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UNLV Rebels play at New Mexico Lobos in college football on Saturday, November 14, at University Stadium (NM). As of 10:33 AM ET, New Mexico are 14.5-point favorites and the total is 46.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans New Mexico ML.
Prices updated · from 15 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Public is on UNLV Rebels spread (80% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans New Mexico Lobos (65%).
| Book | BetsUNLV Rebels +14.5New Mexico Lobos -14.5 | MoneyUNLV Rebels +14.5New Mexico Lobos -14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsUNLV RebelsNew Mexico Lobos | MoneyUNLV RebelsNew Mexico Lobos |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (UNLV Rebels (+455) / New Mexico Lobos (-625)) | ||
| BetMGM (UNLV Rebels (+475) / New Mexico Lobos (-625)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 46.5Under 46.5 | MoneyOver 46.5Under 46.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | UNLV Rebels | New Mexico Lobos |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +14.5 | -14.5 |
| Total 46.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | UNLV Rebels | New Mexico Lobos |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +545Bet at Novig → exchange price | -600Bet at Courtside → |
| Spread | +14.5 +100Bet at Novig → exchange price | -14.5 +100Bet at theScore Bet → |
| Total 46.5 | O -102Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 10:33 AM ET, the spread is New Mexico -14.5 and the total is 46.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | UNLV ML | New Mexico ML | UNLV spread | New Mexico spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | +475 | -650 | +14.5 -111 | -14.5 -109 | O 46.5 -112 | U 46.5 -108 |
| BetMGM | +475 | -625 | +14.5 -110 | -14.5 -108 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -108 |
| Caesars | +450 | -625 | +14.5 -114 | -14.5 -106 | O 46.5 -113 | U 46.5 -107 |
| Courtside | +471 | -600 | +14.5 -113 | -14.5 -103 | O 46.5 -108 | U 46.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +455 | -625 | +14.5 -115 | -14.5 -105 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +475 | -650 | +14.5 -110 | -14.5 -110 | O 46.5 -115 | U 46.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | +500 | -690 | +14.5 -110 | -14.5 -110 | O 46.5 -115 | U 46.5 -105 |
| Fliff | +470 | -710 | +14.5 -115 | -14.5 -115 | O 46.5 -120 | U 46.5 -115 |
| Novig | +545 | -567 | +14.5 +100 | -14.5 -102 | O 46.5 -102 | U 46.5 -104 |
| ProphetX | +540 | -560 | +14.5 -105 | -14.5 -102 | O 46.5 -105 | U 46.5 -104 |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
UNLV Rebels5th in the Mountain West ConferenceNew Mexico Lobos1st in the Mountain West Conference
Toa Fa'avae (UNM)72/121, 1,041 YDS, 7 TD, 7 INT (9 GP)
Jackson Arnold (UNLV)135/230, 1,738 YDS, 15 TD, 5 INT (9 GP)The New Mexico Lobos allow 71.56 rushing yards per game. The UNLV Rebels run for 174 per game. One of those numbers breaks Saturday night at University Stadium (NM), and the betting line has refused to budge while it waits. About 80% of the spread tickets at DraftKings sit on UNLV, yet the line opened at New Mexico -14.5 and is still there. When the public leans hard one way and the number stays put, the book is comfortable holding that position. Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on the CW.
New Mexico is the clear favorite. As of publication the Lobos are 8-1, first of 10 in the Mountain West, and ranked No. 23 in the AP poll. UNLV is 5-4, fifth of 10. New Mexico won the last meeting, 378 days ago. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin, not just the game), New Mexico is 7-2 over nine graded games and 4-0 at home. UNLV is 4-5 over nine, including 2-2 on the road.
Both teams are 3-6 to the over in nine games, meaning their games have usually landed below the posted total. UNLV comes in on six days of rest after a 482-mile trip, crossing one time zone east. New Mexico has seven days of rest after traveling 785 miles from its last game in Reno. The stadium sits about 1,513 meters up, and the forecast calls for 52 degrees, a 10 mph west wind and a 9% chance of rain.
UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold has played all nine games, averaging 193.1 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions per game. Over his last five he is at 169.4 passing yards and 65.8 rushing yards per game, so his legs matter. New Mexico's Toa Fa'avae has also played all nine, averaging 115.7 passing yards, 0.8 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game, with 130.2 passing and 36.6 rushing yards per game over his last five. New Mexico wins on the ground at 213.11 rushing yards per game, while UNLV allows 207.67.
The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. New Mexico is -570 at ProphetX: risk $100 to profit $17.19 after the book's fee, and you need New Mexico to win 85.3% of the time to break even. The spread is the margin bet. New Mexico -14.5 at +100 (theScore Bet) needs a win by 15 or more and 50% to break even. Shopping matters: these are the best prices we found across the books we track.
The vig is the book's built-in cut. Strip it out and the market sees New Mexico winning about 85.8% of the time to UNLV's 14.2%. Expected value is that long-run average, not what one ticket pays. Every other price on the board is negative: UNLV moneyline minus $8.21, UNLV +14.5 minus $0.38, New Mexico -14.5 minus $0.60, Over minus $0.70, Under minus $3.15, all per $100 risked. Be honest about the margin.
We lean New Mexico moneyline at -570 at ProphetX. It is a thin, price-driven lean, so size it small and pass if the number gets worse.
New Mexico's run defense dictates terms, Arnold has to make plays outside the pocket, and the Lobos grind out the clock. We project New Mexico 27, UNLV 16. That adds to 43 points, under the 46.5 total, and an 11-point margin would land inside UNLV's +14.5, which is exactly why we take the winner here and not the points. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.
New Mexico is the market favorite at -600 (best price at Courtside) on the moneyline, with UNLV at +545. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
UNLV vs New Mexico airs on the CW. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at University Stadium (NM), with the New Mexico Lobos hosting the UNLV Rebels in a Mountain West conference game.
The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. It is played at University Stadium (NM), and the broadcast is on the CW. The forecast calls for 52 degrees with a 10 mph west wind.
UNLV Rebels vs New Mexico Lobos College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 46.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at -104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Rebels (80% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money is also on Rebels (100%).
The spread has held at Lobos -14.5 since it opened; the total has held at 46.5.
On Kalshi, 78% of the money traded on the moneyline is on New Mexico Lobos (159 trades, $1.5k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 66% of the money traded on the spread is on UNLV Rebels (17 trades, $1.4k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 9:44 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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