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Utah State Aggies play at San Diego State Aztecs in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Snapdragon Stadium. As of 8:33 AM ET, Utah State are 2.5-point favorites and the total is 42.5. Prices come from 14 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 14 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
| Book | BetsUtah State Aggies -3San Diego State Aztecs +3 | MoneyUtah State Aggies -3San Diego State Aztecs +3 |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsUtah State Aggies (-145)San Diego State Aztecs (+120) | MoneyUtah State Aggies (-145)San Diego State Aztecs (+120) |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 42.5Under 42.5 | MoneyOver 42.5Under 42.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Utah State Aggies | San Diego State Aztecs |
|---|---|---|
| Total 42.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Utah State Aggies | San Diego State Aztecs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -139Bet at Courtside → | +133Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -2.5 -115Bet at Caesars → | +2.5 +113Bet at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Total 42.5 | O -105Bet at Hard Rock Bet → | U +100Bet at Kalshi → exchange price |
As of 8:33 AM ET, the spread is Utah State -2.5 and the total is 42.5, with 14 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Utah State ML | San Diego State ML | Utah State spread | San Diego State spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -150 | +120 | -2.5 -117 | +2.5 -104 | O 42.5 -107 | U 42.5 -113 |
| betPARX | -150 | +120 | -2.5 -117 | +2.5 -104 | O 42.5 -107 | U 42.5 -113 |
| BetRivers | -150 | +120 | -2.5 -120 | +2.5 -105 | O 42.5 -108 | U 42.5 -115 |
| Caesars | -141 | +120 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | O 42.5 -109 | U 42.5 -110 |
| Courtside | -139 | +122 | -2.5 -118 | +2.5 -102 | O 42.5 -106 | U 42.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | -142 | +120 | -2.5 -118 | +2.5 -102 | O 42.5 -108 | U 42.5 -112 |
| FanDuel | -146 | +122 | -2.5 -120 | +2.5 +100 | O 42.5 -110 | U 42.5 -110 |
| Fliff | -150 | +115 | -2.5 -125 | +2.5 -105 | O 42.5 -120 | U 42.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +120 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | O 42.5 -105 | U 42.5 -110 |
| ProphetX | -140 | +134 | -2.5 -114 | +2.5 +113 | O 42.5 -109 | U 42.5 +104 |
Prices from 14 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Utah State Aggies5th in the Pac-12 ConferenceSan Diego State Aztecs4th in the Pac-12 Conference
Jayden Denegal (SDSU)83/151, 899 YDS, 7 TD, 5 INT (7 GP)
Grady Brosterhous (USU)99/178, 1,120 YDS, 7 TD, 6 INT (7 GP)Six prices on this board, and five of them cost you money on average. The sixth pays just 19 cents per $100 risked. The Utah State Aggies visit the San Diego State Aztecs at Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday, November 14, at 9:30 PM ET on USA Net. One team has beaten the betting market all year. The other has not covered a single road game. The margin for error here is tiny, so the price you take matters more than usual.
Both teams are 4-5 as of this writing. In the Pac-12 Conference, San Diego State sits 4th of 8 and Utah State 5th of 8. They last met 721 days ago, and San Diego State lost. Rest favors the home side. San Diego State has 13 days off after a bye, and this is game 2 of a home stand. Utah State gets 6 days of rest and travels 688 miles, crossing one time zone west.
The per-game averages over nine games are close on offense: 319.78 total yards for Utah State, 324.56 for San Diego State. Defense is the gap. Utah State allows 327.67 yards per game. San Diego State allows 481.6. Against the spread (ATS, meaning beating the betting margin, not just winning), Utah State is 6-3 over nine graded games. San Diego State is 3-6 over nine, though 3-2 at home.
Grady Brosterhous leads Utah State at 160 passing yards per game over 7 games played, with 1 touchdown and 0.9 interceptions per game. Jayden Denegal leads San Diego State at 128.4 passing yards per game over 7 games played, with 1 touchdown and 0.7 interceptions per game. Over his last 5 games, Brosterhous averages 171.4 passing yards. Over his last 5, Denegal averages 143.4. A big caution: the quarterback of record in each team's last game was someone else, McCae Hillstead for Utah State and Stone Saunders for San Diego State. The leaders may not start Saturday.
Utah State is the favorite. Minus means you risk $127 to profit $100. Plus means $100 profits $125. Remove the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads it about 56.1% to 43.9% for Utah State. Our rating, an Elo model used only as context, has San Diego State 51% to 49%. The Utah State vs San Diego State spread is 2.5. Utah State -2.5 at -107 (ProphetX) wins only on a win by 3 or more. San Diego State +2.5 at +104 (ProphetX) wins if the Aztecs win or lose by 2 or fewer. A half point means no push (a tie on the bet).
Break-even is the win rate a price needs to stop losing money. Expected value is what a bet earns or loses on average over many tries. The lone positive is Utah State at -127. That is an average, not a payout. A winning $100 ticket profits $78.74. Utah State -2.5 is a separate bet on the margin, needs 52.2%, and grades negative.
This is Desk analysis, not an official play. A worse number erases it.
We expect a grind. Utah State's games are 1-8 on the over-under across nine games (one over, eight unders), and San Diego State arrives rested enough to keep it tight. The forecast is mild: 68 degrees, 10 mph wind from the west, 30% chance of rain. Projected score: Utah State 21, San Diego State 19. That adds to 40, under the 42.5 total, and a two-point win is exactly where the moneyline cashes and Utah State -2.5 loses. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Utah State is the market favorite at -139 (best price at Courtside) on the moneyline, with San Diego State at +133. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs game airs on USA Net. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, at 9:30 PM ET at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego.
Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, at 9:30 PM ET at Snapdragon Stadium. The game is broadcast on USA Net. The forecast calls for 68 degrees, a 10 mph wind from the west and a 30% chance of precipitation.
Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 42.5, with the over priced at -105 at Hard Rock Bet and the under at +100 at Kalshi. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Aggies (57% of BetMGM tickets on the spread).
Several books (3) moved the total on over to 42.5 together.
On Kalshi, 94% of the money traded on the moneyline is on San Diego State Aztecs (38 trades, $1.0k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 95% of the money traded on the spread is on Utah State Aggies (12 trades, $821 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 10, 8:49 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.