Rice vs Temple Prediction & Odds (Nov 19)

Temple vs Rice Prediction: The Bottom of the American

Two teams with three combined wins, yet the ratings say they are not close. The weekly Elo rating, a power number that rises and falls with results, puts a 206-point gap between these two sets of Owls. The Rice Owls visit the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday, November 19, at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. No sportsbook has posted odds yet. So the job for a bettor is simple. Figure out what this game should cost before the market tells you.

Who Is Favored to Win Rice vs Temple?

This is Week 12 of the regular season. As of November 8, Rice is 1-8 and 14th of 14 in the American Conference. Temple is 2-7 and 13th of 14. No earlier meeting between them appears in our data this season, so there is no head-to-head result to lean on. With no odds posted, there is no official favorite yet. The context leans one way, though. Temple's Elo sits at 1293 and Rice's at 1087. Last season's final SP+ rating had Temple at -5.1 and Rice at -14.8 for 2025.

SP+ is a power rating where negative means below average. Treat that as a preseason starting point, not this year's form. Then there is PPA, or predicted points added per play. It estimates how much each snap moves a team's expected scoring. Over nine games, Temple's offense adds 0.14 per play and Rice's adds 0.04. On defense, where lower is better, Temple allows 0.17 and Rice allows 0.18. The defenses look nearly identical. The offenses do not.

Players to Watch

Temple quarterback Ajani Sheppard has played 8 of his team's 9 games. Over those eight games he is 85 of 140 for 1,245 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That works out to 155.6 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 0.4 interceptions per game. Rice's Jacurri Brown has also played 8 of his team's 9 games.

Over those eight games he is 40 of 83 for 478 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, or 59.8 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. Same games played, so the per-game comparison is fair. Temple's passing game produces roughly two and a half times the yards per game. That lines up with the PPA gap on offense.

What Is the Rice vs Temple Spread?

There isn't one yet. When Rice vs Temple odds post, you will see three main bets. The spread is a points handicap. The favorite must win by more than the number, and the underdog can lose by less than it and still cash. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright, no points involved. A minus price shows what you risk to win $100. A plus price shows your profit on $100 risked. Every price also carries the vig, the sportsbook's fee baked into the odds. Different books will post different numbers. Checking several before you bet is the cheapest edge in the game.

Where the Value Is

Expected value is the average result per $100 risked if you made the same bet many times. A positive number means the price pays more than the outcome is worth. To measure it, we remove the vig from the posted prices. That gives the market-implied probability, what the market thinks once its fee is stripped out. We then compare that to our own read.

With no prices posted, we cannot run that math honestly, and we won't fake it. What we can say is that every data point in our brief favors Temple. The Elo gap, the offensive PPA and the quarterback per-game numbers all point the same way. Those are context, not an edge. If the market prices Temple steeply, the value could vanish.

The Pick

We lean Temple on the moneyline. This is a matchup lean based on the data, not a value claim, because no price exists yet to test. When odds post, compare every book and take the best Temple price you can find. If the price looks too steep against your own read, passing is a fine decision. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official play.

The Prediction

Rice's defense allows about what Temple's does per play, so this turns on who can move the ball. Temple can, and Sheppard's 155.6 yards per game over eight games is the clearest sign. We project Temple 27, Rice 17. That is our full Rice vs Temple prediction until a number posts. The Desk also posts a documented free play each day, and it sits right below if you want to see how we handle a game that already has a price.