@
Fresno State Bulldogs play at Texas State Bobcats in college football on Saturday, November 14, at UFCU Stadium. As of 8:23 AM ET, Texas State are 9.5-point favorites and the total is 59.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean Fresno State Bulldogs on the spread (67% of tickets); Circa money leans Texas State Bobcats (51%).
| Book | BetsFresno State BulldogsTexas State Bobcats | MoneyFresno State BulldogsTexas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Fresno State Bulldogs +9.5 / Texas State Bobcats -9.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Fresno State Bulldogs +9.5 / Texas State Bobcats -9.5) | ||
| BetMGM (Fresno State Bulldogs +10 / Texas State Bobcats -10) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsFresno State BulldogsTexas State Bobcats | MoneyFresno State BulldogsTexas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Fresno State Bulldogs (+295) / Texas State Bobcats (-375)) | ||
| BetMGM (Fresno State Bulldogs (+290) / Texas State Bobcats (-375)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 59.5Under 59.5 | MoneyOver 59.5Under 59.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Fresno State Bulldogs | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 | -9.5 |
| Total 59.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | Fresno State Bulldogs | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +317Bet at Novig → exchange price | -335Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +9.5 +104Bet at Novig → exchange price | -9.5 -111Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 59.5 | O -102Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 8:23 AM ET, the spread is Texas State -9.5 and the total is 59.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Fresno State ML | Texas State ML | Fresno State spread | Texas State spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | +300 | -380 | +9.5 -106 | -9.5 -114 | O 59.5 -111 | U 59.5 -109 |
| Caesars | +285 | -360 | +9.5 -106 | -9.5 -114 | O 59.5 -113 | U 59.5 -107 |
| Courtside | +303 | -364 | +9.5 -108 | -9.5 -112 | O 59.5 -110 | U 59.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | +295 | -375 | +9.5 -108 | -9.5 -112 | O 59.5 -112 | U 59.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 | +9.5 -105 | -9.5 -115 | O 59.5 -110 | U 59.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +280 | -360 | +9.5 +100 | -9.5 -120 | O 59.5 -110 | U 59.5 -110 |
| Fliff | +285 | -380 | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -120 | O 59.5 -120 | U 59.5 -115 |
| Novig | +317 | -335 | +9.5 +104 | -9.5 -111 | O 59.5 -102 | U 59.5 -106 |
| ProphetX | +315 | -335 | +9.5 +104 | -9.5 -112 | O 59.5 -105 | U 59.5 -105 |
| theScore Bet | +290 | -380 | +9.5 -105 | -9.5 -115 | O 59.5 -110 | U 59.5 -110 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Fresno State Bulldogs6th in the Pac-12 ConferenceTexas State Bobcats2nd in the Pac-12 Conference
Brad Jackson (TXST)172/252, 2,147 YDS, 19 TD, 6 INT (9 GP)
Jayden Mandal (FRES)156/251, 1,857 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT (9 GP)Both teams are 5-4 as of publication. Yet the betting market makes the Texas State Bobcats a 77% favorite to beat the Fresno State Bulldogs, by about 9.5 points. That gap between matching records and a lopsided price is the whole story of this Week 11 game. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14 at 4:00 PM ET at UFCU Stadium on CW. The bettor's question is simple. Has the market priced Texas State correctly, or a little too generously?
This is a conference game. Texas State sits 2nd of 8 in the Pac-12 Conference. Fresno State sits 6th of 8. The per-game averages over 9 stored games show why. Texas State gains 517 total yards per game, 265.78 of them rushing. Fresno State gains 347.56. Texas State's soft spot is pass defense, allowing 293 passing yards per game.
Fresno State protects the ball at 0.56 turnovers per game. Both teams have 6 days of rest. Fresno State is on game 2 of a road trip, 1,127 miles from Logan, one time zone east. Texas State came 1,711 miles from Corvallis, crossing two time zones east. Forecast: 67 F, 10 mph wind from the ESE, a 31% chance of rain.
Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson has played all 9 games, averaging 238.6 passing yards, 2.1 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game. Over his last 5 games he is at 258.6 passing and 83.4 rushing yards per game. Fresno State's Jayden Mandal has also played all 9 games: 206.3 passing yards, 1.2 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions per game, and 213.6 passing and 12.2 rushing yards per game over his last 5. Jackson brings the explosion. Mandal throws fewer interceptions per game.
Texas State is. Here are the Fresno State vs Texas State odds at the best price we track. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Fresno State +315 at ProphetX: $100 profits $308.70 after that book's fee. The Fresno State vs Texas State spread, a handicap on the margin, is 9.5. A 10-point loss loses. Texas State -9.5 pays -105 at theScore Bet and needs a 10-point win.
Remove the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads Texas State 76.9%, Fresno State 23.1%. Our rating, an Elo model used only as context, says 64% to 36%. At DraftKings, 98% of tickets and 94% of money sit on Texas State. Against the spread (ATS), Fresno State is 6-3 in 9 graded games, 3-1 as an underdog.
Every price has a break-even, the win rate it needs to pay off long term. Expected value is the average result per $100 risked if the market's no-vig read holds. Texas State -9.5 is minus $1.06. The Over is minus $1.46, the Under minus $1.44. The best spot is Fresno State +9.5 at +106. It needs 48.5%. If you find +10 at the same price, take it, since a 10-point loss would push (refund).
This is a margin bet, separate from the moneyline. Over 9 games, Fresno State's defense allows 0.01 predicted points added per play (PPA, the average scoring value of each play) versus 0.12 for Texas State, and Mandal gets a pass defense allowing 293 yards per game.
Texas State's ground game should win it, but we see Fresno State staying within one score. Projection: Texas State 34, Fresno State 27. That adds to 61 points, over the 59.5 total, though neither side of the total pays enough to bet. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Texas State is the market favorite at -335 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Fresno State at +317. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats game airs on CW. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET at UFCU Stadium, a Week 11 conference game.
Fresno State vs Texas State kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET at UFCU Stadium. The broadcast is on CW. The forecast calls for 67 F, a 10 mph wind from the ESE and a 31% chance of precipitation.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Texas State Bobcats College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 59.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at -106 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Bobcats (98% of DraftKings tickets on the moneyline), DraftKings money is also on Bobcats (94%).
On Kalshi, 60% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Texas State Bobcats (117 trades, $886 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 61% of the money traded on the spread is on Fresno State Bulldogs (101 trades, $5.4k traded). Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 12, 5:25 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.