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North Texas Mean Green play at UTSA Roadrunners in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Alamodome. As of 9:18 AM ET, North Texas are 2.5-point favorites and the total is 76.5. Prices come from 14 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Over 76.5. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 14 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean North Texas Mean Green on the spread (50% of tickets).
| Book | BetsNorth Texas Mean GreenUTSA Roadrunners | MoneyNorth Texas Mean GreenUTSA Roadrunners |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (North Texas Mean Green -2.5 / UTSA Roadrunners +2.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (North Texas Mean Green -2 / UTSA Roadrunners +2) | ||
| BetMGM (North Texas Mean Green -2.5 / UTSA Roadrunners +2.5) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsNorth Texas Mean Green (-130)UTSA Roadrunners (+105) | MoneyNorth Texas Mean Green (-130)UTSA Roadrunners (+105) |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 76.5 / Under 76.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 76 / Under 76) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 76.5 / Under 76.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | North Texas Mean Green | UTSA Roadrunners |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2 | +2 |
| Total 76 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | North Texas Mean Green | UTSA Roadrunners |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120Bet at Novig → exchange price | +117Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -2.5 +104Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | +2.5 -106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 76.5 | O +104Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -109Bet at Bally Bet → |
As of 9:18 AM ET, the spread is North Texas -2.5 and the total is 76.5, with 14 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | North Texas ML | UTSA ML | North Texas spread | UTSA spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -130 | +105 | -2.5 -108 | +2.5 -110 | O 76.5 -108 | U 76.5 -110 |
| Caesars | -124 | +105 | -2.5 -108 | +2.5 -112 | O 76.5 -107 | U 76.5 -113 |
| Courtside | -122 | +107 | -2.5 -108 | +2.5 -112 | O 76.5 -106 | U 76.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | -125 | +105 | -2.5 -108 | +2.5 -112 | O 76.5 -108 | U 76.5 -112 |
| FanDuel | -125 | +104 | -2.5 -110 | +2.5 -110 | O 76.5 -110 | U 76.5 -110 |
| Fliff | -130 | +100 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -120 | O 76.5 -115 | U 76.5 -120 |
| Novig | -120 | +117 | -2.5 +100 | +2.5 -106 | O 76.5 +104 | U 76.5 -111 |
| ProphetX | -118 | +115 | -2.5 +104 | +2.5 -107 | O 76.5 +104 | U 76.5 -112 |
| Bally Bet | -129 | +104 | – | – | O 76.5 -110 | U 76.5 -109 |
| betPARX | -129 | +104 | – | – | O 76.5 -110 | U 76.5 -109 |
Prices from 14 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Owen McCown (UTSA)189/278, 2,016 YDS, 13 TD, 4 INT (9 GP)
Tayven Jackson (UNT)211/298, 2,880 YDS, 23 TD, 5 INT (9 GP)North Texas has gone over the total in 8 of its 9 games this season. The total for this one sits at a towering 76.5 points, and the market prices the over and under at 50% each. That is the tension: a scoring streak that almost never misses against a number built to absorb it. The North Texas Mean Green visit the UTSA Roadrunners at the Alamodome on Saturday, November 14 at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU. It is a conference game, played indoors.
Both teams are 7-2 as of publication on November 10. UTSA sits 3rd of 14 in the American Conference. They have not met yet this season. The last meeting, 392 days ago, went against UTSA. North Texas gets 6 days of rest and travels 274 miles with no time-zone change. UTSA gets 8 days of rest but is coming home 1,143 miles from its last game in Boca Raton, crossing one time zone west.
Over 9 games, North Texas averages 535.44 yards per game and allows 453 per game. UTSA averages 411 per game and allows 450.75. Another lens is predicted points added per play (PPA), which measures how much each snap moves a team toward scoring. Higher is better on offense, lower is better on defense. North Texas sits at 0.35 on offense and 0.10 on defense. UTSA sits at 0.21 and 0.14.
Tayven Jackson runs the North Texas offense. Over 9 games he has completed 211 of 298 passes for 2,880 yards, 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. That works out to 320 yards and 2.6 touchdowns per game, and he has averaged 338.6 passing yards per game over his last 5. Owen McCown leads UTSA. Over 9 games he is 189 of 278 for 2,016 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, which is 224 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game, with 230.8 per game over his last 5. Both played all 9 games, so the per-game gap is a fair read. Both defenses allow over 235 passing yards per game.
North Texas is the favorite. Risk $100 to profit $83.33, and it needs to win 54.5% of the time to break even. UTSA is the underdog at +112 at BetRivers, where $100 profits $112.00 with a 47.2% break-even, the lowest on the board. With the vig (the book's built-in fee) removed, the market reads North Texas 53.8% to UTSA 46.2%. For context, our rating has UTSA at 53%. The North Texas vs UTSA spread (a bet on the margin) is North Texas -2.5 at -105 at DraftKings, which wins only by 3 or more.
UTSA +2.5 at -105 at theScore Bet wins outright or on a loss of 2 or fewer. A half point means no push (a tie that refunds your bet). Both sides break even at 51.2%. The spread moved from -2 to -2.5 at three books, and 80% of BetMGM spread tickets are on North Texas, which is just the public split. The total is Over 76.5 at +101 at ProphetX and Under 76.5 at -103 at Courtside. Shopping books for these prices matters.
Expected value is your average result per $100 risked if you made the same bet many times at the market's own read. Here every price is negative. North Texas moneyline: minus $1.29. UTSA moneyline: minus $2.15. Each spread side: minus $2.38. Under: minus $1.46. So there is no clean value.
Over 76.5 at +101 on ProphetX. This is a matchup lean, not a value play, so keep the stake small. At a worse price the math only gets worse.
North Texas moves the ball at will, UTSA keeps pace at home, and nobody gets many stops. We project North Texas 42, UTSA 37. That adds up to 79 points, over the 76.5 total. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
North Texas is the market favorite at -120 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with UTSA at +117. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
North Texas vs UTSA airs on ESPNU. The game is played indoors at the Alamodome, home of the UTSA Roadrunners, and kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM Eastern time.
The North Texas Mean Green and UTSA Roadrunners kick off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM Eastern time at the Alamodome. The game is broadcast on ESPNU and is a Week 11 conference matchup.
Two offenses that pile up yards, two defenses that give them up, and a dome: we lean Over 76.5 at +101 on ProphetX as a matchup read, not a value bet. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 76.5, with the over priced at +104 at Novig and the under at -109 at Bally Bet. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Green (80% of BetMGM tickets on the spread).
Several books (3) moved the spread on away to -2.5 together.
On Kalshi, 70% of the money traded on the moneyline is on North Texas Mean Green (81 trades, $2.1k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 66% of the money traded on the moneyline is on North Texas Mean Green (11 trades, $1.1k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 10, 8:31 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.