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Louisville Cardinals play at North Carolina Tar Heels in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Kenan Stadium. As of 9:50 AM ET, Louisville are 3.5-point favorites and the total is 58.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 15 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (73% of DraftKings tickets, 72% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsLouisville Cardinals -3.5North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5 | MoneyLouisville Cardinals -3.5North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsLouisville CardinalsNorth Carolina Tar Heels | MoneyLouisville CardinalsNorth Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Louisville Cardinals (-180) / North Carolina Tar Heels (+150)) | ||
| BetMGM (Louisville Cardinals (-175) / North Carolina Tar Heels (+145)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 58.5 / Under 58.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 59 / Under 59) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 58.5 / Under 58.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Louisville Cardinals | North Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 | +3.5 |
| Total 59 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | Louisville Cardinals | North Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -165Bet at Hard Rock Bet → | +156Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -3.5 -102Bet at Novig → exchange price | +3.5 +100Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 58.5 | O +100Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 9:50 AM ET, the spread is Louisville -3.5 and the total is 58.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Louisville ML | North Carolina ML | Louisville spread | North Carolina spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -167 | +135 | -3.5 -104 | +3.5 -117 | O 58.5 -106 | U 58.5 -114 |
| bet365 | -172 | +146 | -3.5 -111 | +3.5 -109 | O 58.5 -112 | U 58.5 -108 |
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 | -3.5 -108 | +3.5 -110 | O 58.5 -108 | U 58.5 -110 |
| betPARX | -167 | +135 | -3.5 -104 | +3.5 -117 | O 58.5 -106 | U 58.5 -114 |
| BetRivers | -167 | +135 | -3.5 -105 | +3.5 -120 | O 58.5 -107 | U 58.5 -117 |
| Caesars | -179 | +150 | -3.5 -109 | +3.5 -110 | O 58.5 -113 | U 58.5 -107 |
| Courtside | -176 | +153 | -3.5 -110 | +3.5 -110 | O 58.5 -110 | U 58.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | -180 | +150 | -3.5 -110 | +3.5 -110 | O 58.5 -112 | U 58.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | -180 | +150 | -3.5 -110 | +3.5 -110 | O 58.5 -110 | U 58.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | -166 | +138 | -3.5 -110 | +3.5 -110 | O 58.5 -110 | U 58.5 -110 |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Billy Edwards Jr. (UNC)178/273, 2,127 YDS, 18 TD, 6 INT (9 GP)
Lincoln Kienholz (LOU)158/233, 2,276 YDS, 14 TD, 3 INT (9 GP)The Louisville Cardinals average 488.11 total yards per game. The North Carolina Tar Heels average 353. Yet the market only asks Louisville to win by 3.5 points, and three books have already cut that to 3. For a bettor, this game turns on that half point. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 from Kenan Stadium. The forecast is 43 degrees, a 6 mph wind from the northwest and a 0% chance of rain. Both teams have six days of rest and no time-zone change. Louisville traveled 337 miles from Atlanta for game two of a road trip. North Carolina traveled 533 miles from East Hartford.
The market favors Louisville, which is 6-3 and 3rd of 17 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. North Carolina is 5-4. This is a conference game, and we have no season series to report. Against the spread (ATS, meaning the result after the point handicap), both teams are 6-3 over nine graded games. Louisville is 5-3 ATS as a favorite, and its games have gone over the total 7 of 9 times.
North Carolina is 5-1 ATS as an underdog over six games. Per game, Louisville runs for 228 yards and North Carolina allows 149.78 on the ground. Predicted points added per play (PPA, how much each snap moves a team toward scoring) rates Louisville's offense at 0.34 and North Carolina's at 0.16 over nine games each. Our rating, an Elo model kept as context only, gives Louisville 55%, below the market's 62%.
Lincoln Kienholz has 2,276 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions over nine games, or 252.9 yards per game. Over his last five he averages 227.2 passing yards and 52 rushing yards per game, so his legs matter. Billy Edwards Jr. has 2,127 yards, 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions over nine games, or 236.3 yards per game, and he is at 261.4 passing yards per game over his last five. Both have played all nine games, so per game Kienholz throws fewer interceptions (0.3 to 0.7) while Edwards throws more touchdowns (2 to 1.6).
The moneyline (a bet on who wins outright) has Louisville at -165 at Hard Rock Bet, the best price we found. A minus sign marks the favorite: $100 profits $60.61, and you must win 62.3% of the time to break even. North Carolina is +160 at ProphetX, where $100 profits $156.80 after the book's fee, with a 38.9% break-even.
Louisville must win by 4 or more; a 3-point win loses. $100 profits $98.04, break-even 50.5%. It wins if North Carolina wins or loses by 3 or fewer, paying $100 on $100, break-even 50%. The total moved from 59.5 to 58.5 at three books. The public split at DraftKings shows 73% of spread tickets and 57% of the money on North Carolina.
Books build in a fee called the vig. Remove it and the market reads Louisville about 61.7% to 38.3%. Expected value (EV) is what a bet averages per $100 risked over many tries at that read. Louisville at -165 averages minus $0.83. North Carolina at +160 averages minus $1.76. Louisville -3.5 averages minus $1.10, the over minus $0.73 and the under minus $1.21. Only North Carolina +3.5 at +100 comes out positive. The half point is the reason to care. A Louisville win by exactly 3 cashes +3.5 but only pushes (refunds your stake) at +3, so shop for the bigger number.
This is a small value lean on the spread, not a call that North Carolina wins outright, and it is Desk analysis, not an official play. If your book only shows +3, the math above does not apply to that number.
Louisville's ground game should decide the winner. Edwards' recent passing form gives North Carolina a path to stay within one score. We project Louisville 30, North Carolina 27. That adds to 57 points, under the 58.5 total, and a 3-point Louisville win cashes North Carolina +3.5. That is our North Carolina vs Louisville prediction; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Louisville is the market favorite at -165 (best price at Hard Rock Bet) on the moneyline, with North Carolina at +156. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Louisville vs North Carolina airs on ESPN2. The game kicks off Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET from Kenan Stadium, where the forecast calls for 43 degrees, a 6 mph wind from the northwest and a 0% chance of precipitation.
Louisville is the favorite. The best moneyline is Louisville -165 at Hard Rock Bet, with North Carolina +160 at ProphetX. With the vig removed, the market reads Louisville at about 61.7% to win and North Carolina at about 38.3%. Louisville is -3.5 on the spread.
The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM Eastern time at Kenan Stadium. It is a Week 11 conference game, and the national broadcast is on ESPN2.
Louisville is the deserved favorite, but the one positive number on the board is North Carolina +3.5 at even money, and that half point is the whole story. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 58.5, with the over priced at +100 at Novig and the under at -104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Heels (73% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money is also on Heels (57%).
Several books (3) moved the total on under to 58.5 together.
On Kalshi, 75% of the money traded on the spread is on Louisville Cardinals (65 trades, $4.8k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 62% of the money traded on the spread is on North Carolina Tar Heels (34 trades, $1.1k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 8:14 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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