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Kansas State Wildcats play at TCU Horned Frogs in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Amon G. Carter Stadium. As of 9:50 AM ET, TCU are 11.5-point favorites and the total is 44.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: spread now Frogs -11.5, was Frogs -10.5.
DraftKings bettors lean Kansas State Wildcats on the spread (63% of tickets).
| Book | BetsKansas State WildcatsTCU Horned Frogs | MoneyKansas State WildcatsTCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Kansas State Wildcats +11.5 / TCU Horned Frogs -11.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Kansas State Wildcats +10.5 / TCU Horned Frogs -10.5) |
| Book | BetsKansas State WildcatsTCU Horned Frogs | MoneyKansas State WildcatsTCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Kansas State Wildcats (+350) / TCU Horned Frogs (-455)) | ||
| BetMGM (Kansas State Wildcats (+350) / TCU Horned Frogs (-450)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 44.5Under 44.5 | MoneyOver 44.5Under 44.5 |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Kansas State Wildcats | TCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 | -10.5 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | Kansas State Wildcats | TCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +410Bet at ReBet → | -385Bet at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Spread | +11.5 +100Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | -11.5 -107Bet at Caesars → |
| Total 44.5 | O -105Bet at theScore Bet → | U +104Bet at ProphetX → exchange price |
As of 9:50 AM ET, the spread is TCU -11.5 and the total is 44.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Kansas State ML | TCU ML | Kansas State spread | TCU spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +340 | -480 | +11.5 -110 | -11.5 -109 | O 44.5 -114 | U 44.5 -106 |
| betPARX | +340 | -480 | +11.5 -110 | -11.5 -109 | O 44.5 -114 | U 44.5 -106 |
| BetRivers | +340 | -480 | +11.5 -113 | -11.5 -110 | O 44.5 -115 | U 44.5 -108 |
| Caesars | +340 | -440 | +11.5 -113 | -11.5 -107 | O 44.5 -115 | U 44.5 -105 |
| Courtside | +360 | -440 | +11.5 -108 | -11.5 -108 | O 44.5 -110 | U 44.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | +350 | -455 | +11.5 -110 | -11.5 -110 | O 44.5 -112 | U 44.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | +340 | -450 | +11.5 -110 | -11.5 -110 | O 44.5 -110 | U 44.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +360 | -465 | +11.5 -110 | -11.5 -110 | O 44.5 -110 | U 44.5 -110 |
| Fliff | +340 | -470 | +11.5 -120 | -11.5 -115 | O 44.5 -120 | U 44.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +350 | -475 | +11.5 -110 | -11.5 -110 | O 44.5 -115 | U 44.5 -105 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Jaden Craig (TCU)203/310, 2,439 YDS, 12 TD, 7 INT (9 GP)
Avery Johnson (KSU)118/187, 1,301 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT (6 GP)Two 4-5 teams. A 10.5-point gap. The Kansas State Wildcats gain more yards per game than the TCU Horned Frogs, yet the market makes TCU a heavy home favorite on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium. That tension is the whole story, and it is why the price matters more than the name on the jersey.
Both teams sit at 4-5 as of publication, and Kansas State is 15th of 16 in the Big 12. TCU lost the last meeting, 399 days ago. Over nine games, Kansas State averages 415.56 total yards and 196.78 rushing yards per game, while allowing 345.44. TCU averages 378.33 yards per game, mostly through the air (271 passing), and allows just 304.67.
PPA (predicted points added, roughly how much each snap moves a team's expected scoring) backs this up: Kansas State's offense sits at 0.15 and TCU's at 0.09, but TCU's defense is at -0.06 while Kansas State's allows 0.13, which is poor. ATS means against the spread. TCU is 4-5 ATS, but only 2-4 ATS at home over six. TCU has 7 days of rest after a 793-mile trip from Tucson. Kansas State has 6 days and travels 448 miles.
TCU quarterback Jaden Craig has played all nine games, averaging 271 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game, with 245.2 passing yards per game over his last five. Avery Johnson has played six of Kansas State's nine games, averaging 216.8 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions per game, plus 87.8 rushing yards per game over his last five. One note: Blake Barnett was Kansas State's quarterback of record last game, so confirm who starts before kickoff.
TCU. The moneyline (a bet on who wins outright) has TCU at -380 at Caesars, meaning you risk $100 to profit $26.32. Kansas State +10.5 wins if the Wildcats win or lose by 10 or fewer. The total (combined points) is 44.5: Over -105 at theScore Bet, Under +104 at ProphetX. Some books briefly moved TCU to -11.5 and the total from 45.5 to 44.5; that is just a line move. The public split has 63% of DraftKings spread tickets and 73% of the money on Kansas State.
Books build in a fee called the vig. Strip it out and the market reads TCU at 79.1% to win and Kansas State at 20.9%. Break-even is how often a bet must win to stop losing money. Expected value (EV) is the average result per $100 risked over many tries. Kansas State +365 breaks even at 21.5%, so the EV is minus $3.02. TCU -380 needs 79.2% for minus $0.03. TCU -10.5 is minus $2.83, the Over minus $0.57, the Under minus $0.91. Our rating has TCU at 71%, softer than the market, as context only.
It needs to win 50% of the time, and the market reads it at 50%, so this is a matchup lean, not a mathematical edge. The case is Kansas State's per-game yardage and its rushing profile against a TCU team that is 2-4 ATS at home. If you find +11 or +11.5 at the same price, take it, since more points always help the underdog.
Our tcu vs kansas state prediction: TCU 24, Kansas State 17. That is a seven-point TCU win, inside the 10.5, and 41 total points, under the 44.5 total, with 15 mph wind and TCU's 2-7 over-under record pointing toward a grind. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.
TCU is the market favorite at -385 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Kansas State at +410. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Kansas State vs TCU airs on ESPNU. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium, with a forecast of 63 degrees, 15 mph wind and a 12% chance of precipitation.
The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM Eastern time at Amon G. Carter Stadium. It is a Week 11 Big 12 conference game broadcast on ESPNU.
Kansas State gains more per play than TCU, yet the Horned Frogs are laying 10.5 at home, so we lean Kansas State +10.5 at even money. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 44.5, with the over priced at -105 at theScore Bet and the under at +104 at ProphetX. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Wildcats (63% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money is also on Wildcats (73%).
The spread has held at Frogs -10.5 since it opened; the total has held at 44.5; several books (4) moved the spread on home to -11.5 together.
On Kalshi, 60% of the money traded on the moneyline is on TCU Horned Frogs (239 trades, $4.2k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 68% of the money traded on the moneyline is on TCU Horned Frogs (28 trades, $833 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 8:39 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.