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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders play at Liberty Flames in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Williams Stadium (VA). As of 8:36 AM ET, Liberty are 21-point favorites and the total is 53.5. Prices come from 14 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 14 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Public is on Liberty Flames moneyline (90% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (93%).
| Book | BetsMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +21Liberty Flames -21 | MoneyMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +21Liberty Flames -21 |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsMiddle Tennessee Blue RaidersLiberty Flames | MoneyMiddle Tennessee Blue RaidersLiberty Flames |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+950) / Liberty Flames (-1650)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+1050) / Liberty Flames (-1800)) | ||
| BetMGM (Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+1050) / Liberty Flames (-1600)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 54 / Under 54) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 53.5 / Under 53.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | Liberty Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +21 | -21 |
| Total 54 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +1050 | -1800 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
No trades captured yet on ProphetX for this line
| Market | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | Liberty Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +21 -108Bet at Courtside → | -21 -108Bet at Courtside → |
| Total 53.5 | O -106Bet at Courtside → | U +100Bet at Kalshi → exchange price |
As of 8:36 AM ET, the spread is Liberty -21 and the total is 53.5, with 14 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Middle Tennessee ML | Liberty ML | Middle Tennessee spread | Liberty spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1050 | -1600 | +21 -108 | -21 -110 | O 53.5 -108 | U 53.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +950 | -1700 | +21 -112 | -21 -108 | O 53.5 -108 | U 53.5 -112 |
| Courtside | +1008 | -1509 | +21 -108 | -21 -108 | O 53.5 -106 | U 53.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | +950 | -1650 | +21 -110 | -21 -110 | O 53.5 -108 | U 53.5 -112 |
| Fanatics | +1050 | -1800 | +21 -110 | -21 -110 | O 53.5 -110 | U 53.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +1060 | -2000 | – | – | O 53.5 -110 | U 53.5 -110 |
| Fliff | +1000 | -2350 | – | – | O 53.5 -115 | U 53.5 -115 |
| ProphetX | +1250 | -1450 | – | – | O 53.5 -104 | U 53.5 -106 |
| ReBet | +800 | -1587 | – | – | O 53.5 -114 | U 53.5 -114 |
| theScore Bet | +1100 | -2500 | – | – | O 53.5 -110 | U 53.5 -110 |
Prices from 14 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Deshawn Purdie (LIB)115/180, 1,705 YDS, 11 TD, 1 INT (9 GP)
Roman Gagliano (MTSU)177/299, 1,899 YDS, 16 TD, 4 INT (9 GP)The Liberty Flames have covered 7 of 8 games as a favorite this season, by our closing-line math. Now they lay 21.5 points to a Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team that is 6-3 against the spread over nine graded games. Something gives on Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET at Williams Stadium (on CBSSN). The market has the margin priced nearly dead even.
Liberty is the clear favorite. As of publication, Liberty is 8-1 and sits 1st of 10 in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee is 5-4. Liberty won the last meeting, 735 days ago. "Against the spread" (ATS) means a team's results after the point handicap is applied. Liberty is 7-2 ATS over nine graded games. Middle Tennessee is 5-3 ATS as an underdog over eight. The per-game averages over nine games show the gap. Liberty gains 409.67 yards and allows 284.11. Middle Tennessee gains 363.33 and allows 406.22, including 190.33 on the ground, against a Liberty offense that runs for 205 per game.
PPA (predicted points added) estimates how many points each play is worth. Liberty is at 0.25 on offense and -0.04 on defense (lower is better on defense). Middle Tennessee is at 0.12 and 0.19, over nine games each. Our rating gives Liberty 83% to win, which is context about winning, not covering. Both teams had six days of rest. Middle Tennessee traveled 416 miles and crossed one time zone east. Liberty traveled 1,600 miles from its last game in Las Cruces and crossed two time zones east.
Liberty quarterback Deshawn Purdie is 115 of 180 for 1,705 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception over nine games, or 189.4 yards per game. Middle Tennessee's Roman Gagliano is 177 of 299 for 1,899 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions over nine games, or 211 yards per game. Over his last five games, Gagliano averages 213.4 passing yards and 24.8 rushing yards. Purdie averages 185.2 passing and 26.6 rushing over his last five. Both started their team's last game. Per game, Gagliano attempts 33.2 passes to Purdie's 20, both over nine games, so Middle Tennessee is built to throw.
Here are the Middle Tennessee vs Liberty odds. The spread is a handicap. Liberty -21.5 cashes only with a win by 22 or more. Middle Tennessee +21.5 wins by winning outright or losing by 21 or fewer. The half point means no push (a tie with the spread). The total, 53.5, is a bet on combined points.
No moneyline (a straight bet on the winner) is posted in our tracking. The consensus spread and total are unchanged from the open, though some books moved the spread to -22 and the total to 54.5. The public split shows 58% of BetMGM spread tickets on Liberty. Shop every book, because small price gaps add up.
The vig is the book's cut, built into every price. Remove it and you get the market's no-vig read. Break-even is how often a bet must win to avoid losing money at its price. Middle Tennessee +21.5 at -104 needs 51%. The market's no-vig cover probability for that line is 51.7%. That is the only positive number on this board.
The market's own no-vig cover read (51.7%) clears the 51% break-even. If you find +22 at the same price, that is better, because a 22-point loss would push instead of lose. The edge is thin, so a worse price can erase it. Liberty's 7-1 ATS mark as a favorite over eight games is the real risk.
Liberty should control this game. Liberty allows just 98.33 rushing yards per game over nine games. A 14 mph northwest wind at 52 degrees could also trim some deep throws. Still, 21.5 is a lot of points. A Middle Tennessee passing game averaging 211 yards per game over nine games gives it a path to late scores.
Our Liberty vs Middle Tennessee prediction: Liberty 34, Middle Tennessee 17. That is a 17-point margin, and it adds up to 51 points, under the 53.5 total, though neither total price earns a bet. That is the read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk.
The game airs on CBSSN. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders visit the Liberty Flames at Williams Stadium on Saturday, November 14, 2026, with kickoff set for 3:30 PM ET, according to the ESPN scoreboard listing.
Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM Eastern time at Williams Stadium. The game is broadcast on CBSSN. The forecast at kickoff calls for 52 degrees, a 14 mph wind from the northwest and a 0% chance of precipitation.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 53.5, with the over priced at -106 at Courtside and the under at +100 at Kalshi. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Flames (58% of BetMGM tickets on the spread).
The spread has held at Flames -21.5 since it opened; the total has held at 53.5; several books (4) moved the spread on home to -22 together.
On Kalshi, 75% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Liberty Flames (54 trades, $670 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 57% of the money traded on the spread is on Liberty Flames (16 trades, $920 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 12, 3:46 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.