vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Coventry City win | Draw | Sunderland win |
|---|---|---|
| +210Bet at FanDuel → | +240Bet at Bally Bet → | +141Bet at ReBet → |
| Total goals 2.5: O +102 (Courtside) · U -114 (Bally Bet) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Coventry CityDLWWLSunderlandDDDLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
Nineteenth place hosts twentieth place, and the road team is the favorite. Sunderland sits last in the Premier League with 5 points from 8 matches, yet you pay a shorter price on them (+135) than on Coventry City at home (+220). Both clubs are in the relegation zone with 30 games left. One of them walks out of this building feeling slightly less doomed. The market has already told you which one it expects. Our read is not so sure.
Sunderland is favored. Coventry City, promoted this season, is 19th with 6 points from 8 matches and a goal difference of minus 9, scoring 0.75 and conceding 1.88 per league match over 8. League form reads LLWWL. Per-game averages over 8 stored games: 10.63 shots, 3.13 on target, 37.31 percent possession, and 15.83 shots allowed. Coventry defends deep and counters. Sunderland is 20th, 5 points, minus 8, 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded per match over 10. Its league form is DLLLL. Across all competitions the last five read DDDLW. Per-game averages over 8 stored games: 12 shots, 4 on target, 48.79 percent possession, 14.57 shots allowed.
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. You are not picking a winner against a point spread. You are picking one of three results after 90 minutes plus stoppage: home win, away win, or draw. The draw is a live, separate bet at +240 here. That matters more than American fans expect. If this finishes 1-1, every Coventry ticket and every Sunderland ticket loses. Only the draw backers cash. A roughly three-in-ten chance of a push-free dead loss is the tax you pay on a soccer side bet.
Coventry City win: +220, best at Hard Rock Bet. A $100 bet returns $220 in profit. Draw: +240, best at Courtside. Sunderland win: +135, best at Fanatics. Total goals 2.5 (whether the two teams combine for three or more): Over +100 at Courtside, Under minus 113 at Bally Bet.
Context on the records, with sample sizes attached: Sunderland is 2-5-1 against the spread over 8 graded games and 2-6 on over-unders over 8 games. Coventry is 3-5 ATS over 8 graded games, 1-3 ATS at home, and 4-4 on over-unders over 8. Our Elo rating, which is context and never a bet, has Coventry 57 percent and Sunderland 43 percent over rated samples of 8 and 46 games.
Compare those to the best numbers on the board. That is the widest gap on the board, and it is on the favorite. Expected value is just the long-run average profit per bet. At a thin gap like Coventry's, you are near enough to fair that the price you take decides it. Shopping a +220 instead of a +190 is 30 extra dollars per 100 risked on the same opinion.
Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, Saturday, October 31 at 11:00 AM ET on Peacock. Forecast is 54 degrees with 3 mph wind from the east, so no weather angle. Coventry has 6 days of rest and this is game 2 of a home stand, no travel. Sunderland has 5 days of rest and traveled 173 miles with no time-zone change.
Coventry City to win, +220 at Hard Rock Bet. We are getting plus money on the home side against a visitor with one point from its last five league matches. Take the draw seriously before you bet it.
Low shot volume, low possession, low scoring. Coventry 1, Sunderland 0, decided by one set piece or one counter. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play most days right below this page.
Sunderland is the slight market favorite at +141 (best price at ReBet) on the moneyline, with Coventry City at +210. The draw is priced at +240. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 11:00 AM ET. Coventry City enters on 6 days of rest in game 2 of a home stand with no travel. Sunderland has 5 days of rest and traveled 173 miles with no time-zone change.
The total is 2.5 goals, with Over +100 best at Courtside and Under minus 113 best at Bally Bet. For context with sample sizes, Sunderland is 2-6 on over-unders across 8 games this season and Coventry City is 4-4 across 8 games.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.