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Baylor Bears play at BYU Cougars in college football on Saturday, November 14, at LaVell Edwards Stadium. As of 8:33 AM ET, BYU are 7.5-point favorites and the total is 49.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 15 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: BYU Cougars (62% of DraftKings tickets, 77% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsBaylor Bears +7.5BYU Cougars -7.5 | MoneyBaylor Bears +7.5BYU Cougars -7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsBaylor Bears (+230)BYU Cougars (-285) | MoneyBaylor Bears (+230)BYU Cougars (-285) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 49.5Under 49.5 | MoneyOver 49.5Under 49.5 |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7.5 | -7.5 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
| Market | Baylor Bears | BYU Cougars |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +257Bet at Novig → exchange price | -270Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +7.5 -110Bet at Hard Rock Bet → | -7.5 +106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 49.5 | O +104Bet at Kalshi → exchange price | U -102Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 8:33 AM ET, the spread is BYU -7.5 and the total is 49.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Baylor ML | BYU ML | Baylor spread | BYU spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +230 | -285 | +7.5 -115 | -7.5 -105 | O 49.5 -110 | U 49.5 -108 |
| Caesars | +230 | -290 | +7.5 -115 | -7.5 -106 | O 49.5 -104 | U 49.5 -117 |
| Courtside | +236 | -278 | +7.5 -112 | -7.5 -108 | O 49.5 -108 | U 49.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +230 | -285 | +7.5 -112 | -7.5 -108 | O 49.5 -110 | U 49.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +230 | -285 | +7.5 -115 | -7.5 -105 | O 49.5 -110 | U 49.5 -110 |
| Fliff | +225 | -295 | +7.5 -120 | -7.5 -115 | O 49.5 -115 | U 49.5 -120 |
| Novig | +257 | -270 | +7.5 -111 | -7.5 +106 | O 49.5 -104 | U 49.5 -102 |
| theScore Bet | +250 | -300 | +7.5 -120 | -7.5 +100 | O 49.5 -105 | U 49.5 -115 |
| Bally Bet | +230 | -295 | +7.5 -112 | -7.5 -108 | – | – |
| betPARX | +230 | -295 | +7.5 -112 | -7.5 -108 | – | – |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Baylor Bears6th in the Big 12 ConferenceBYU Cougars3rd in the Big 12 Conference
Bear Bachmeier (BYU)156/249, 2,022 YDS, 13 TD, 8 INT (9 GP)
DJ Lagway (BAY)145/270, 1,900 YDS, 15 TD, 4 INT (7 GP)This line opened at BYU -6.5 and has moved to -7.5 after 12 moves. That one point changes everything: a seven-point BYU win used to cash for anyone backing the Cougars, and now it loses. The Baylor Bears visit the No. 12 BYU Cougars at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday, November 14, at 3:30 PM ET on Fox. On the moneyline the game looks lopsided. On the spread it sits right on a knife's edge.
As of this writing, Baylor is 6-3 and sixth of 16 in the Big 12. BYU is 7-2, third in the conference, and ranked No. 12 in the AP poll. Both teams cover. Against the spread (a team's record once the points line is counted), Baylor is 7-2 over nine graded games, including 4-0 on the road and 3-0 as an underdog. BYU is 6-3 over nine, with a 4-1 mark at home and 5-2 as a favorite.
In per-game averages over nine games, Baylor gains 433.44 yards and allows 348.22, while BYU gains 397.11 and allows 302.22. Our rating, a context model and not a bet, gives BYU 65% to win, a bit lower than the market. Travel tilts toward the home side: Baylor flew 1,008 miles, crossed one time zone west and climbs to about 1,394 meters of altitude. BYU came 39 miles from Salt Lake City. Both teams had six days of rest.
DJ Lagway has played seven games for Baylor, averaging 271.4 passing yards, 2.1 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions per game. Over his last five games he has averaged 269.2 passing yards and 33.6 rushing yards. Bear Bachmeier has played nine games for BYU, averaging 224.7 passing yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions per game. Over his last five games he jumped to 263.6 passing yards and 53 rushing yards per game. Bachmeier running the ball is a real threat. Because the two quarterbacks have played different numbers of games, we compare them per game only.
BYU is the favorite. With BYU at -270, a $100 bet profits $37.04. With Baylor at +257, a $100 bet profits $257.00. Take out the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads this about 72.6% BYU to 27.4% Baylor. The spread (a bet on the margin) has Baylor +7.5 at -110 at Hard Rock Bet, which wins if Baylor wins or loses by 7 or fewer. The total also moved, from 48.5 to 49.5. Expect 47 F with a 54% chance of rain.
Break-even is how often a bet must win to stop losing money, and expected value is your average result over many bets. At the market's own no-vig read, every price here comes out slightly negative. It breaks even at 49%. That gap is why you shop for the best line.
This is a matchup lean, not a market edge. BYU's defense allows fewer yards per game, the Cougars are 4-1 against the spread at home, and Baylor carries the travel and altitude. A seven-point BYU win loses this ticket, so size it small.
Our BYU vs Baylor prediction is BYU 30, Baylor 20. That adds up to 50 points, a half point over the 49.5 total, which is too close for us to bet the total. A 10-point win clears the 7.5. That is the read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play for the day sits right below if you want the next step.
BYU is the market favorite at -270 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Baylor at +257. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Baylor vs BYU airs on Fox. The Baylor Bears visit the BYU Cougars at LaVell Edwards Stadium, with kickoff set for Saturday, November 14, at 3:30 PM Eastern time in a Big 12 conference game.
Kickoff for Baylor vs BYU is Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 3:30 PM Eastern time at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The game is televised on Fox, and the forecast calls for 47 F with a 54% chance of precipitation.
Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 49.5, with the over priced at +104 at Kalshi and the under at -102 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Cougars (68% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money leans Bears (82%).
The spread opened Cougars -6.5 and is now -7.5; the total moved from 48.5 to 49.5; several books (3) moved the total on over to 49.5 together.
On Kalshi, 58% of the money traded on the moneyline is on BYU Cougars (538 trades, $8.6k traded). On Polymarket, 86% of the money traded on the spread is on BYU Cougars (69 trades, $14k traded). On ProphetX, 67% of the money traded on the spread is on BYU Cougars (28 trades, $2.2k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 7:00 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.