@
Duke Blue Devils play at Miami Hurricanes in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Hard Rock Stadium. As of 8:33 AM ET, Miami are 13.5-point favorites and the total is 54.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 15 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Public is on the Over (87% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans the Under (68%).
| Book | BetsDuke Blue Devils +13.5Miami Hurricanes -13.5 | MoneyDuke Blue Devils +13.5Miami Hurricanes -13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsDuke Blue DevilsMiami Hurricanes | MoneyDuke Blue DevilsMiami Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Duke Blue Devils (+410) / Miami Hurricanes (-550)) | ||
| BetMGM (Duke Blue Devils (+425) / Miami Hurricanes (-550)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 54.5Under 54.5 | MoneyOver 54.5Under 54.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Duke Blue Devils | Miami Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 | -13.5 |
| Total 54.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Duke Blue Devils | Miami Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +471Bet at Novig → exchange price | -506Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +13.5 +100Bet at Novig → exchange price | -13.5 -104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 54.5 | O -106Bet at Caesars → | U -106Bet at Courtside → |
As of 8:33 AM ET, the spread is Miami -13.5 and the total is 54.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Duke ML | Miami ML | Duke spread | Miami spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +440 | -670 | +13.5 -108 | -13.5 -112 | O 54.5 -109 | U 54.5 -110 |
| BetMGM | +425 | -550 | +13.5 -108 | -13.5 -110 | O 54.5 -110 | U 54.5 -108 |
| betPARX | +440 | -670 | +13.5 -108 | -13.5 -112 | O 54.5 -109 | U 54.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +440 | -670 | +13.5 -109 | -13.5 -114 | O 54.5 -112 | U 54.5 -112 |
| Caesars | +425 | -590 | +13.5 -109 | -13.5 -110 | O 54.5 -106 | U 54.5 -114 |
| Courtside | +423 | -530 | +13.5 -106 | -13.5 -110 | O 54.5 -110 | U 54.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | +410 | -550 | +13.5 -108 | -13.5 -112 | O 54.5 -112 | U 54.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | +425 | -575 | +13.5 -110 | -13.5 -110 | O 54.5 -110 | U 54.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +420 | -550 | +13.5 -110 | -13.5 -110 | O 54.5 -110 | U 54.5 -110 |
| Fliff | +415 | -605 | +13.5 -115 | -13.5 -115 | O 54.5 -120 | U 54.5 -115 |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Darian Mensah (MIA)212/276, 2,694 YDS, 28 TD, 2 INT (9 GP)
Walker Eget (DUKE)155/246, 1,849 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT (9 GP)The No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 is giving 13.5 points at home. The team getting those points has beaten the betting line in seven of its nine graded games. That is the whole fight in Duke vs Miami. The Duke Blue Devils visit the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, November 14, at 12:00 PM ET on ABC. The forecast is 67 degrees, a 12 mph wind from the northwest and a 0% chance of rain.
Miami is favored. As of publication Miami is 8-1, first of 17 in the Atlantic Coast Conference and No. 1 in the AP poll (week 10). Duke is 7-2. Miami won the last meeting, 742 days ago. Both teams get six days of rest. Duke is on the second game of a road trip, 686 miles from Raleigh. Miami comes 1,141 miles from Notre Dame. Neither team changes time zones.
Against the spread (ATS, meaning whether a team beat the betting margin), Duke is 7-2 over nine graded games and 3-1 on the road. Miami is 6-3 over nine and 3-1 at home. On per-game averages over nine games, Miami gains 517.33 yards and Duke allows 300.5. Duke runs for 190.56 yards per game, but Miami allows only 71.33 rushing yards per game. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Miami 69%. The market says about 84%. That gap is context, not a bet.
Darian Mensah has played all nine of Miami's games. He averages 299.3 passing yards, 3.1 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions per game, for 2,694 yards, 28 touchdowns and 2 picks. Over his last five games he averages 298 passing yards. Walker Eget has also played all nine of Duke's games. He averages 205.4 passing yards, 1.1 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions per game, and 225.6 yards per game over his last five. Miami allows 301.33 net passing yards per game over nine games, so Eget has room to throw.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Duke at +430 (best at betPARX) profits $430 on $100 and breaks even at 18.9%. With the vig (the book's built-in fee) removed, the market reads about 83.7% Miami, 16.3% Duke. The spread evens things out. A 14-point loss loses the bet. Miami -13.5 at -105 (best at FanDuel) needs a win by 14 or more and breaks even at 51.2%. The total, or over-under, is 54.5 combined points: Over -103 at Courtside, Under -110 at Circa. Shopping books for the best price is how you stop paying extra fees.
Expected value is your average result per $100 risked if you made the same bet many times. Duke +13.5 at +100 breaks even at 50%. Miami -13.5 sits at minus $2.83, Duke's moneyline at minus $13.53, the Over at minus $3.76 and the Under at minus $2.31. This edge is thin. The public split shows 55% of DraftKings spread tickets on Duke, and 56% of the Kalshi moneyline money is on Duke.
It needs 50% to break even, and its own no-vig cover read is 50.2%. Bigger is better for an underdog, so +14 at the same price would be even better. Below +13.5 or a worse price, we pass. This is Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play.
Our Duke vs Miami prediction is Miami 34, Duke 24. Mensah moves the ball, Duke's defense bends without breaking, and Miami wins by 10. That keeps Duke inside the 13.5. Those scores add up to 58, over the 54.5 total, but the Over price carries negative expectation, so we leave the total alone. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Miami is the market favorite at -506 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Duke at +471. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Duke vs Miami airs on ABC. The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET from Hard Rock Stadium, with a forecast of 67 degrees, a 12 mph northwest wind and a 0% chance of rain.
The Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes game starts at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026. It is a Week 11 conference game at Hard Rock Stadium, broadcast on ABC.
Miami is the No. 1 team in the country, but we lean Duke +13.5 at even money on Novig because the number, not the logo, is the bet. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 54.5, with the over priced at -106 at Caesars and the under at -106 at Courtside. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Devils (55% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money is also on Devils (96%).
On Kalshi, 56% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Duke Blue Devils (509 trades, $5.4k traded). Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 9, 1:49 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.