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Arizona State Sun Devils play at UCF Knights in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Acrisure Bounce House. As of 4:54 AM ET, UCF are 3-point favorites and the total is 48.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans UCF moneyline. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: UCF Knights (80% of DraftKings tickets, 89% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsArizona State Sun Devils +3UCF Knights -3 | MoneyArizona State Sun Devils +3UCF Knights -3 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsArizona State Sun Devils (+130)UCF Knights (-155) | MoneyArizona State Sun Devils (+130)UCF Knights (-155) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 48.5Under 48.5 | MoneyOver 48.5Under 48.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Arizona State Sun Devils | UCF Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 | -3 |
| Total 48.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | Arizona State Sun Devils | UCF Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +141Bet at Novig → exchange price | -144Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +3 -104betPARX | -3 -110Bet at Fanatics → |
| Total 48.5 | O +104Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -105betPARX |
As of 4:54 AM ET, the spread is UCF -3 and the total is 48.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Arizona State ML | UCF ML | Arizona State spread | UCF spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +135 | -167 | +3 -104 | -3 -115 | O 48.5 -115 | U 48.5 -105 |
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 | +3 -105 | -3 -112 | O 48.5 -108 | U 48.5 -110 |
| betPARX | +135 | -167 | +3 -104 | -3 -115 | O 48.5 -115 | U 48.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | +135 | -167 | +3 -106 | -3 -117 | O 48.5 -117 | U 48.5 -107 |
| Caesars | +138 | -164 | +3 -106 | -3 -114 | O 48.5 -110 | U 48.5 -109 |
| Courtside | +133 | -152 | +3 -106 | -3 -110 | O 48.5 -106 | U 48.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | +3 -108 | -3 -112 | O 48.5 -108 | U 48.5 -112 |
| Fanatics | +135 | -160 | +3 -110 | -3 -110 | O 48.5 -105 | U 48.5 -115 |
| bet365 | +133 | -158 | – | – | O 48.5 -109 | U 48.5 -111 |
| FanDuel | +130 | -156 | – | – | O 48.5 -110 | U 48.5 -110 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Keyone Jenkins (UCF)122/180, 1,181 YDS, 11 TD, 4 INT (8 GP)
Cutter Boley (ASU)105/173, 1,360 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT (7 GP)Three points. That is all the market puts between two 5-4 teams, and the number already slid a half point to get there. The Arizona State Sun Devils visit the UCF Knights at the Acrisure Bounce House on Saturday, November 14, at 3:30 PM ET on ESPN2. Both quarterback rooms carry a question mark.
UCF is the favorite in this Week 11 conference game. Both teams are 5-4 as of publication, and UCF sits 9th of 16 in the Big 12. The last meeting came 735 days ago, and UCF lost it. Per-game averages over nine games favor Arizona State on yardage: 384.89 yards gained and 345.78 allowed, against UCF's 359 gained and 379 allowed.
PPA (predicted points added, roughly the points each play is worth on average) favors UCF's offense, 0.08 per play to 0.05. On defense, where lower is better, Arizona State allows 0.03 and UCF allows 0.08. Against the spread (ATS, meaning whether a team beat the betting line), UCF is 6-3 and Arizona State 5-4, over nine graded games each. Both teams have six days of rest, but Arizona State traveled 1,833 miles and crossed two time zones east.
Keyone Jenkins leads UCF's passing over eight games: 122 of 180 for 1,181 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. That works out to 147.6 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions per game. Cutter Boley leads Arizona State over seven games at 194.3 yards, 1.9 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game. Recent form flips that order.
Jenkins has averaged 210.6 passing yards per game over his last five games, and Boley has averaged 143.8 over his last five. The catch is that neither was the quarterback of record last game. Jake Fette was for Arizona State. Alonza Barnett III was for UCF, a change from the game before. Watch who takes the first snap.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. UCF is -150 at FanDuel, so a $100 bet profits $66.67. The spread handicaps the favorite. A three-point UCF win is a push, meaning your stake comes back. That spread moved from 3.5 to 3 at three books within five minutes. The public split shows 65% of BetMGM spread tickets on the Knights. The total, meaning combined points, is 48.5: Over -110 at BetMGM, Under -105 at betPARX. The forecast calls for 63 degrees and a 10 mph north wind. These are the best Arizona State vs UCF odds across the books we track. Shopping for them costs nothing.
Every price carries vig, the sportsbook's built-in cut. Strip it out and the market reads UCF at about 59.9% and Arizona State at 40.1%. Break-even is the win rate a price needs to make money over time. Arizona State +141 needs 41.5%, more than the market's 40.1%. By the market's own math, every bet on this board is slightly negative. The UCF moneyline gives back the least. For context, our rating (an Elo model built on past results) has UCF at only 52%. That is why this stays a thin lean.
We lean UCF Knights moneyline -150 at FanDuel. This is a matchup lean, not a value play. The price sits a hair past break-even, so keep the stake small, and take -146 or better if it shows up. We are passing on UCF -3. At -110 it needs 52.4%, and the market gives it 51.2%.
Our Arizona State vs UCF prediction is UCF 27, Arizona State 21. That adds up to 48 points, a half point under the 48.5 total, and a six-point UCF win. We expect a tight first half, then the home side leaning on a ground game that averages 146.22 rushing yards per game over nine games. That is the Desk's read on this number. If you want a documented play to go with it, the free daily play is posted right below.
UCF is the market favorite at -144 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Arizona State at +141. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Arizona State vs UCF airs on ESPN2. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 3:30 PM ET at the Acrisure Bounce House, home of the UCF Knights. It is a Week 11 conference game between two teams that are 5-4 as of publication.
Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026, at the Acrisure Bounce House, and the game airs on ESPN2. The forecast calls for 63 degrees, a 10 mph wind from the north and a 1% chance of precipitation.
UCF is the -150 favorite at FanDuel, and we lean the Knights moneyline as a thin play while every price on the board runs slightly negative. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 48.5, with the over priced at +104 at Novig and the under at -105 at betPARX. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Knights (65% of BetMGM tickets on the spread).
Several books (3) moved the spread on away to 3 together.
On Kalshi, 56% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Arizona State Sun Devils (102 trades, $1.6k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 71% of the money traded on the spread is on UCF Knights (13 trades, $1.2k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 12, 8:14 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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