vs
Fulham host Newcastle United in the Premier League on Saturday, November 7, at Craven Cottage. As of 4:27 PM ET, Fulham are the moneyline favorite at +117 and the total is 2.5. Prices come from 12 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated (9 min ago) · from 12 sportsbooks · Premier League betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Novig does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Polymarket US does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Fanatics Markets does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
| Fulham win | Draw | Newcastle United win |
|---|---|---|
| +117Bet at Bally Bet → | +260Bet at FanDuel → | +240Bet at Courtside → |
| Total goals 2.5: O -143 (betPARX) · U +127 (Courtside) | ||
As of 4:27 PM ET, Fulham +117 on the moneyline and the total is 2.5, with 12 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Newcastle ML | Fulham ML | Newcastle spread | Fulham spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | +240 | +105 | +1.5 -410 | -1.5 +260 | O 2.5 -149 | U 2.5 +127 |
| Bally Bet | +225 | +117 | – | – | O 2.5 -143 | U 2.5 +114 |
| BetMGM | +190 | +105 | – | – | O 2.5 -160 | U 2.5 +115 |
| betPARX | +215 | +114 | – | – | O 2.5 -143 | U 2.5 +114 |
| BetRivers | +225 | +117 | – | – | O 2.5 -143 | U 2.5 +114 |
| Caesars | +215 | +112 | – | – | – | – |
| DraftKings | +220 | +115 | – | – | – | – |
| Fanatics | +210 | +115 | – | – | – | – |
| FanDuel | +220 | +110 | – | – | – | – |
| Hard Rock Bet | +225 | +115 | – | – | – | – |
Prices from 12 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated (9 min ago). Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
FulhamDLWWLNewcastle UnitedLWLLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
The market makes Fulham the favorite at Craven Cottage and still gives them only a 45% chance to win. Flip that around, and a Fulham ticket loses 55% of the time. That gap is the heart of soccer betting, and this Newcastle United at Fulham match on November 7 is a clean place to learn it. We checked every price against our own numbers. Only one side even comes close to fair.
Fulham are the home favorite. Their last five results, newest first, read draw, loss, win, win, loss. That is two wins, one draw and two losses, or 7 points out of a possible 15. Newcastle have gone loss, win, loss, loss, win. That is two wins and three losses for 6 points. Neither club is rolling, and neither is collapsing. The current Premier League table is not in our data, so we will not guess where either side sits. The form tells a simple story: two inconsistent teams, one point apart over five matches, with Fulham at home.
In the NFL or NBA, a moneyline (a straight bet on who wins, no point spread) has two outcomes. Soccer has three. You can bet Fulham to win, Newcastle to win or a draw, and the bet is settled on 90 minutes. If the match ends level, both win bets lose. Fulham at +122 means a $100 bet profits $122. Newcastle at +228 profits $228 on $100. The draw at +270 profits $270. That third outcome is why even favorites often pay plus money (more than you risk) in soccer. Every time you back a side, you are betting against the other team and the draw.
Convert those to implied probability (the win chance a price suggests) and you get roughly 45%, 27% and 30.5%. That adds to about 102.5%. The extra 2.5% is the vig, the sportsbook's built-in cut. Strip it out, and the market's no-vig read is Fulham 45%, draw 26%, Newcastle 29%. A 2.5% margin is thin, and it is thin because we shopped. Line shopping (comparing the same bet across books) is the cheapest edge in betting. On goals, the total is 2.5. Over (three or more goals) is -148 at betPARX, meaning you risk $148 to win $100. Under (two or fewer) is +127 at Courtside. The market expects goals.
Expected value, or EV, is what a bet wins or loses on average if you could place it thousands of times. A bet has positive EV when the book pays more than the fair price. That is short. Also short. Still short, but only by a hair. No side here is a true edge today. Newcastle is the only one close enough that a slightly better number flips it. We have no fair price on the total, so we are not forcing a play there.
The match is at Craven Cottage in London, Fulham's home ground. We have no weather information for this one, so we are not building anything around it.
If a book reaches that number before kickoff, this becomes a small positive-EV bet. If nobody does, passing is a perfectly good decision. Remember the draw: a 1-1 finish loses this ticket just like a Fulham win does. This is Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play.
Two streaky teams, a market leaning toward goals and a road side priced close to fair. We see Newcastle nicking it, Fulham 1, Newcastle 2. That is our Fulham vs Newcastle prediction, and the bet behind it lives or dies on the number, not the badge. That is the read on this board; the Desk's free daily play sits right below if you want to see how we handle the next one.
Fulham is the slight market favorite at +117 (best price at Bally Bet) on the moneyline, with Newcastle United at +240. The draw is priced at +260. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The match is set for November 7, 2026, at Craven Cottage in London. A kickoff time is not included in our data, so check the Premier League's official schedule or your sportsbook's listing before you place a bet.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · FanDuel betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.