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Texas Tech Red Raiders play at Baylor Bears in college football on Saturday, November 21, at McLane Stadium. As of 7:54 AM ET, Texas Tech are the moneyline favorite at -112 and the total is 55.5. The Desk leans Texas Tech ML. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · college football betting splits
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a market on this game that we can match, so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
| Market | Texas Tech Red Raiders | Baylor Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -112Bet at DraftKings → | +100Bet at Kalshi → exchange price |
DJ Lagway (BAY)145/270, 1,900 YDS, 15 TD, 4 INT (7 GP)
Will Hammond (TTU)139/205, 1,561 YDS, 6 TD, 6 INT (7 GP)The No. 10 team in the country walks into McLane Stadium, and the betting market barely favors it. As of November 11, Texas Tech is 8-1 and Baylor is 6-3, yet their prices sit four cents apart. When a gap that wide on paper looks that narrow on the board, a bettor should ask why. That is the real question in Texas Tech vs Baylor, a Week 12 Big 12 game kicking off Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are No. 10 in the AP Top 25 (week 11 poll). The Baylor Bears are unranked and sit 6th of 16 in the Big 12. Our data lists no earlier meeting between them this season. Elo, a rating that rises with wins and falls with losses based on opponent strength, has Texas Tech at 1824 and Baylor at 1697. That is a real gap.
PPA, short for predicted points added, measures how much each play moves a team toward scoring. Over nine games, Texas Tech's offense adds 0.19 per play to Baylor's 0.14. On defense, lower is better, and Baylor's -0.07 beats Texas Tech's 0.01. So Texas Tech moves the ball better, while Baylor stops it better. Last season's final SP+ ratings (Texas Tech 27.6, Baylor 1.4) are only a preseason starting point, not this year's form.
Both quarterbacks have played seven of their team's nine games, so a per-game comparison is fair. Baylor's DJ Lagway averages 271.4 passing yards, 2.1 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions per game over seven games, on 20.7 completions in 38.6 attempts. Texas Tech's Will Hammond averages 223 yards, 0.9 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions per game over seven games, on 19.9 completions in 29.3 attempts. Lagway carries a heavier passing load. Hammond runs a more measured attack.
Texas Tech, barely. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Texas Tech at -112 (best at DraftKings) means a $100 bet profits $89.29 if it wins and loses $100 if it does not. To break even long term, that bet has to win 52.8% of the time. Those two break-evens add up to more than 100%. The extra is the vig, the sportsbook's built-in cut. No spread prices are posted in the books we track, and the 55.5 total has no Over or Under price, so we will not grade either.
Strip out the vig and the market makes Texas Tech about 50.4% and Baylor about 49.6% to win. That is the market's estimate with the book's cut removed, not a certainty. Expected value is what a bet earns on average if you made it many times. Here is the honest math. Texas Tech needs 52.8% and the market's fair read is 50.4%. Baylor needs 51.9% against 49.6%. Neither side clears its break-even on the market's own numbers, so any bet is an opinion that the market is off.
Ours is that Texas Tech is underpriced. The Elo gap, the stronger offensive PPA and the No. 10 ranking all point the same way. Baylor's defense and home field explain why the price is close. They do not, in our read, make this a coin flip. The bet only pays off over time if Texas Tech wins more than 52.8% of the time. Shop hard. A worse price than -112 raises that bar.
We like the Texas Tech Red Raiders moneyline at -112 at DraftKings. A $100 bet profits $89.29 if Texas Tech wins and loses $100 if it does not. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, a matchup opinion, and not an official play.
Baylor's defense keeps this tight early, and Lagway's arm keeps the Bears in range. Texas Tech's offense eventually wins the possession battle, and the stronger team on paper closes it out. Our projection: Texas Tech 30, Baylor 26. That adds to 56 points, a hair over the 55.5 total, but with no Over or Under price posted we are not grading the total. In Baylor vs Texas Tech, the edge is in the read, not the number. That is the Desk's take on this price; the documented free daily play sits right below if you want to see how we size a full card.
Texas Tech is the market favorite at -112 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Baylor at +100. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Texas Tech is a slight favorite at -112 on the moneyline at DraftKings, with Baylor at -108. With the sportsbook's cut removed, the market puts Texas Tech near 50.4% and Baylor near 49.6%, which is essentially a coin flip.
Texas Tech at Baylor kicks off Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 12:00 AM Eastern time. The Week 12 game is played at McLane Stadium, Baylor's home field.
The best moneyline prices we track are Texas Tech -112 and Baylor -108, both at DraftKings. A $100 bet on Texas Tech profits $89.29 if it wins. A $100 bet on Baylor profits $92.59 if it wins. The total is listed at 55.5.
No point spread prices are posted at the regulated sportsbooks we track for this game right now. The moneyline is available, with Texas Tech at -112 and Baylor at -108 at DraftKings.
A top-10 Texas Tech is priced like a coin flip at McLane Stadium, and we lean the Red Raiders on the moneyline at -112 on DraftKings. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 55.5. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.