Rice vs Tulane Prediction: A Run Game Meets a Leaky Front
The Rice Owls run for 270.33 yards per game. The Tulane Green Wave allow 215.33 rushing yards per game. That collision sits at the center of Tulane vs Rice, and the market has made the 1-8 home team the favorite over the 4-5 visitor. When the worse record is laying points, we want to know why, and whether the price is fair.
Who Is Favored to Win Tulane vs Rice?
Rice is favored. Tulane is 4-5 and Rice is 1-8 as of this writing, with Rice listed 14th of 14 in the American Conference. This is a conference game at First Community Stadium, kicking off Saturday, November 14 at 2:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The last meeting was 756 days ago, and Rice lost it. Both teams get 6 days of rest and no time-zone change. Tulane travels 317 miles. Rice comes home after a 260-mile trip from Denton.
The forecast is 64 degrees, a 10 mph east wind and a 2% chance of rain. The styles are stark. Per game, Rice throws for just 93.22 net yards and runs for 270.33, while Tulane averages 193.22 passing and 139.56 rushing. Tulane allows 437.44 total yards per game, Rice 395.89. Against the spread (whether a team beats the betting margin), Tulane is 3-6 over 9 graded games and 3-3 as an underdog. Rice is 4-5 over 9 and 3-1 at home.
Players to Watch
Tulane's Trace Johnson, the quarterback of record last game, has played 5 of 9 games and averages 15.2 completions on 25 attempts for 163.6 yards per game, with 0.4 touchdowns and 1 interception per game. That turnover rate is the risk in his profile. Rice's Jacurri Brown has played 8 of 9 games and averages 59.8 passing yards per game. Over his last 5 games he has averaged 79.2 passing yards and 85.6 rushing yards. One wrinkle: Rice's quarterback of record last game was Gael Ochoa, and we have no stats for him, so who takes the snaps is worth watching.
What Is the Tulane vs Rice Spread?
Start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins outright. Rice is the favorite at -130 (best at theScore Bet): a $100 bet profits $76.92, and it needs to win 56.5% of the time to break even. The spread is a handicap. A 3-point Rice win beats Tulane backers. Neither the spread nor the total has moved since the open.
Strip out the vig (the book's built-in cut) and the moneyline reads about 55.3% Rice, 44.7% Tulane. The public split shows 60% of BetMGM moneyline tickets on Tulane. Exchange buyers lean two ways: 55% of Kalshi moneyline money is on Tulane (113 trades, $2.1k), and 64% of ProphetX spread money is on Rice (26 trades, $888). That is light trading, and those shares can swing.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is your average result per bet if you placed it many times. Our rating, an Elo model used as context only, gives Tulane 60%. PPA (predicted points added, roughly how much each play moves a team's expected score) shows Tulane's defense allowing 0.16 per play against Rice's 0.18 over 9 games each.
The Pick
It carries the lowest break-even on the board at 44.1%. Shop hard. A shorter price chips away at a small edge.
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The Prediction
Rice will lean on the ground, and Tulane has to absorb it without giving the ball away. We see Tulane winning a close one, 24-21. That adds to 45 points, under the 48.5 total, but both sides of the total show negative expectation, so we pass there. That is our read on Tulane vs Rice, and the Desk's documented free play for today sits right below if you want the next step.
Tulane vs Rice FAQ
Who is favored in Tulane vs Rice?
Rice is the market favorite at -132 (best price at Courtside) on the moneyline, with Tulane at +127. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Tulane vs Rice?
Tulane vs Rice streams on ESPN+. The game is at First Community Stadium, with kickoff set for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. The forecast calls for 64 degrees, a 10 mph wind from the east and a 2% chance of precipitation.
What time is the Tulane vs Rice game?
Tulane vs Rice kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET at First Community Stadium. It is a Week 11 conference game, and the broadcast is on ESPN+.
Who will win Rice vs Tulane?
Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Tulane vs Rice?
The total is 48.5, with the over priced at -105 at BetMGM and the under at +100 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these College Football picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in College Football games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Quick answers
Who is the public betting on in Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls?
Public is on Wave (60% of BetMGM tickets on the moneyline).
Where has the Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls line moved?
The spread has held at Owls -2.5 since it opened; the total has held at 48.5.
Where is the money on the exchanges for Tulane Green Wave vs Rice Owls?
On Kalshi, 54% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Tulane Green Wave (118 trades, $2.2k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 64% of the money traded on the spread is on Rice Owls (26 trades, $888 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 12, 3:44 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.