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These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out.
| Aston Villa win | Draw | Fulham win |
|---|---|---|
| +120Bet at DraftKings → | +260Bet at Bally Bet → | +240Bet at FanDuel → |
| Total goals 2.5: O -125 (Courtside) · U +106 (Courtside) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Aston VillaDWWWWFulhamDWWLD| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
Our rating gives Aston Villa a 66% chance to win this game. The betting market says 49%. When a model and a market split by 17 points, you slow down and check every price. One catch: our rating ignores the draw, and in soccer the draw changes everything.
Villa sit 10th of 20 in the Premier League with 11 points from 8 matches and a -3 goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed). Fulham sit 15th with 8 points and a -2 goal difference. Both clubs have 30 games left. Villa's last five results, newest first: draw, win, win, win, win. Fulham's: draw, win, win, loss, draw. Per game this season (8 stored games), Fulham average 14.38 shots and 58% possession. Villa average 11.38 shots and allow 17.17. Villa's last three matches look sharper: 13.33 shots per match against 12.67 faced. The last meeting, 189 days ago, went against Villa.
A moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. In soccer it is three-way: Villa win, Fulham win, or a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the match ends level, both win bets lose and only the draw ticket cashes. That is why a home favorite can sit near even money. A minus price shows what you risk to win $100, so Villa at -104 means risking $104 to win $100. A plus price shows your profit on a $100 bet, so the draw at +280 pays $280.
Villa are favored. The best Aston Villa odds we found across the regulated US books we track: -104 at Bally Bet. The draw: +280 at Fanatics. The best Fulham odds: +300 at Kalshi. Remove the vig (the book's built-in commission) and the market reads Villa 49%, draw 25%, Fulham 26%.
The total, a bet on combined goals, has Over 2.5 (three or more goals) at -141 at Bally Bet and Under 2.5 at +120 at Courtside. Fulham are 3-5 to the over-under this season (8 games). Villa are 4-4 (8 games). Against the spread (soccer's handicap line), Villa are 0-3 as a favorite and 4-1 as an underdog. Tiny samples. Notice each best price lives at a different book. That is why we shop.
Expected value (EV) is what a bet wins or loses on average if you made it many times. Fulham is where it flips. Kalshi's +300 only needs 25% to break even. Thin, but positive, and it exists only at the best number.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 4:00 PM ET at Villa Park in Birmingham, streaming on Peacock. The forecast is 46 F with a 2 mph wind from the SSW, so weather is a non-factor. Both clubs have 6 days of rest. Fulham are on game 2 of a road trip after a 17-mile hop from Coventry, with no time-zone change. Villa are on game 3 of a home stand.
Fulham to win, +300 at Kalshi. Three-way moneyline, 90 minutes only. A draw loses this ticket. Keep the stake modest, because the market sees this landing about one time in four.
Villa are the likelier winner, and we won't pretend otherwise. This is a price bet. Fulham carry more of the ball and take more shots per game, and Villa allow 17.17 shots a game. Our Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction: Fulham 2, Aston Villa 1. If you play it, play +300, not less. That is our read on this number, and the Desk's free daily play sits right below if you want the next step.
Aston Villa is the slight market favorite at +120 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Fulham at +240. The draw is priced at +260. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Aston Villa are the favorite. The best price we found is -104 at Bally Bet, with Fulham at +300 at Kalshi and the draw at +280 at Fanatics. The market's no-vig read is Villa 49%, draw 25%, Fulham 26%.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 4:00 PM ET at Villa Park in Birmingham, streaming on Peacock. Both clubs come in on 6 days of rest, and the forecast calls for 46 F with a light 2 mph wind.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.