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Auburn Tigers play at Mississippi State Bulldogs in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Davis Wade Stadium. As of 6:49 AM ET, Auburn are 2.5-point favorites and the total is 50.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: Auburn Tigers (56% of DraftKings tickets, 60% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsAuburn Tigers -2.5Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 | MoneyAuburn Tigers -2.5Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsAuburn TigersMississippi State Bulldogs | MoneyAuburn TigersMississippi State Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Auburn Tigers (-142) / Mississippi State Bulldogs (+120)) | ||
| BetMGM (Auburn Tigers (-145) / Mississippi State Bulldogs (+120)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 49.5 / Under 49.5) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 50.5 / Under 50.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Auburn Tigers | Mississippi State Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 | +2.5 |
| Total 49.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Auburn Tigers | Mississippi State Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -129betPARX | +133Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -2.5 -109betPARX | +2.5 +106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 50.5 | O -106Bet at Novig → exchange price | U +100Bet at Kalshi → exchange price |
As of 6:49 AM ET, the spread is Auburn -2.5 and the total is 50.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Auburn ML | Mississippi State ML | Auburn spread | Mississippi State spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -129 | +105 | -2.5 -109 | +2.5 -110 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -109 |
| bet365 | -137 | +117 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -110 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -108 |
| betPARX | -129 | +105 | -2.5 -109 | +2.5 -110 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -109 |
| BetRivers | -129 | +105 | -2.5 -110 | +2.5 -112 | O 50.5 -113 | U 50.5 -110 |
| Caesars | -143 | +121 | -2.5 -121 | +2.5 +101 | O 50.5 -112 | U 50.5 -112 |
| Courtside | -139 | +122 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | O 50.5 -108 | U 50.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | -142 | +120 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 | -2.5 -120 | +2.5 +100 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -110 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Auburn Tigers12th in the Southeastern ConferenceMississippi State Bulldogs13th in the Southeastern Conference
Kamario Taylor (MSST)104/159, 1,460 YDS, 17 TD, 4 INT (6 GP)
Byrum Brown (AUB)182/281, 1,740 YDS, 11 TD, 7 INT (9 GP)Six books cut Mississippi State from a 3.5-point home underdog to 2.5 within five minutes. Yet 82% of BetMGM spread tickets sit on Auburn. That split between the line and the crowd is why this Saturday noon kickoff deserves a closer look.
The Auburn Tigers (5-4) visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5) in Week 11 at Davis Wade Stadium, Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN2. Auburn sits 12th of 16 in the Southeastern Conference. Mississippi State sits 13th. Auburn is the favorite. Against the spread (ATS, meaning whether a team beats the betting margin, not just the scoreboard), Auburn is 2-7 over 9 graded games and 1-2 on the road.
Mississippi State is 4-5 ATS over 9 games but only 1-4 as an underdog. Both teams had 6 days of rest. Auburn traveled 202 miles, and this is game two of a home stand for the Bulldogs. The forecast is 51 F, a 5 mph north wind and 0% chance of rain, so the weather should not be a factor.
Kamario Taylor has averaged 243.3 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game over 6 games played. Byrum Brown has averaged 193.3 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game over 9 games played. Brown also runs: 74 rush yards per game over his last 5. One caution matters here. AJ Swann was Mississippi State's quarterback of record last game, so confirm who starts before you bet anything tied to Taylor.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Books build in a fee called the vig. Remove it and the market reads about 56.8% Auburn, 43.2% Mississippi State. The spread is the betting margin. Auburn -2.5 at -112 (ProphetX) needs a win by 3 or more, and a 2-point win loses. Three books dropped that total to 49.5, so shop around. Line shopping, meaning comparing books for the best price, is extra value you keep.
Expected value is your average result per $100 risked if you could replay this bet many times. Every side here is negative or flat against the market's no-vig read. Our fair price is where the gap narrows. We make Mississippi State about +131 (43.4%) against a 43.5% break-even, a hair short. Our rating (an Elo model, context only) has Mississippi State 51% to Auburn 49%.
This is not a value edge. Size it small or pass.
Our mississippi state vs auburn prediction: Mississippi State 27, Auburn 24. That adds to 51, a half point over the 50.5 total, so we have no total play either. Auburn's offense averages 367.89 yards per game, Mississippi State's 395.78, and both defenses have holes worth testing. That is our read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Auburn is the market favorite at -129 (best price at betPARX) on the moneyline, with Mississippi State at +133. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Auburn vs Mississippi State airs on ESPN2. The game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET from Davis Wade Stadium, home of the Mississippi State Bulldogs, in a Week 11 Southeastern Conference matchup.
Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern time on ESPN2. The forecast at Davis Wade Stadium is 51 F with a 5 mph north wind and a 0% chance of precipitation.
Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 50.5, with the over priced at -106 at Novig and the under at +100 at Kalshi. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Tigers (85% of BetMGM tickets on the spread), Circa money is also on Tigers (59%).
Several books (6) moved the spread on home to 2.5 together.
On Kalshi, 85% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Auburn Tigers (480 trades, $8.2k traded). Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 10, 9:08 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.