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Wake Forest Demon Deacons play at SMU Mustangs in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. As of 6:04 AM ET, SMU are 1.5-point favorites and the total is 60.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Public is on Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread (55% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans SMU Mustangs (88%).
| Book | BetsWake Forest Demon DeaconsSMU Mustangs | MoneyWake Forest Demon DeaconsSMU Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1.5 / SMU Mustangs -1.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1.5 / SMU Mustangs -1.5) | ||
| BetMGM (Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1 / SMU Mustangs -1) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsWake Forest Demon Deacons (-105)SMU Mustangs (-115) | MoneyWake Forest Demon Deacons (-105)SMU Mustangs (-115) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOverUnder | MoneyOverUnder |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Over 60.5 / Under 60.5) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Over 59.5 / Under 59.5) | ||
| BetMGM (Over 60.5 / Under 60.5) | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | SMU Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 | -1.5 |
| Total 59.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | SMU Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +104Bet at Novig → exchange price | -108Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +1.5 -108Bet at Bally Bet → | -1.5 +102Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 60.5 | O -102Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 6:04 AM ET, the spread is SMU -1.5 and the total is 60.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Wake Forest ML | SMU ML | Wake Forest spread | SMU spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -103 | -122 | +1.5 -108 | -1.5 -112 | O 60.5 -112 | U 60.5 -108 |
| bet365 | -103 | -117 | +1.5 -111 | -1.5 -109 | O 60.5 -110 | U 60.5 -110 |
| betPARX | -103 | -122 | +1.5 -108 | -1.5 -112 | O 60.5 -112 | U 60.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -122 | +1.5 -109 | -1.5 -114 | O 60.5 -114 | U 60.5 -109 |
| Courtside | -103 | -113 | +1.5 -115 | -1.5 -105 | O 60.5 -108 | U 60.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 | +1.5 -115 | -1.5 -105 | O 60.5 -110 | U 60.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -113 | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -110 | O 60.5 -110 | U 60.5 -110 |
| Fliff | -105 | -120 | +1.5 -120 | -1.5 -115 | O 60.5 -120 | U 60.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -110 | O 60.5 -110 | U 60.5 -110 |
| Novig | +104 | -108 | +1.5 -111 | -1.5 +102 | O 60.5 -102 | U 60.5 -104 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Kevin Jennings (SMU)209/283, 2,764 YDS, 25 TD, 6 INT (9 GP)
Gio Lopez (WAKE)153/228, 2,176 YDS, 18 TD, 1 INT (8 GP)The No. 11 team in the AP poll is a road underdog at the No. 25 team, and the market prices this game about as close to a coin flip as football gets. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons visit the SMU Mustangs with two offenses that each average more than 475 yards per game, and that is where we went hunting. Kickoff is Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, on ESPN, Disney+ and ERADM.
Barely SMU. As of publication, Wake Forest is 8-1 and SMU is 7-2, with SMU 4th of 17 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. This is a Week 11 conference game. The last meeting came 385 days ago, and SMU lost it. SMU is 3-4-2 ATS in 9 games and 0-2-1 on the road.
Over-under records (whether games landed above or below the posted total) sit near even: Wake Forest 5-4 and SMU 4-5, each over 9 games. Our rating, an Elo model built from past results, gives SMU 52% and Wake Forest 48%. That is context, not a bet. Wake Forest has 6 days of rest after traveling 970 miles and crossing one time zone west. SMU has 7 days of rest in game 2 of a home stand.
Kevin Jennings has played all 9 SMU games, averaging 307.1 passing yards, 2.8 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game. Over his last five games that dips to 267.2 passing yards per game. Gio Lopez has played 8 of Wake Forest's 9 games, averaging 272 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns and 0.1 interceptions per game, plus 45.6 rushing yards per game over his last five.
One wrinkle: Wake Forest's quarterback of record last game was Steele Pizzella, a change from the game before, so watch who starts. As teams, per-game averages over 9 games show Wake Forest gaining 487.67 yards and allowing 310, and SMU gaining 475.78 and allowing 319.78. PPA (predicted points added per play, roughly how many points an average snap is worth) favors Wake Forest: 0.4 on offense and -0.05 on defense (lower is better there) against SMU's 0.28 and 0.09.
Every best price sits at Novig, which shows why shopping books matters. The spread is a bet on the margin: SMU -1.5 at +106 wins only if SMU wins by 2 or more, while Wake Forest +1.5 at -108 wins if Wake Forest wins or loses by 1. A half point means no push (a tie that refunds your stake).
The total is combined points: Over 60.5 at -104, Under 60.5 at +102. SMU's spread moved from +1.5 to -0.5 at four books within five minutes, a line move worth noting. The public split: 62% of DraftKings spread tickets and 58% of the money are on Wake Forest, and on Kalshi 60% of moneyline money traded is on Wake Forest.
The vig is the book's built-in fee. Remove it and you get the no-vig number, the market's own probability with the fee stripped out. Break-even is how often a bet must win to avoid losing money. Expected value is the average result per bet over many tries. SMU -104 needs 51% against 50.7%, minus $0.47. Wake Forest +1.5 is minus $0.99. SMU -1.5 is barely positive at plus $0.10. That is thin, an average of 35 cents. The matchup supports it: two offenses averaging 475-plus yards per game, and Wake Forest turning it over only 0.33 times per game. The risk is a 15 mph wind.
It must win 51% of the time to break even. Shop hard: for an Over, a lower total at the same price is better, and anything worse than -104 or a higher total like 61.5 erases this sliver.
SMU 34, Wake Forest 31. That adds to 65 points, over the 60.5 total. Both quarterbacks keep moving the ball, the wind trims a few deep shots, and the scoreboard still climbs. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
SMU is the market favorite at -108 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Wake Forest at +104. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Wake Forest vs SMU airs on ESPN, Disney+ and ERADM. The game kicks off Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM ET from Gerald J. Ford Stadium, home of the SMU Mustangs.
SMU is a slight favorite. The best prices show SMU at -104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the spread, with Wake Forest at +102 and +1.5. With the vig removed, the market reads it about 51% SMU and 49% Wake Forest.
Kickoff is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern time at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The broadcast is on ESPN, Disney+ and ERADM. The forecast calls for 59 degrees, 15 mph wind and a 0% chance of precipitation.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 60.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at -104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Deacons (64% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money is also on Deacons (59%).
The spread has held at Mustangs -1.5 since it opened; the total has held at 60.5; several books (4) moved the spread on home to -0.5 together.
On Kalshi, 62% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1236 trades, $45k traded). On Polymarket, 65% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Wake Forest Demon Deacons (71 trades, $2.1k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On ProphetX, 61% of the money traded on the moneyline is on SMU Mustangs (47 trades, $3.9k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 12, 3:44 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.