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North Dakota State Bison play at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. As of 6:55 AM ET, North Dakota State are 6.5-point favorites and the total is 38.5. Prices come from 13 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 13 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean North Dakota State Bison on the moneyline (79% of tickets).
| Book | BetsNorth Dakota State Bison -6.5Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +6.5 | MoneyNorth Dakota State Bison -6.5Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +6.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsNorth Dakota State BisonHawaii Rainbow Warriors | MoneyNorth Dakota State BisonHawaii Rainbow Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (North Dakota State Bison (-245) / Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+200)) | ||
| BetMGM (North Dakota State Bison (-250) / Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+200)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 38.5Under 38.5 | MoneyOver 38.5Under 38.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | North Dakota State Bison | Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 | +6.5 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | North Dakota State Bison | Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -239Bet at Courtside → | +235Bet at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Spread | -6.5 -110Bet at Hard Rock Bet → | +6.5 +108Bet at Kalshi → exchange price |
| Total 38.5 | O -103Bet at Courtside → | U -108Bet at BetMGM → |
As of 6:55 AM ET, the spread is North Dakota State -6.5 and the total is 38.5, with 13 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | North Dakota State ML | Hawai'i ML | North Dakota State spread | Hawai'i spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -265 | +200 | -6.5 -112 | +6.5 -108 | O 38.5 -107 | U 38.5 -113 |
| BetMGM | -250 | +200 | -6.5 -112 | +6.5 -105 | O 38.5 -110 | U 38.5 -108 |
| betPARX | -265 | +200 | -6.5 -112 | +6.5 -108 | O 38.5 -107 | U 38.5 -113 |
| BetRivers | -265 | +200 | -6.5 -114 | +6.5 -109 | O 38.5 -108 | U 38.5 -115 |
| Caesars | -245 | +200 | -6.5 -114 | +6.5 -106 | O 38.5 -110 | U 38.5 -109 |
| Courtside | -239 | +205 | -6.5 -112 | +6.5 -108 | O 38.5 -103 | U 38.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | -245 | +200 | -6.5 -112 | +6.5 -108 | O 38.5 -105 | U 38.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | -260 | +210 | -6.5 -115 | +6.5 -105 | O 38.5 -110 | U 38.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | -240 | +198 | -6.5 -115 | +6.5 -105 | O 38.5 -110 | U 38.5 -110 |
| Fliff | -255 | +200 | -6.5 -120 | +6.5 -110 | O 38.5 -115 | U 38.5 -120 |
Prices from 13 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Micah Alejado (HAW)228/376, 2,489 YDS, 10 TD, 7 INT (9 GP)
Nathan Hayes (NDSU)145/228, 1,710 YDS, 13 TD, 8 INT (9 GP)Both teams have gone over the total just twice in nine games this season. Now the market posts a 38.5 total on North Dakota State vs Hawai'i, and the forecast at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex calls for 23 mph wind from the ENE. The North Dakota State Bison are 7-2 as of publication. The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors are 3-6. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14 at 11:00 PM ET on CW. The favorite is obvious. The real question is how many points get scored.
North Dakota State is the favorite and sits 3rd of 10 in the Mountain West Conference. This is a conference game. North Dakota State comes off a bye with 13 days of rest, but it traveled 3,800 miles and crossed four time zones west. Hawai'i has 6 days of rest after traveling 3,226 miles from its last game in El Paso and crossing three time zones west. Against the spread (ATS, meaning whether a team beat the betting margin), both teams are 4-5 over nine graded games.
North Dakota State is 1-3 ATS on the road. Hawai'i is 2-2 ATS as an underdog. Both are 2-7 to the over in nine games. Our rating gives North Dakota State a 74% chance to win, a bit higher than the market's 69%. That is context, not a bet. Predicted points added per play (PPA) measures how much each snap changes a team's expected scoring. North Dakota State's defense sits at -0.14 over nine games, so opponents lose value on a typical snap. Hawai'i's defense sits at 0.15.
Hawai'i quarterback Micah Alejado has played all nine games, going 228 of 376 for 2,489 yards, 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions (276.6 yards per game). Over his last five games he is at 293.8 passing yards per game. The problem for him is that North Dakota State allows just 98.2 net passing yards per game over nine games.
North Dakota State's Nathan Hayes has also played nine games: 145 of 228, 1,710 yards, 13 touchdowns, 8 interceptions (190 yards per game). He has added 37 rushing yards per game over his last five. The Bison run for 157.44 yards per game, and Hawai'i allows 181.5 rushing yards per game. Running plays keep the clock moving, and that limits possessions.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. North Dakota State is -225 at Hard Rock Bet, so $100 risked profits $44.44, and the break-even (how often the bet must win just to not lose money) is 69.2%. Hawai'i is +215 at theScore Bet, so $100 profits $215.00, with a 31.7% break-even. Books build in a fee called the vig. Strip it out and the market reads about 69% North Dakota State, 31% Hawai'i.
The Hawai'i spread is +6.5 at +100 at theScore Bet, and it wins if Hawai'i wins outright or loses by 6 or fewer. The home number has moved from 7 to 6.5 at three books and from 6.5 to 6 at four, so shop. The public split shows 94% of BetMGM spread tickets on the Bison, while 98% of Circa money leans Warriors.
Expected value is the average result per bet if you could repeat it many times. The Under is cleaner. At +100 it needs 50%. The Over at -102 needs 50.5% and shows minus $1.92. The edge is thin, but the wind and two 2-7 over records point the same way.
Risk $100 to profit $100.00, with a 50% break-even. At a worse price this small edge shrinks fast, so the number matters.
We see North Dakota State's run game shortening the night and its pass defense limiting Alejado in the wind. Projected score: North Dakota State 22, Hawai'i 14. That adds to 36, under 38.5. That is our read on this number; the Desk's documented free play for the day sits right below if you want the next step.
North Dakota State is the market favorite at -239 (best price at Courtside) on the moneyline, with Hawai'i at +235. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
North Dakota State vs Hawai'i airs on CW. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14 at 11:00 PM ET at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, the home of the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, in a conference game.
The North Dakota State Bison are the favorite at -225 on the moneyline (best at Hard Rock Bet), with Hawai'i at +215 (best at theScore Bet). With the vig removed, the market reads about 69% North Dakota State and 31% Hawai'i.
The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET on CW. The forecast for kickoff is 78 F with 23 mph wind from the ENE and a 16% chance of precipitation.
North Dakota State Bison vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 38.5, with the over priced at -103 at Courtside and the under at -108 at BetMGM. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Bison (94% of BetMGM tickets on the spread), Circa money leans Warriors (98%).
Several books (4) moved the spread on home to 6 together.
On Kalshi, 73% of the money traded on the spread is on North Dakota State Bison (29 trades, $656 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 10, 3:14 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.