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SMU Mustangs play at Notre Dame Fighting Irish in college football on Saturday, November 21, at Notre Dame Stadium. As of 8:36 AM ET, Notre Dame are 16.5-point favorites and the total is 57.5. Prices come from 4 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Notre Dame ML.
Prices updated · from 4 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a market on this game that we can match, so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
| Market | SMU Mustangs | Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +575Bet at DraftKings → | -710Bet at FanDuel → |
| Spread | +16.5 -110Bet at DraftKings → | -16.5 -110Bet at DraftKings → |
| Total 57.5 | O -110Bet at DraftKings → | U -110Bet at DraftKings → |
As of 8:36 AM ET, the spread is Notre Dame -16.5 and the total is 57.5, with 4 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | SMU ML | Notre Dame ML | SMU spread | Notre Dame spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +575 | -850 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 57.5 -110 | U 57.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +575 | -850 | +16.5 -110 | -16.5 -110 | O 57.5 -110 | U 57.5 -110 |
| Fliff | +540 | -850 | +16.5 -115 | -16.5 -115 | – | – |
| FanDuel | +520 | -710 | – | – | – | – |
Prices from 4 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
CJ Carr (ND)177/262, 2,168 YDS, 21 TD, 1 INT (9 GP)
Kevin Jennings (SMU)209/283, 2,764 YDS, 25 TD, 6 INT (9 GP)Backing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to simply win costs $710 to make $100. Backing the SMU Mustangs gets you 16.5 points. That gap is the whole story of Notre Dame vs SMU. No. 25 SMU visits No. 3 Notre Dame (AP Top 25, week 11) at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, November 21 at 7:30 PM ET on NBC, in Week 12 of the 2026 season. The market is leaning into the Irish. Notre Dame's price to win the championship moved from 16.7% to 20.5% implied probability over eight days.
As of November 12, SMU is 7-2 and sits 4th of 17 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Notre Dame is 8-1. Elo is a rating that scores team strength from results, and it has Notre Dame at 2078 and SMU at 1783. That is a wide gap. PPA (predicted points added) measures how many points each play adds on average.
Over nine games, Notre Dame's offense adds 0.35 per play, and its defense allows -0.01, which means opponents gain basically nothing per snap. SMU's offense sits at 0.28 and its defense allows 0.09 over nine games. Last season's final SP+ ratings (a preseason starting point, not this year's form) were 24.4 for Notre Dame and 13.4 for SMU.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has played all nine games. He is 209 of 283 for 2,764 yards, 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, which works out to 307.1 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. Notre Dame's CJ Carr has also played all nine games. He is 177 of 262 for 2,168 yards, 21 touchdowns and just 1 interception, or 240.9 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Jennings throws more per game. Carr has thrown 0.1 interceptions per game to Jennings' 0.7. Against a defense allowing -0.01 per play, those SMU mistakes matter.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. SMU is +575 at DraftKings: $100 risked profits $575 if SMU wins. Notre Dame is -710 at FanDuel: $100 risked profits $14.08 if the Irish win. Those are the best prices across the books we track. Shopping matters most on a price this steep.
The spread handicaps the margin. SMU +16.5 at -110 (DraftKings) wins if SMU wins outright or loses by 16 or fewer. A 17-point loss loses. Notre Dame -16.5 at -110 (DraftKings) wins only by 17 or more. The total, a bet on combined points, sits at 57.5, but no Over or Under price is posted, so we do not grade it.
Books build in a fee called the vig. With it removed, the market makes Notre Dame about 88% to win and SMU about 12%. SMU at +575 needs to win 14.8% of the time to break even. Expected value means your average result over many bets, and here it is negative. Notre Dame at -710 needs 87.7%. So this edge comes from price shopping, not a big mispricing. The spread has no no-vig read in our data, so we pass on it.
Notre Dame moneyline at -710 at FanDuel. It is the only price in the block with positive expectation against the market's own read. Any worse price erases the edge, so only take this number or better.
Notre Dame controls this one. Carr protects the ball, the Irish defense smothers per-play gains, and Jennings has to keep throwing to keep pace. We project Notre Dame 34, SMU 20. That is 54 total points, under the 57.5 total. The 14-point margin falls short of 16.5, which is why we stay off the spread. That is our read on SMU vs Notre Dame. The Desk's documented free daily play sits right below if you want to see how we handle today's board.
Notre Dame is the market favorite at -710 (best price at FanDuel) on the moneyline, with SMU at +575. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
SMU vs Notre Dame airs on NBC. Kickoff is Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium. This is a Week 12 game in the 2026 college football regular season.
Notre Dame is the favorite. The best moneyline prices are Notre Dame -710 at FanDuel and SMU +575 at DraftKings. With the vig removed, the market makes Notre Dame about 88% to win and SMU about 12%. The spread is Notre Dame -16.5.
The game kicks off Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 7:30 PM Eastern time at Notre Dame Stadium. The broadcast is on NBC.
Notre Dame is favored by 16.5 points. SMU +16.5 and Notre Dame -16.5 are both priced at -110 at DraftKings. Each requires a 52.4% win rate to break even, and there is no push at a half point.
A ranked SMU passing attack visits Notre Dame Stadium facing a 16.5-point spread and one of the steepest moneylines of Week 12. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 57.5, with the over priced at -110 at DraftKings and the under at -110 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
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