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New Mexico State Aggies play at Missouri State Bears in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. As of 8:33 AM ET, Missouri State are 1.5-point favorites and the total is 48.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 15 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean Missouri State Bears on the spread (60% of tickets).
| Book | BetsNew Mexico State Aggies +1.5Missouri State Bears -1.5 | MoneyNew Mexico State Aggies +1.5Missouri State Bears -1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsNew Mexico State AggiesMissouri State Bears | MoneyNew Mexico State AggiesMissouri State Bears |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (New Mexico State Aggies (+106) / Missouri State Bears (-108)) | ||
| BetMGM (New Mexico State Aggies (-102) / Missouri State Bears (-118)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 48.5Under 48.5 | MoneyOver 48.5Under 48.5 |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | New Mexico State Aggies | Missouri State Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +106Bet at Novig → exchange price | -108Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +1.5 -108Bet at Novig → exchange price | -1.5 +104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 48.5 | O -110Bet at Hard Rock Bet → | U +104Bet at Kalshi → exchange price |
As of 8:33 AM ET, the spread is Missouri State -1.5 and the total is 48.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | New Mexico State ML | Missouri State ML | New Mexico State spread | Missouri State spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -103 | -121 | +1.5 -112 | -1.5 -108 | O 48.5 -112 | U 48.5 -108 |
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -108 | O 48.5 -112 | U 48.5 -105 |
| betPARX | -103 | -121 | +1.5 -112 | -1.5 -108 | O 48.5 -112 | U 48.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -121 | +1.5 -113 | -1.5 -110 | O 48.5 -114 | U 48.5 -109 |
| Fliff | -105 | -120 | +1.5 -120 | -1.5 -115 | O 48.5 -125 | U 48.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -110 | O 48.5 -110 | U 48.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +104 | -122 | +1.5 -112 | -1.5 -109 | – | – |
| Courtside | +102 | -118 | +1.5 -112 | -1.5 -108 | – | – |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 | +1.5 -112 | -1.5 -108 | – | – |
| FanDuel | -102 | -118 | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -110 | – | – |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
New Mexico State Aggies6th in the Conference USAMissouri State Bears8th in the Conference USA
Henry Belin IV (MOST)104/162, 1,302 YDS, 8 TD, 5 INT (8 GP)
Trey Hedden (NMSU)84/153, 1,162 YDS, 7 TD, 8 INT (6 GP)Fifteen cents. That is all that separates these two 3-6 teams on the moneyline, and how you handle that sliver is the whole lesson this week. The New Mexico State Aggies visit the Missouri State Bears at Robert W. Plaster Stadium on Saturday, November 14, at 3:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Every price on the board sits a hair short of fair. When nothing is a gift, the edge comes from the book you pick and the side that costs you least.
Both teams are 3-6 as of November 10. New Mexico State sits 6th of 10 in Conference USA, and Missouri State sits 8th of 10. This is a conference game. When they last met, 388 days ago, Missouri State won. The per-game averages over nine games show the shape. New Mexico State gains 347.11 yards and allows 330. Missouri State gains 355.33 but allows 433.6, including 219 rushing yards per game, while New Mexico State runs for 144 per game.
Missouri State turns it over 1.11 times per game, compared with New Mexico State's 1.89. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin), New Mexico State is 4-5 in nine games and 1-5 in six as an underdog. Missouri State is 5-4 in nine games and 3-1 in four at home. Both are 3-6 on the over-under in nine games. Each team has six days of rest. Forecast: 51 degrees, 7 mph wind, no rain.
Henry Belin IV has completed 104 of 162 passes for 1,302 yards, 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over eight games. That is 162.8 yards and 0.6 interceptions per game. Over his last five games he has averaged 232.2 passing yards. Trey Hedden was New Mexico State's quarterback last game, a change from the game before. Over six games he is 84 of 153 for 1,162 yards, 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. That works out to 193.7 yards and 1.3 interceptions per game. More yards per game, more picks per game. Watch which version shows up.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins. New Mexico State is the underdog at +109 on Caesars: $100 profits $109, with a 47.8% break-even. With the vig (the book's built-in fee) removed, the market reads it 53.4% to 46.6%. The spread is a handicap. New Mexico State +1.5 at -105 on FanDuel wins if it wins outright or loses by 1, with a break-even of 51.2%. Its 50% break-even is the lowest on the board.
The total is 48.5 combined points: Over -110 at Courtside (52.4%), Under -105 at Caesars (51.2%). The home spread moved from -1.5 to -2 at three books within five minutes. If you like the underdog, +2 beats +1.5. The public split shows 82% of BetMGM moneyline tickets on the Bears. On Kalshi, 89% of the money traded on the spread is on New Mexico State, but that is only 11 trades and $523.
Expected value is your average result per $100 risked if you made the same bet over and over at the market's no-vig odds. Nothing here is positive. Missouri State -1.5 is minus $0.46. New Mexico State +1.5 is minus $1.93, and its moneyline is minus $2.63. The Under is minus $3.29 and the Over minus $3.65. Our rating gives Missouri State 60%, which is context only.
It is a matchup lean, not a value bet. The case rests on fewer giveaways per game and the home field. Keep the stake small.
We see Missouri State 24, New Mexico State 21. That is 45 total points, under the 48.5 total, which fits both teams going 3-6 on the over-under. Our read on this New Mexico State vs Missouri State game is close, so the number matters most. The Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.
Missouri State is the market favorite at -108 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with New Mexico State at +106. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The game streams on ESPN+. The New Mexico State Aggies visit the Missouri State Bears at Robert W. Plaster Stadium on Saturday, November 14, 2026, with kickoff at 3:00 PM Eastern.
Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM Eastern at Robert W. Plaster Stadium, streaming on ESPN+. The forecast calls for 51 degrees, a 7 mph wind from the southeast and no chance of rain.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 48.5, with the over priced at -110 at Hard Rock Bet and the under at +104 at Kalshi. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Bears (82% of BetMGM tickets on the moneyline).
Several books (3) moved the spread on home to -2 together.
On Kalshi, 89% of the money traded on the spread is on New Mexico State Aggies (11 trades, $523 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 10, 8:28 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.