unsustainably hot.
Kansas State 27, Tulane 16. That adds to 43 points, comfortably under the 49.5 total, and the 11-point margin would also cash Tulane +20.5 if you prefer the side. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one right below.
Kansas State is laying three touchdowns, but the cheapest ticket on the board is the Under 49.5 at -103 at Caesars.
Kansas State is laying three touchdowns, but the cheapest ticket on the board is the Under 49.5 at -103 at Caesars. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 49.5, with the over priced at -110 at Hard Rock Bet and the under at -103 at Caesars. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.