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Alabama Crimson Tide play at Vanderbilt Commodores in college football on Saturday, November 14, at FirstBank Stadium. As of 8:49 AM ET, Alabama are 17.5-point favorites and the total is 50.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Alabama ML. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean Alabama Crimson Tide on the spread (90% of tickets).
| Book | BetsAlabama Crimson TideVanderbilt Commodores | MoneyAlabama Crimson TideVanderbilt Commodores |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Alabama Crimson Tide -17.5 / Vanderbilt Commodores +17.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Alabama Crimson Tide -17 / Vanderbilt Commodores +17) | ||
| BetMGM (Alabama Crimson Tide -17 / Vanderbilt Commodores +17) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsAlabama Crimson TideVanderbilt Commodores | MoneyAlabama Crimson TideVanderbilt Commodores |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Alabama Crimson Tide (-950) / Vanderbilt Commodores (+625)) | ||
| BetMGM (Alabama Crimson Tide (-900) / Vanderbilt Commodores (+650)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 50.5 / Under 50.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 50 / Under 50) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 50.5 / Under 50.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Alabama Crimson Tide | Vanderbilt Commodores |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -17 | +17 |
| Total 50 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
| Market | Alabama Crimson Tide | Vanderbilt Commodores |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -780Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | +733Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -17.5 +100Bet at Courtside → | +17.5 -103Bet at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Total 50.5 | O +100Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | U -104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 8:49 AM ET, the spread is Alabama -17.5 and the total is 50.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Alabama ML | Vanderbilt ML | Alabama spread | Vanderbilt spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | -950 | +625 | -17.5 -107 | +17.5 -113 | O 50.5 -109 | U 50.5 -111 |
| Caesars | -950 | +600 | -17.5 -104 | +17.5 -117 | O 50.5 -112 | U 50.5 -109 |
| Courtside | -898 | +652 | -17.5 +100 | +17.5 -116 | O 50.5 -106 | U 50.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | -950 | +625 | -17.5 -102 | +17.5 -118 | O 50.5 -108 | U 50.5 -112 |
| FanDuel | -1000 | +660 | -17.5 -110 | +17.5 -110 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -110 |
| Fliff | -1010 | +610 | -17.5 -110 | +17.5 -125 | O 50.5 -115 | U 50.5 -120 |
| Novig | -809 | +733 | -17.5 +100 | +17.5 -108 | O 50.5 -104 | U 50.5 -104 |
| ProphetX | -780 | +750 | -17.5 -104 | +17.5 -103 | O 50.5 +100 | U 50.5 -105 |
| theScore Bet | -1200 | +700 | -17.5 -110 | +17.5 -110 | O 50.5 -105 | U 50.5 -115 |
| Bally Bet | -910 | +575 | – | – | O 50.5 -112 | U 50.5 -108 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Jared Curtis (VAN)145/224, 1,657 YDS, 8 TD, 8 INT (8 GP)
Keelon Russell (ALA)165/245, 2,263 YDS, 18 TD, 5 INT (9 GP)Ninety percent of DraftKings spread tickets are on the Alabama Crimson Tide, and 98% of the money there agrees. That is a one-sided crowd for a road favorite laying 17.5 points to the Vanderbilt Commodores at FirstBank Stadium. A public split (the share of bets on each side) is not a recommendation, though. Our job is to find which price, if any, pays more than it should. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, at 12:45 PM ET on SEC Network.
Alabama is 7-2 and No. 7 in the AP Top 25. Vanderbilt is 4-5 and 16th of 16 in the Southeastern Conference. The last meeting was 406 days ago, and Vanderbilt lost. Both teams have 6 days of rest and no time-zone change. Alabama is on game 2 of a road trip after traveling 470 miles from Baton Rouge. Vanderbilt traveled 221 miles from Starkville. Over 9 games each, Alabama gains 397.78 yards per game and allows 344.44. Vanderbilt gains 341.11 per game and allows 359.11.
PPA (predicted points added per play, roughly how much each snap moves a team toward points) tells the same story. Alabama sits at 0.23 on offense and -0.05 on defense (below zero is good for a defense). Vanderbilt sits at 0.08 and 0.13 over 9 games. Against the spread (results after the point handicap), Alabama is 5-4 over 9 graded games and 3-1 on the road. Vanderbilt is 4-5 over 9, 1-4 at home and 3-2 as an underdog.
Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell has played all 9 games and averages 251.4 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions per game. Vanderbilt's Jared Curtis has played 8 of 9 games and averages 207.1 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception per game. Per game, Russell throws for about 44 more yards with more scores and fewer picks. Recent form is closer. Russell averages 226.8 passing yards over his last 5 games, and Curtis averages 222 over his last 5. Both were the quarterback of record in their last game.
Here are the Alabama vs Vanderbilt odds at the best books we track. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Alabama is -780 at ProphetX, so a $100 bet profits $12.56 after the book's fee. The spread is a handicap. Alabama -17.5 at +100 (Courtside) wins only if Alabama wins by 18 or more; a 17-point win loses.
Vanderbilt +17.5 at -103 (ProphetX) wins if Vanderbilt wins or loses by 17 or fewer. The half point means no push (a tie with the line that refunds your bet). The spread has moved between 17 and 19 at several books, so shop before you click. Weather looks clean: 48 F, a 5 mph wind and a 0% chance of rain.
Vig is the book's built-in cut. Strip it out and the market makes Alabama about 89.1% to win and Vanderbilt 10.9%. Break-even is how often a bet must win to avoid losing money over time. Expected value is the average result across many bets, not what one ticket pays. Every other line is negative per $100 risked: Vanderbilt +733 at minus $8.95, Alabama -17.5 at minus $2.47, Vanderbilt +17.5 at minus $0.01, the Over at minus $1.00 and the Under at minus $1.92. For context, our rating gives Alabama 74%, well below the market's 89%, so this edge is thin.
We lean Alabama moneyline at -780, best at ProphetX. This is a small edge, not a big one. You risk $100 to profit $12.56, and a single loss costs far more than a win pays. Size it small. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
Alabama's per-game yardage edge and stronger PPA on both sides of the ball point to a controlled win. We project Alabama 31, Vanderbilt 17. That adds to 48 points, under the 50.5 total, and the 14-point margin would land inside the 17.5 spread. We are not playing either of those lines, because both carry negative expectation at the best prices. The moneyline is the one number that clears its break-even. That is the read on this game; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Alabama is the market favorite at -780 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Vanderbilt at +733. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt airs on SEC Network. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 12:45 PM ET at FirstBank Stadium. The forecast calls for 48 F, a 5 mph wind from the north and a 0% chance of precipitation.
The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 12:45 PM Eastern time at FirstBank Stadium. It is a Week 11 regular-season conference game, and it airs on SEC Network.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 50.5, with the over priced at +100 at ProphetX and the under at -104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Tide (90% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money is also on Tide (98%).
Several books (4) moved the spread on home to 17 together.
On Kalshi, 96% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Alabama Crimson Tide (1320 trades, $62k traded). On Polymarket, 99% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Alabama Crimson Tide (39 trades, $2.5k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 86% of the money traded on the spread is on Vanderbilt Commodores (38 trades, $1.2k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 8:39 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.