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Coastal Carolina vs Arkansas State Prediction: A Thin Favorite
Every ticket on this board loses money against the market's own read. That is the puzzle in Coastal Carolina vs Arkansas State. The home team is favored, yet the visitors grade out better per play and give the ball away less. The Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Brooks Stadium (SC) on Saturday, November 14 at 1:00 PM ET, streaming on ESPN+. It is a Week 11 conference game. The forecast is clean: 56 degrees, a 9 mph wind from the northwest, and a 0% chance of rain.
The Matchup
As of this writing, Arkansas State is 4-5 and Coastal Carolina is 3-6. Both teams are 4-5 against the spread (ATS, meaning whether they beat the betting margin) over nine graded games. Both are also 4-5 on the over/under. The splits are sharper. Coastal is 1-4 ATS at home and 3-1 on the road. Arkansas State is 2-2 ATS on the road. Both teams get six days of rest. Arkansas State travels 675 miles and crosses one time zone east, while Coastal plays game two of a home stand.
Turnovers are the biggest gap. Over nine games, Coastal commits 2.11 per game and Arkansas State 1.11. Arkansas State's soft spot is its run defense, which allows 203.56 rushing yards per game. One more lens is PPA (predicted points added per play, roughly how many points each snap is worth). Arkansas State's offense sits at 0.17 and Coastal's at 0.08. On defense, where lower is better, Coastal allows 0.1 and Arkansas State 0.16.
Players to Watch
Coastal quarterback Deuce Bailey has played all nine games, averaging 242 passing yards, 2.1 touchdowns and 1 interception per game. Arkansas State's Trey Owens has also played all nine, averaging 237 yards, 1.3 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions per game. Over his last five games, Owens averages 259.2 passing yards and 33.8 rushing yards per game. Over the same stretch, Bailey averages 227.8 and 20.8.
Who Is Favored, and What Is the Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina Spread?
Coastal Carolina is the favorite. On the moneyline (a bet on who wins outright), Coastal is -110 at FanDuel, so a $100 bet profits $90.91. Arkansas State is the +106 underdog at ProphetX, where $100 profits $103.88 after the book's fee. The vig is the house's built-in cut. With it removed, the market reads Coastal at about 51.9% and Arkansas State at 48.1%. Arkansas State +1.5 wins with an outright win or a one-point loss.
Coastal -1.5 needs to win by two or more. This spread already moved, flipping from 1 to -1 at four books within five minutes. The public split shows 86% of BetMGM spread tickets on the Chanticleers. On ProphetX, 66% of the money traded on the spread is on Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (15 trades, $1.0k traded), which is light trading that can swing. The best prices sit at three different books, which is exactly why we shop every line.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is what a bet returns on average per $100 risked over many tries. Nothing here is positive. Arkansas State +1.5 at -108 needs 51.9% against a 50.7% cover read, minus $2.36. So no number is mispriced in our favor. What tips us is the matchup: the better per-play offense, roughly half the giveaways, and a home favorite that is 1-4 ATS in five home games. Our rating, which is context only, has Arkansas State at 52%. This is a matchup lean, not a market edge.
The Pick
If +106 disappears, we would not chase a worse price.
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The Prediction
We expect Owens to move the ball and Coastal's turnovers to cost it a possession or two. Coastal's run game against that leaky rush defense keeps this close. Our projection is Arkansas State 27, Coastal Carolina 24. That adds up to 51 points, just under the 51.5 total, which is too close to justify a bet on the total. That is our read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play for the day sits right below.
Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina FAQ
Who is favored in Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina?
Coastal Carolina is the market favorite at -113 (best price at FanDuel) on the moneyline, with Arkansas State at +105. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina?
Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina streams on ESPN+. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET at Brooks Stadium (SC), where the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in a Week 11 conference game.
Who is favored to win Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina?
Coastal Carolina is a slim favorite. Its moneyline is -110 at FanDuel, while Arkansas State is the +106 underdog at ProphetX. The spread has Coastal at -1.5. With the vig removed, the market reads Coastal at about 51.9% and Arkansas State at 48.1%.
What time is the Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina game?
The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET at Brooks Stadium (SC). The forecast for kickoff is 56 degrees with a 9 mph wind from the northwest and a 0% chance of precipitation. The game streams on ESPN+.
Who will win Coastal Carolina vs Arkansas State?
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina?
The total is 51.5, with the over priced at -105 at Caesars and the under at -108 at betPARX. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these College Football picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in College Football games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Quick answers
Who is the public betting on in Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers?
Public is on Chanticleers (86% of BetMGM tickets on the spread).
Where has the Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers line moved?
Several books (4) moved the spread on home to -1 together.
Where is the money on the exchanges for Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers?
On ProphetX, 66% of the money traded on the spread is on Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (15 trades, $1.0k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 11, 2:33 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.