Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Best Bet (Nov 1)

Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction: Anfield, Priced Like a Road Game

Liverpool FC are at home, and they are still the underdog. Arsenal FC sit at +156 at the best book we track and Liverpool at +190. Yet the public split shows 75% of moneyline tickets and 91% of the money on the home side. When the crowd and the price disagree, slow down and do the math. That is the job of this Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction.

The Matchup: Second Place Visits Fifth

Arsenal arrive second of 20 in the Premier League with 21 points from eight matches and a +8 goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed). Liverpool sit fifth with 15 points and a +3. In league play, Arsenal's last five read WWWLW. Over their last 10 they have scored 1.6 goals and conceded 0.6 per match.

Liverpool's last five read WWLWD, with 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded. Over eight stored games, Liverpool average 15.38 shots and 4.88 on target per game, and they allow just 2.83 on target per game. Arsenal come in 5 days after their last match and Liverpool 4. Both face a European tie within 4 days after. The last meeting, 297 days ago, ended in a draw.

How Soccer Betting Works (and Why the Draw Matters)

A moneyline is a bet on who wins. A plus number shows your profit on a $100 bet, so Liverpool at +190 pays $190 in profit if they win. Soccer adds a twist called the three-way moneyline. There are three outcomes: Liverpool win, Arsenal win, or a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the match ends level, both win bets lose and only the draw ticket at +250 cashes. That is why every price here is plus money. When you back either club, you are betting against the other club and against the draw.

Who Is Favored to Win Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favored, narrowly. The best Arsenal odds on the board are +156 at Polymarket. The best Liverpool odds are +190 at FanDuel, and the draw tops out at +250 at theScore Bet. Strip out the vig (the house's built-in cut) and the market reads Arsenal 39%, Liverpool 33%, draw 28%. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has Arsenal 53% and Liverpool 47% with no draw option.

That is context only. On total goals 2.5, the Over is -104 at Kalshi and the Under is -104 at Courtside. A minus number is what you risk to win $100. The consensus spread opened Liverpool +1.5 and has not moved, and the total is unchanged at 2.5. Taking the best number every time is the cheapest edge in betting.

Where the Value Is

Expected value, or EV, is what a bet earns on average if you made it thousands of times. That is thin, and we say so. The public split leans hard to Liverpool. On Kalshi, 86% of the money traded on the spread is on Arsenal (40 trades, $622 traded), but trading is light and the share can swing. Against the spread (covering a goal handicap), Liverpool are 1-3 at home and Arsenal are 1-3 on the road. Both clubs are 4-4 ATS overall across 8 graded games. Those are small samples, so we trust the price.

What Time Is the Liverpool vs Arsenal Game, and Where Can You Watch?

Kickoff is Sunday, November 1 at 11:30 AM ET at Anfield in Liverpool. The match airs on NBCSN, Tele and Peacock. The forecast calls for 64 F with a 6 mph wind from the SSE.

The Pick

Arsenal to win at +156 at Polymarket. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play. The number is everything here. Keep the stake small, because a draw beats this ticket too.

The Prediction

Our Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction: Arsenal 2-1. Arsenal concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 10, while Liverpool concede 1.3. That defensive gap is why we will take a road side at plus money. The draw is the real danger, since the last meeting ended level and both clubs face Europe within four days. We pass on the total at -104 both ways. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.