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These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out.
| Hull City win | Draw | Ipswich Town win |
|---|---|---|
| +185Bet at ReBet → | +250Bet at theScore Bet → | +155Bet at BetMGM → |
| Total goals 2.5: O -104 (Fanatics Markets) · U -102 (Courtside) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Hull CityDLDLDIpswich TownDLWLL| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
Hull City have not won any of their last five. Ipswich Town have won once. That is one victory across ten matches, and the market still cannot separate them: Hull City +160, Ipswich Town +170, draw +250. Nine cents on the dollar between the two sides. When a market is that flat, the edge is not in picking the better team. It is in finding which of the three prices the books are charging the least for.
Hull City host at the MKM Stadium on a run reading draw, loss, draw, loss, draw (newest first). Three draws in five. That is a side that stays close and does not finish. Ipswich Town arrive on draw, loss, win, loss, loss. One win, three defeats. Our brief does not include current Premier League table positions, so we will not guess at them. What we have is recent results and a price, and both say the same thing: two teams scrapping, with Hull a shade shorter only because they are at home.
If you come from football or basketball, this part bites people. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. You bet home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes (stoppage time counts, there is no overtime in league play). The draw is a real third outcome you can bet. Here is the key: if this finishes 1-1, the Hull City ticket and the Ipswich Town ticket both lose. Not a push, not a refund. So backing Hull City at +160 (risk $100 to win $160) means beating one team and the tie.
Best prices across the books we track: Hull City +160 at FanDuel, draw +250 at FanDuel, Ipswich Town +170 at Bally Bet. Shopping matters more than people admit. Taking Ipswich at +150 elsewhere instead of +170 costs you $20 on every winning $100 ticket, every time. On the goals market the line is 2.5: Over -117 at Bally Bet (risk $117 to win $100), Under -103 at Courtside. That is nearly a coin flip, which fits two teams that neither score freely nor win.
Strip the house margin out and the fair numbers are Hull City 37%, draw 28%, Ipswich Town 36%. Expected value is simply the long-run average of a bet. That is close to a scratch, the cheapest number on the board. Now add form. Hull drew three of five. Across both clubs, four of the last ten results finished level. That is where we are looking.
The MKM Stadium in Hull, with Hull City as the home side. Our brief carries no weather or lineup information, and we do not invent it. Treat home field as what it already is: the reason a winless-in-five Hull team is the slightly shorter price.
Desk lean is the draw at +250, best price at FanDuel. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official documented play. Keep the size modest, because +250 means you lose this ticket roughly seven times in ten and make your money on the three. And shop it.
Two teams allergic to winning, a flat market, and a home side that has drawn three of its last five. We project 1-1. The Over 2.5 at -117 would live or die on one late goal, which is exactly why we would rather be on the result than the goals here. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Ipswich Town is the slight market favorite at +155 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with Hull City at +185. The draw is priced at +250. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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